Cubs Status 9/12/2018

It has been almost two weeks since we did Cubs status.  Let’s look at this Cubs team two weeks from the end of the season.

CHN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
58.6 39.7 565 460 66 47 5.0 1.7 CHN 8/8/2018
38.7 44.9 586 494 71 50 7.0 1.3 CHN 8/18/2018
43.5 57.7 638 527 78 54 8.8 1.0 CHN 8/30/2018
42.0 60.8 688 577 84 60 6.2 2.1 CHN 9/12/2018

Above are team status records for today and the last three times we did this.  Since end of August BAT flat, PITCH flat and the Cubs went 6-6.  This is considered going sideways which is better than tanking. In the last almost a month the Cubs went from +19 to +24 gaining only 5 games.  A baseball season is a slow moving marathon and we’re almost at the finish line.

Since Milwaukee has been streaking Cubs are only 2 games up on them (deltaWAA=4) after the win last night.

Unearned Runs above average (UR) down for the first time in a long time.

Top Cubs

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+008+ 6.70 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B
+195+ 3.19 Cole_Hamels_CHN PITCH
+078+ 2.86 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+082+ 2.83 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+106+ 2.42 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+146+ 2.06 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+156+ 1.95 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
+161+ 1.89 Brandon_Morrow_CHN PITCH
+178+ 1.76 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
+093+ 1.74 Jesse_Chavez_CHN PITCH
+192+ 1.68 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF-LF
XXXXX 1.60 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH

An average MLB team will have 6 or 7 guys in top 200, Cubs have 11 so that’s above average going into the final stretch of the season.  Rizzo’s WAR is up to 2.3 ranking him #156 in their system.  WAR still under values him but not as egregious as earlier in the season.

Javier Baez still leads NL MVP.  J.D Martinez of Boston has a commanding lead over his teammate Mookie Betts for AL MVP.  Boston will be tough to beat but that’s fodder for playoff horse race.

The above sorts on CHN records.  Cole Hamels is ranked second in top Cubs based upon his time with the Cubs but he had negative value with the Rangers making him still a Tier 3 average pitcher.  Steve Cishek leads relievers and ranked third among Cubs players.

CHN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 CHN 11.28
SP 3 Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.74
SP 3 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.60
SP 2 Jon_Lester_CHN 2.06
SP 3 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 0.67
SP 3 Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.53
RP 3 CHN 1.62

That’s a pretty average starting rotation going into the playoffs.  The Tier 1/2 boundary for lineups  is now a whopping +15.60.  The next playoff horse race post will show which teams are raising the curve for lineups.  Finally, let’s look at a detailed break down of Cubs relief staff.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+078+ 2.86 Steve_Cishek_CHN PITCH
+093+ 2.58 Jesse_Chavez_TOT PITCH
+106+ 2.42 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
+156+ 1.95 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.43 Justin_Wilson_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.78 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.46 Jorge_De_La_Rosa_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.17 Alec_Mills_CHN PITCH
XXXXX -0.32 James_Norwood_CHN PITCH
XXXXX -0.40 Brandon_Kintzler_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.73 Dillon_Maples_CHN PITCH
-041- -2.86 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN PITCH
-032- -3.09 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
-018- -3.70 Jaime_Garcia_TOT PITCH
Total 1.55

Four guys on this staff ranked in top 200.  Still haven’t modified the code to only count top 7 for these expanded September rosters.  The 3 guys at the bottom of this list drag Cubs RP from Tier 1 to Tier 3 which is not right.  Cubs RP for playoffs most likely will be solid Tier 1 which may be needed to shore up their average starting rotation.  More on this later.

Blast From the Past 2017

Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
37.9 41.4 716 640 78 66 -6.3 3.0 CHN  9/12/2017

Cubs were only +12 last season on this day but the NL Central was much weaker.  Both BAT and PITCH better this season but that should be expected.  UR also much better this season which is always a good sign.

Top Cubs 9/12/2017

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 4.75 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B-2B
+079+ 3.36 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+097+ 2.92 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+103+ 2.75 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
+113+ 2.56 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS
+118+ 2.52 Wade_Davis_CHN PITCH
+137+ 2.25 Ian_Happ_CHN CF-2B-LF-RF
+138+ 2.23 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
+158+ 2.02 Mike_Montgomery_CHN PITCH
+175+ 1.76 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
XXXXX 1.53 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.39 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH

Every season is different.  Some players go up others go down and hopefully the aggregate  remains the same.

That is all for now.  A new series with the Reds starts Friday.  Not sure if the WAS makeup game is tomorrow but the logistics of playing that game seem impossible and unfair to the Cubs who don’t really have the NL Central locked up.  Playoff Horse Race Part 3 coming mid September.  Until then ….