Cubs Reds Matchup Part 4

Cubs play the Reds again at Wrigley Field as they wind down the season.  Let’s take a look at the current Reds team once again.

CIN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-3.9 -52.0 315 376 28 45 0.1 -1.2 CIN 6/21/2018
28.1 -48.1 407 440 38 49 -7.5 -1.5 CIN 7/6/2018
10.0 -67.9 575 642 56 71 -8.5 -0.6 CIN 8/23/2018
18.3 -89.5 668 760 63 84 -20.4 -0.6 CIN 9/14/2018

The above shows Reds team status records for today and the last three times we did this.  PITCH continues to tank for them but BAT is staying above water.  They went 7-13 in the last three weeks losing 6 games. UR tanked badly making them neck and neck with the Chicago White Sox for worst team fielding.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_14_8:05_PM CIN CHN

LINEAWAY CIN [ 0.317 ] < 0.345 > +190 $290
STARTAWAY -2.37(0.423) Matt_Harvey_TOT TIER 5
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.701 ] < 0.688 > -220 $145
STARTHOME 1.74(0.548) Cole_Hamels_TOT TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 45 WINPCT 0.664 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CIN Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.454 CIN 4.30 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> CIN Starter 5 / Relief 2 == 0.546 CHN 4.78 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CIN    132 84
CHN    79 103

Cubs are heavily favored in this game at 0.688 break even probability.  TC simulations give the Cubs only 0.546 leading to a rather large Expected Value of 132 betting CIN using that category as reference.  Cubs relief is back to Tier 1 because the code only looks at the top seven relievers for all teams to eliminate bias incurred from expanded rosters.  Cole Hamels, however, is still saddled with his negative TEX value making him Tier 3.  There isn’t anything that can be done about that.  Hamels did have a bad June and that must be reflected in his pitching capability.

The difference between wins and losses between these two teams gives the Cubs a 0.664 probability aligning closely to the market.  This trumps the TCsim EV so both lines a discard.  Hamels is currently pitching much better than Tier 3 and Harvey is pitching like the pitcher who the Mets got rid of earlier in the season.

CIN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 CIN 8.40
SP 5 Homer_Bailey_CIN -4.85
SP 4 Luis_Castillo_CIN -1.87
SP 4 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN -1.53
SP 5 Matt_Harvey_CIN -2.35
SP 5 Sal_Romano_CIN -3.97
RP 2 CIN 9.91

League average lineup is high at 4.53/team now making the Reds Tier 3, close to Tier 2 above average, based upon their lineup yesterday.  This would be expected based upon their BAT in team status. Lots of bad starters who responsible for dragging down their PITCH in team status.

Relief pitching (RP) league average is +7.30/team after lopping off the bottom half of all relief staffs.  New guys come into the league with a WAA=0 and it takes playing time to move up or down from there.  Since many bad relief pitchers are not being counted the league average rose.  IMHO, this is better than counting 6 pitchers, many of whom are there to sit on the bench or pitch garbage innings.  This will only be done for expanded rosters in September.  Reds used to have a top tier relief staff but players get lackadaisical when losing so much.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+042+ 3.82 Jared_Hughes_CIN PITCH
+104+ 2.46 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN PITCH
+113+ 2.37 David_Hernandez_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 1.32 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN PITCH
XXXXX 0.29 Jesus_Reyes_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.36 Matt_Wisler_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.46 Amir_Garrett_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.59 Wandy_Peralta_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.63 Cody_Reed_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -1.20 Jackson_Stephens_CIN PITCH
XXXXX -1.22 Lucas_Sims_TOT PITCH
-084- -2.21 Tyler_Mahle_CIN PITCH
Total 3.59

Above is their complete relief staff.  Three guys in the top 200 which isn’t bad.

CIN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_11_6:40_PM
1.49 Scott_Schebler_CIN RF-CF 363
-0.78 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 609
3.97 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 576
5.80 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 539
0.99 Phil_Ervin_CIN LF-RF 196
0.10 Curt_Casali_CIN CR 130
-0.23 Brandon_Dixon_CIN 1B-RF 104
-0.06 Gabriel_Guerrero_CIN BAT 3
-0.67 Luis_Castillo_CIN PR 56
Total WAA=10.60 PA=2576 WinPct=0.579

Above is a Tier 2 lineup from 9/11.  The TC sims used their lineup from 9/12.  Ideally we would wait until lineups come out to do simulations and handicapping but all of this is for academic purposes and can’t wait until this evening to post this.  The above, and even their lineup on 9/12, could cause Cubs’ pitchers some problems.

That is all for today.  Playoff horse race Part 3, the mid September edition, may use today’s data and be posted tonight or tomorrow morning.  Until then ….