This is the second set of games with the White Sox. Missed yesterday which was the opener and the Cubs lost. Let’s take a look at the current White Sox team.
CHA Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -42.3 | -84.1 | 633 | 789 | 61 | 92 | -24.6 | -7.9 | CHA |
Terrible hitting, worse pitching yet this team scored 10 runs yesterday. Unearend Runs above average is the absolute worst in MLB. Those are real games lost due to fielding errors. The above represents a seasonal number and may not reflect the talent they have playing today. Let’s hear from the people, which sometimes includes White Sox fans 🙂
Ouija Board
DATE 09_22_7:10_PM CHN CHA
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.677 ] < 0.667 > -200 $150
STARTAWAY 2.60(0.569) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 2
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LINEHOME CHA [ 0.361 ] < 0.357 > +180 $280
STARTHOME -6.07(0.335) Lucas_Giolito_CHA TIER 5
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 56 WINPCT 0.711 CHN
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TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 1 ==> CHA Starter 5 / Relief 5 == 0.635 CHN 5.14 runs
CHA Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.365 CHA 3.72 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN 95 107
CHA 102 81
Cubs a 2-1 favorite (0.667) today. Lineup tiers are from yesterday where the Cubs fielded a Tier 1, WAA=+15.67 lineup, their best set of hitters. The above Tier Combo simulation is almost the largest disparities in value possible between two teams giving the Cubs a 0.635 break even probability.
Based upon the difference in wins and losses (deltaWAA) the Cubs have a max 0.711 chance. The relationship is unknown between deltaWAA, blind about current talent and who is playing, and TC simulations, blind about seasonal win/loss records.
The Expected Values shown for each category hover around 100 making each line a discard.
CHA Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 5 | CHA | -4.96 | |
| SP | 5 | Dylan_Covey_CHA | -2.94 | |
| SP | 5 | Lucas_Giolito_CHA | -6.11 | |
| SP | 3 | Reynaldo_Lopez_CHA | 1.05 | |
| SP | 2 | Carlos_Rodon_CHA | 2.65 | |
| SP | 4 | James_Shields_CHA | -1.36 | |
| RP | 5 | CHA | 2.06 |
White Sox have a terrible lineup, terrible relief, and 3 out of 5 starters terrible. That didn’t stop them from scoring 10 runs yesterday however. Their worst pitcher is pitching tonight.
CHA Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.34 | Nate_Jones_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Juan_Minaya_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Rob_Scahill_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Ryan_Burr_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.06 | Ian_Hamilton_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.10 | Jose_Ruiz_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Jace_Fry_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Aaron_Bummer_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.42 | Hector_Santiago_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.44 | Caleb_Frare_CHA | PITCH | |
| -149- | -1.74 | Thyago_Vieira_CHA | PITCH | |
| Total | -1.44 |
This is a young team so most of above are hovering around 0, from which they start in the league at day 0. The simulations only count the top seven. League average relief is now +7.34/team and the Tier 4/5 boundary at +3.70/team.
CHA Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Sep_21_4:10_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | Tim_Anderson_CHA | SS | 573 | |
| 0.44 | Jose_Rondon_CHA | DH | 89 | |
| 0.90 | Avisail_Garcia_CHA | RF | 345 | |
| 0.27 | Matt_Davidson_CHA | DH-1B-3B | 448 | |
| -0.92 | Welington_Castillo_CHA | CR | 158 | |
| -0.50 | Kevan_Smith_CHA | CR | 162 | |
| -1.36 | Yoan_Moncada_CHA | 2B | 605 | |
| -1.01 | Ryan_LaMarre_TOT | CF-LF | 167 | |
| -2.81 | Adam_Engel_CHA | CF | 437 | |
| Total | WAA=-4.96 | PA=2984 | WinPct=0.468 |
The Tier 4/5 boundary for lineups is now -4.10. Like their relief, lots of guys hovering around zero, a couple pulling it down, and no one pulling it up. They scored 10 runs yesterday proving no one can predict the future and past results don’t affect future results, they only show capability.
White Sox could have an epiphany and play like this is their World Series where the Cubs just want clinch and go home. None of that can be measured and modeled mathematically. We’ll see what happens tonight when we travel into the future.
Final regular season playoff horse race table coming Monday or Tuesday. Until then ….