Cubs Diamondbacks Matchup

Cubs start a series with Diamondbacks tonight which starts very late (8:40pm) here in CST land.  Let’s take a look see at this Arizona team who still have a shot at a playoff spot with some good fortune.

ARI Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-10.4 58.5 654 594 78 72 9.8 1.1 ARI

BAT slightly underwater, PITCH very good and ARI is 78-72 = +6 for the season according to the only stat in baseball that matters.  UR among the top of MLB which means they don’t let up very many runs due to errors.  Not much else can be said about this team just looking at their team status record.  Let’s see what the people think about tonight.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_17_9:40_PM CHN ARI

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.448 ] < 0.444 > +125 $225
STARTAWAY 1.57(0.541) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME ARI [ 0.571 ] < 0.574 > -135 $174
STARTHOME 4.56(0.610) Patrick_Corbin_ARI TIER 1

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 19 WINPCT 0.619 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 3 ==> ARI Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.464 CHN 3.95 runs
ARI Lineup 3 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.536 ARI 4.30 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    104 139
ARI    93 66

The people give Arizona a 57.4% break even probability of winning tonight and the Cubs 44.4%.  Tier Combo simulations favor ARI at 53.6% giving the Cubs a slightly above 100 EV for that category, far below our 120 threshold.  Based upon seasonal wins and losses, completely blind to who is playing tonight, the Cubs should be favored at close to 62% giving them a 139 EV for that category.  We only wave off bets using deltaWAA never make them so both lines an easy discard tonight.

The above tells us that the people still have faith in Arizona.

The CHN lineup was culled from yesterday which was one of their weakest set of players making them Tier 3, average.   Cubs usually field a lineup close to the Tier 1/2 border which will shift the simulations in favor of the Cubs somewhat.

ARI Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 3 ARI 8.04
SP 1 Patrick_Corbin_ARI 4.56
SP 5 Zack_Godley_ARI -2.69
SP 1 Zack_Greinke_ARI 4.33
SP 3 Robbie_Ray_ARI -0.10
RP 2 ARI 9.79

ARI has a couple of aces in Corbin and Greinke and then their SP falls off from there.  Currently the Tier 2/3 border for lineups is at 8.33 so ARI’s lineup is close.  Simulations do not use hard borders however.  Cubs lineup will probably be close to 1 tier above ARI when tonight’s lineups are announced.

ARI Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+054+ 3.53 T.J._McFarland_ARI PITCH
+076+ 2.94 Yoshihisa_Hirano_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 1.57 Andrew_Chafin_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Archie_Bradley_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 0.61 Brad_Ziegler_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.48 Silvino_Bracho_ARI PITCH
XXXXX 0.36 Jimmie_Sherfy_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.17 Randall_Delgado_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.32 Jake_Diekman_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.38 Yoan_Lopez_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.44 Brad_Boxberger_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -0.69 Matt_Koch_ARI PITCH
XXXXX -1.09 Matt_Andriese_TOT PITCH
Total 7.11

Two relievers in top 100 who the Cubs hopefully don’t face when behind.  WAR only has two relievers in top 100; Blake Tiernen #57 and Jared Hughes #95.  This model has 20 with the highest being Blake Treinen of OAK at #18.  Relievers, no matter what inning they usually pitch, are very important to the success of a team.

The above total is for their entire expanded roster relief staff.  The Tier 2/3 border is +9.33 for relief now and their top 7 is above that as shown in the Tier Data table.

ARI Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_16_2:10_PM
-1.76 Jon_Jay_TOT RF-LF-CF 556
2.06 A.J._Pollock_ARI CF 416
2.35 David_Peralta_ARI LF 572
3.00 Paul_Goldschmidt_ARI 1B 650
2.06 Eduardo_Escobar_TOT 3B-SS 587
1.57 Daniel_Descalso_ARI 2B-3B 397
-0.69 Ketel_Marte_ARI 2B-SS 536
0.86 Nick_Ahmed_ARI SS 520
-1.41 Jeff_Mathis_ARI CR 200
Total WAA=8.04 PA=4434 WinPct=0.535

Tier 2/3 boundary for lineups is 8.34/team so the above is very close to that.

That is all for now.  There might be an article coming soon about Giancarlo Stanton who was supposed to break a home run record because he’s playing in Yankees stadium.  Until then ….