Cubs play another series with the Brewers. Brewers are 2 games back so Cubs just need to win one but winning all three would be nice. Let’s look at this Brewers team.
MIL Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.9 | 38.2 | 284 | 242 | 39 | 26 | 2.4 | 2.2 | MIL | 6/11/2018 |
| 8.9 | 21.8 | 620 | 590 | 77 | 61 | -2.8 | 2.1 | MIL | 9/3/2018 |
| 13.3 | 32.2 | 653 | 608 | 82 | 62 | -3.3 | 2.7 | MIL | 9/10/2018 |
Since a week ago when the Cubs last played MIL, Brewers went 5-1 gaining 4 games so they’re on a streak. Both BAT and PITCH are up but their UR dropped a little. Let’s hear what the people think of the first game in this series.
Ouija Board
DATE 09_10_8:05_PM MIL CHN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.435 ] < 0.446 > +124 $224
STARTAWAY 2.96(0.709) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.583 ] < 0.573 > -134 $174
STARTHOME 2.18(0.562) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 2
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 4 WINPCT 0.542 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.522 MIL 4.61 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 2 == 0.478 CHN 4.38 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL 117 103
CHN 83 94
TC simulations have Brewers favored with a break even probability of 0.522 yet the market has Cubs favored at 0.573. Difference between the two teams according to seasonal wins and losses is 4 giving Cubs the advantage. Expected Value for MIL is at 117 according to TC simulations, just below our 120 threshold. Since deltaWAA is much closer to the lines that EV for MIL is only 103 which would wave this off.
Milwaukee has better relief according to the above but that still takes into account expanded rosters. If you only count the top 7, Cubs’ relief is probably Tier 1. This should make CHN favored with TCsims. The next matchup and Cubs status will only count the top 7 relievers on a staff and compute those averages and deviations league wide.
Both teams have comparable lineups and starters according to current year data. Wade Miley is having a career year this season. Let’s look at his career according to this data model.
Wade Miley Career
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -0.5 | Wade_Miley_ARI | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2012 | 3.3 | Wade_Miley_ARI | PITCH | +073+ | |
| 2013 | 1.0 | Wade_Miley_ARI | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2014 | -2.7 | Wade_Miley_ARI | PITCH | -060- | |
| 2015 | -2.3 | Wade_Miley_BOS | PITCH | -091- | |
| 2016 | -2.2 | Wade_Miley_SEA | PITCH | -012- | |
| 2016 | -2.5 | Wade_Miley_BAL | PITCH | -012- | |
| 2017 | -4.6 | Wade_Miley_BAL | PITCH | -017- | |
| 2018 | 3.0 | Wade_Miley_MIL | PITCH | +071+ | |
| Total | -7.5 |
As always, past results don’t affect future results. They only show proven capability.
MIL Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 2 | MIL | 12.14 | |
| SP | 3 | Chase_Anderson_MIL | 0.57 | |
| SP | 2 | Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL | 2.04 | |
| SP | 3 | Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | -0.84 | |
| SP | 3 | Junior_Guerra_MIL | -0.48 | |
| SP | 2 | Wade_Miley_MIL | 2.96 | |
| RP | 2 | MIL | 7.60 |
This starting rotation looks like the Cubs’. Let’s look at MIL Relief and lineup from yesterday.
MIL Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +032+ | 4.35 | Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL | PITCH | |
| +052+ | 3.32 | Josh_Hader_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.32 | Dan_Jennings_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.07 | Xavier_Cedeno_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Joakim_Soria_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.80 | Corbin_Burnes_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.76 | Jacob_Barnes_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.06 | Brandon_Woodruff_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | Taylor_Williams_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Corey_Knebel_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Jordan_Lyles_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Freddy_Peralta_MIL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.80 | Zach_Davies_MIL | PITCH | |
| -079- | -2.27 | Matt_Albers_MIL | PITCH | |
| Total | 7.7 |
This relief staff might be Tier 1 if we only count the top seven. Right now league average relief is 1.51 per team with the Tier 2 boundary = 5.1. These averages are down from August because of expanded rosters. Next reports will only count top seven for RP value. Expanded rosters don’t matter to lineups and starters because they are what they are.
MIL Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Sep_9_2:10_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.09 | Lorenzo_Cain_MIL | CF | 537 | |
| 5.82 | Christian_Yelich_MIL | LF-RF-CF | 555 | |
| 5.84 | Jesus_Aguilar_MIL | 1B | 479 | |
| 1.07 | Ryan_Braun_MIL | LF-1B | 384 | |
| 0.42 | Jonathan_Schoop_TOT | 2B-SS | 458 | |
| 1.26 | Mike_Moustakas_TOT | 3B-DH | 554 | |
| -0.61 | Hernan_Perez_MIL | 2B-RF-3B-LF-SS | 304 | |
| -0.21 | Erik_Kratz_MIL | CR | 172 | |
| -0.36 | Zach_Davies_MIL | BAT | 15 | |
| Total | WAA=12.14 | PA=3458 | WinPct=0.567 |
There is a disagreement with WAR over Lorenzo Cain who is now getting the Darwin Barney treatment. But that doesn’t matter. Cain has below average run production and that’s a provable fact. Yelich and Aguilar are the two power hitters propelling the Brewers. Their BAT in team status is slightly above average yet this lineup is considered Tier 2, well above average. Tier 1 boundary is 12.79 so they’re right at that border.
Cubs lineup yesterday was +10.50 but it fluctuates higher some days. Another Cubs status coming next. Until then ….