Cubs White Sox Matchup Part 2

This is the second set of games with the White Sox. Missed yesterday which was the opener and the Cubs lost.  Let’s take a look at the current White Sox team.

CHA Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-42.3 -84.1 633 789 61 92 -24.6 -7.9 CHA

Terrible hitting, worse pitching yet this team scored 10 runs yesterday.  Unearend Runs above average is the absolute worst in MLB.  Those are real games lost due to fielding errors.  The above represents a seasonal number and may not reflect the talent they have playing today.  Let’s hear from the people, which sometimes includes White Sox fans :-)

Ouija Board

DATE 09_22_7:10_PM CHN CHA

LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.677 ] < 0.667 > -200 $150
STARTAWAY 2.60(0.569) Jon_Lester_CHN TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHA [ 0.361 ] < 0.357 > +180 $280
STARTHOME -6.07(0.335) Lucas_Giolito_CHA TIER 5

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 56 WINPCT 0.711 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CHN Lineup 1 ==> CHA Starter 5 / Relief 5 == 0.635 CHN 5.14 runs
CHA Lineup 5 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.365 CHA 3.72 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CHN    95 107
CHA   102 81

Cubs a 2-1 favorite (0.667) today.  Lineup tiers are from yesterday where the Cubs fielded a Tier 1, WAA=+15.67 lineup, their best set of hitters.   The above Tier Combo simulation is almost the largest disparities in value possible between two teams giving the Cubs a 0.635 break even probability.

Based upon the difference in wins and losses (deltaWAA) the Cubs have a max 0.711 chance.  The relationship is unknown between deltaWAA, blind about current talent and who is playing, and TC simulations, blind about seasonal win/loss records.

The Expected Values shown for each category hover around 100 making each line a discard.

CHA Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 5 CHA -4.96
SP 5 Dylan_Covey_CHA -2.94
SP 5 Lucas_Giolito_CHA -6.11
SP 3 Reynaldo_Lopez_CHA 1.05
SP 2 Carlos_Rodon_CHA 2.65
SP 4 James_Shields_CHA -1.36
RP 5 CHA 2.06

White Sox have a terrible lineup, terrible relief, and 3 out of 5 starters terrible.  That didn’t stop them from scoring 10 runs yesterday however.  Their worst pitcher is pitching tonight.

CHA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 1.34 Nate_Jones_CHA PITCH
XXXXX 0.69 Juan_Minaya_CHA PITCH
XXXXX 0.17 Rob_Scahill_CHA PITCH
XXXXX 0.02 Ryan_Burr_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.06 Ian_Hamilton_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Jose_Ruiz_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.23 Jace_Fry_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.27 Jeanmar_Gomez_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.40 Aaron_Bummer_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.42 Hector_Santiago_CHA PITCH
XXXXX -0.44 Caleb_Frare_CHA PITCH
-149- -1.74 Thyago_Vieira_CHA PITCH
Total -1.44

This is a young team so most of above are hovering around 0, from which they start in the league at day 0.  The simulations only count the top seven.  League average relief is now +7.34/team and the Tier 4/5 boundary at +3.70/team.

CHA Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_21_4:10_PM
0.25 Tim_Anderson_CHA SS 573
0.44 Jose_Rondon_CHA DH 89
0.90 Avisail_Garcia_CHA RF 345
0.27 Matt_Davidson_CHA DH-1B-3B 448
-0.92 Welington_Castillo_CHA CR 158
-0.50 Kevan_Smith_CHA CR 162
-1.36 Yoan_Moncada_CHA 2B 605
-1.01 Ryan_LaMarre_TOT CF-LF 167
-2.81 Adam_Engel_CHA CF 437
Total WAA=-4.96 PA=2984 WinPct=0.468

The Tier 4/5 boundary for lineups is now -4.10.  Like their relief, lots of guys hovering around zero, a couple pulling it down, and no one pulling it up.  They scored 10 runs yesterday proving no one can predict the future and past results don’t affect future results, they only show capability.

White Sox could have an epiphany and play like this is their World Series where the Cubs just want clinch and go home.  None of that can be measured and modeled mathematically.  We’ll see what happens tonight when we travel into the future.

Final regular season playoff horse race table coming Monday or Tuesday.  Until then ….