It has been almost two weeks since we did Cubs status. Let’s look at this Cubs team two weeks from the end of the season.
CHN Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.6 | 39.7 | 565 | 460 | 66 | 47 | 5.0 | 1.7 | CHN | 8/8/2018 |
| 38.7 | 44.9 | 586 | 494 | 71 | 50 | 7.0 | 1.3 | CHN | 8/18/2018 |
| 43.5 | 57.7 | 638 | 527 | 78 | 54 | 8.8 | 1.0 | CHN | 8/30/2018 |
| 42.0 | 60.8 | 688 | 577 | 84 | 60 | 6.2 | 2.1 | CHN | 9/12/2018 |
Above are team status records for today and the last three times we did this. Since end of August BAT flat, PITCH flat and the Cubs went 6-6. This is considered going sideways which is better than tanking. In the last almost a month the Cubs went from +19 to +24 gaining only 5 games. A baseball season is a slow moving marathon and we’re almost at the finish line.
Since Milwaukee has been streaking Cubs are only 2 games up on them (deltaWAA=4) after the win last night.
Unearned Runs above average (UR) down for the first time in a long time.
Top Cubs
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +008+ | 6.70 | Javier_Baez_CHN | 2B-SS-3B | |
| +195+ | 3.19 | Cole_Hamels_CHN | PITCH | |
| +078+ | 2.86 | Steve_Cishek_CHN | PITCH | |
| +082+ | 2.83 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | |
| +106+ | 2.42 | Pedro_Strop_CHN | PITCH | |
| +146+ | 2.06 | Jon_Lester_CHN | PITCH | |
| +156+ | 1.95 | Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN | PITCH | |
| +161+ | 1.89 | Brandon_Morrow_CHN | PITCH | |
| +178+ | 1.76 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF-CF | |
| +093+ | 1.74 | Jesse_Chavez_CHN | PITCH | |
| +192+ | 1.68 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | 2B-RF-LF | |
| XXXXX | 1.60 | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | PITCH |
An average MLB team will have 6 or 7 guys in top 200, Cubs have 11 so that’s above average going into the final stretch of the season. Rizzo’s WAR is up to 2.3 ranking him #156 in their system. WAR still under values him but not as egregious as earlier in the season.
Javier Baez still leads NL MVP. J.D Martinez of Boston has a commanding lead over his teammate Mookie Betts for AL MVP. Boston will be tough to beat but that’s fodder for playoff horse race.
The above sorts on CHN records. Cole Hamels is ranked second in top Cubs based upon his time with the Cubs but he had negative value with the Rangers making him still a Tier 3 average pitcher. Steve Cishek leads relievers and ranked third among Cubs players.
CHN Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 2 | CHN | 11.28 | |
| SP | 3 | Cole_Hamels_CHN | 1.74 | |
| SP | 3 | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 1.60 | |
| SP | 2 | Jon_Lester_CHN | 2.06 | |
| SP | 3 | Mike_Montgomery_CHN | 0.67 | |
| SP | 3 | Jose_Quintana_CHN | 0.53 | |
| RP | 3 | CHN | 1.62 |
That’s a pretty average starting rotation going into the playoffs. The Tier 1/2 boundary for lineups is now a whopping +15.60. The next playoff horse race post will show which teams are raising the curve for lineups. Finally, let’s look at a detailed break down of Cubs relief staff.
CHN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +078+ | 2.86 | Steve_Cishek_CHN | PITCH | |
| +093+ | 2.58 | Jesse_Chavez_TOT | PITCH | |
| +106+ | 2.42 | Pedro_Strop_CHN | PITCH | |
| +156+ | 1.95 | Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.43 | Justin_Wilson_CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.78 | Randy_Rosario_CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.46 | Jorge_De_La_Rosa_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Alec_Mills_CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.32 | James_Norwood_CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Brandon_Kintzler_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.73 | Dillon_Maples_CHN | PITCH | |
| -041- | -2.86 | Tyler_Chatwood_CHN | PITCH | |
| -032- | -3.09 | Brian_Duensing_CHN | PITCH | |
| -018- | -3.70 | Jaime_Garcia_TOT | PITCH | |
| Total | 1.55 |
Four guys on this staff ranked in top 200. Still haven’t modified the code to only count top 7 for these expanded September rosters. The 3 guys at the bottom of this list drag Cubs RP from Tier 1 to Tier 3 which is not right. Cubs RP for playoffs most likely will be solid Tier 1 which may be needed to shore up their average starting rotation. More on this later.
Blast From the Past 2017
Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.9 | 41.4 | 716 | 640 | 78 | 66 | -6.3 | 3.0 | CHN | 9/12/2017 |
Cubs were only +12 last season on this day but the NL Central was much weaker. Both BAT and PITCH better this season but that should be expected. UR also much better this season which is always a good sign.
Top Cubs 9/12/2017
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +027+ | 4.75 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B-2B | |
| +079+ | 3.36 | Jake_Arrieta_CHN | PITCH | |
| +097+ | 2.92 | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | PITCH | |
| +103+ | 2.75 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | CR | |
| +113+ | 2.56 | Javier_Baez_CHN | 2B-SS | |
| +118+ | 2.52 | Wade_Davis_CHN | PITCH | |
| +137+ | 2.25 | Ian_Happ_CHN | CF-2B-LF-RF | |
| +138+ | 2.23 | Brian_Duensing_CHN | PITCH | |
| +158+ | 2.02 | Mike_Montgomery_CHN | PITCH | |
| +175+ | 1.76 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | |
| XXXXX | 1.53 | Pedro_Strop_CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.39 | Carl_Edwards_CHN | PITCH |
Every season is different. Some players go up others go down and hopefully the aggregate remains the same.
That is all for now. A new series with the Reds starts Friday. Not sure if the WAS makeup game is tomorrow but the logistics of playing that game seem impossible and unfair to the Cubs who don’t really have the NL Central locked up. Playoff Horse Race Part 3 coming mid September. Until then ….