Cubs Brewers Matchup Part 3

Cubs play another series with the Brewers.  Brewers are 2 games back so Cubs just need to win one but winning all three would be nice.  Let’s look at this Brewers team.

MIL Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.9 38.2 284 242 39 26 2.4 2.2 MIL 6/11/2018
8.9 21.8 620 590 77 61 -2.8 2.1 MIL 9/3/2018
13.3 32.2 653 608 82 62 -3.3 2.7 MIL 9/10/2018

Since a week ago when the Cubs last played MIL, Brewers went 5-1 gaining 4 games so they’re on a streak.  Both BAT and PITCH are up but their UR dropped a little.  Let’s hear what the people think of the first game in this series.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_10_8:05_PM MIL CHN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.435 ] < 0.446 > +124 $224
STARTAWAY 2.96(0.709) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.583 ] < 0.573 > -134 $174
STARTHOME 2.18(0.562) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 2

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 4 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.522 MIL 4.61 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 2 == 0.478 CHN 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL    117 103
CHN    83 94

TC simulations have Brewers favored with a break even probability of 0.522 yet the market has Cubs favored at 0.573.  Difference between the two teams according to seasonal wins and losses is 4 giving Cubs the advantage.  Expected Value for MIL is at 117 according to TC simulations, just below our 120 threshold.  Since deltaWAA is much closer to the lines that EV for MIL is only 103 which would wave this off.

Milwaukee has better relief according to the above but that still takes into account expanded rosters.  If you only count the top 7,  Cubs’ relief is probably Tier 1.  This should make CHN favored with TCsims.   The next matchup and Cubs status will only count the top 7 relievers on a staff and compute those averages and deviations league wide.

Both teams have comparable lineups and starters according to current year data.  Wade Miley is having a career year this season. Let’s look at his career according to this data model.

Wade Miley Career

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2011 -0.5 Wade_Miley_ARI PITCH XXXXX
2012 3.3 Wade_Miley_ARI PITCH +073+
2013 1.0 Wade_Miley_ARI PITCH XXXXX
2014 -2.7 Wade_Miley_ARI PITCH -060-
2015 -2.3 Wade_Miley_BOS PITCH -091-
2016 -2.2 Wade_Miley_SEA PITCH -012-
2016 -2.5 Wade_Miley_BAL PITCH -012-
2017 -4.6 Wade_Miley_BAL PITCH -017-
2018 3.0 Wade_Miley_MIL PITCH +071+
Total -7.5

As always, past results don’t affect future results.  They only show proven capability.

MIL Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 MIL 12.14
SP 3 Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.57
SP 2 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 2.04
SP 3 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL -0.84
SP 3 Junior_Guerra_MIL -0.48
SP 2 Wade_Miley_MIL 2.96
RP 2 MIL 7.60

This starting rotation looks like the Cubs’.  Let’s look at MIL Relief and lineup from yesterday.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+032+ 4.35 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
+052+ 3.32 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.32 Dan_Jennings_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.07 Xavier_Cedeno_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.84 Joakim_Soria_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.80 Corbin_Burnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.76 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.06 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.27 Taylor_Williams_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.40 Corey_Knebel_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.48 Jordan_Lyles_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.48 Freddy_Peralta_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.80 Zach_Davies_MIL PITCH
-079- -2.27 Matt_Albers_MIL PITCH
Total 7.7

This relief staff might be Tier 1 if we only count the top seven.  Right now league average relief is 1.51 per team with the Tier 2 boundary = 5.1.  These averages are  down from August because of expanded rosters.  Next reports will only count top seven for RP value.  Expanded rosters don’t matter to lineups and starters because they are what they are.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_9_2:10_PM
-1.09 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 537
5.82 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 555
5.84 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 479
1.07 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 384
0.42 Jonathan_Schoop_TOT 2B-SS 458
1.26 Mike_Moustakas_TOT 3B-DH 554
-0.61 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-RF-3B-LF-SS 304
-0.21 Erik_Kratz_MIL CR 172
-0.36 Zach_Davies_MIL BAT 15
Total WAA=12.14 PA=3458 WinPct=0.567

There is a disagreement with WAR over Lorenzo Cain who is now getting the Darwin Barney treatment.  But that doesn’t matter.  Cain has below average run production and that’s a provable fact.  Yelich and Aguilar are the two power hitters propelling the Brewers.  Their BAT in team status is slightly above average yet this lineup is considered Tier 2, well above average.  Tier 1 boundary is 12.79 so they’re right at that border.

Cubs lineup yesterday was +10.50 but it fluctuates higher some days.  Another Cubs status coming next.  Until then ….