Brewers Status 9/26/2018

No.   I’m not praising our new overlords.  This data model can run status reports on any team, any year, any day.  The Brewers are 1/2 game behind the Cubs right now.   Ruh Roh!  Before panic sets in, let’s take a look at a team status complete report for the Milwaukee Brewers today.

MIL Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.9 38.2 284 242 39 26 2.4 2.2 MIL 6/11/2018
8.9 21.8 620 590 77 61 -2.8 2.1 MIL 9/3/2018
13.3 32.2 653 608 82 62 -3.3 2.7 MIL 9/10/2018
22.2 53.6 726 647 91 67 -1.6 4.7 MIL 9/26/2018

The above table shows team status records for today and the last three times the Cubs played the Brewers.  Both pitching and hitting up a lot since 9/10 and the Brewers went 9-5 gaining 4 games for a real WAA = 91-67 = +24.  The Cubs are +25.   The above shows pitching is still carrying this team as it was the beginning of June.

Top Brewers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+008+ 7.48 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF
+014+ 6.24 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B
+032+ 4.72 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
+069+ 3.30 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
+074+ 3.25 Wade_Miley_MIL PITCH
+115+ 2.52 Travis_Shaw_MIL 3B-2B-1B
+145+ 2.16 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL PITCH
+185+ 1.81 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B
XXXXX 1.62 Eric_Thames_MIL RF-1B-LF
XXXXX 1.34 Dan_Jennings_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.24 Corbin_Burnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.86 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH

Team status records represent seasonal numbers that may or may not reflect the value of talent currently playing.  MIL has 5 guys in the top 100 which is extremely good.  Cubs only have 4 with Lester and Hendricks barely making it at #97 and #99 respectively.

The above table sorts on MIL records and does not discern who is or isn’t on their current roster.

Yelich must be having a good run because he now leads NL MVP according to this data model.  Javier Baez dropped to #11 with a WAA=7.31.  This is close enough to be considered a toss up where other attributes like defense could tip the scales.

It is very difficult staying in the top ten of the league and Baez has been there week after week for most of the season.  There are still 5 games left for the Cubs however and things can change for better or for worse so we’ll see.  Let’s look at tier data.

MIL Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 MIL 11.55
SP 3 Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.69
SP 2 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 2.16
SP 3 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL -0.84
SP 3 Zach_Davies_MIL -0.76
SP 2 Wade_Miley_MIL 3.25
RP 1 MIL 13.15

Tier 1/2 border for lineups was +14.76 for lineups and +11.45 for relief (RP).  Their relief is second in MLB only behind Oakland as we saw in the last playoff horse race post.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+032+ 4.72 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
+069+ 3.30 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.34 Dan_Jennings_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 Xavier_Cedeno_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 1.26 Joakim_Soria_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 1.24 Corbin_Burnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.86 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.40 Corey_Knebel_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.29 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.02 Taylor_Williams_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.08 Junior_Guerra_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Jordan_Lyles_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.25 Freddy_Peralta_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.76 Zach_Davies_MIL PITCH
-055- -2.58 Matt_Albers_MIL PITCH
Total 10.94

No reliever dragging down this squad and two in the top 100.  Cubs have a Tier 1 relief squad as well with Chavez and Cishek in top 100.  Note: We only count top 7 during September expanded rosters.

OK.  Now that we have a glimpse into this Milwaukee team let’s see what the people think of their game tonight.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_26_7:10_PM MIL SLN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.524 ] < 0.512 > -105 $195
STARTAWAY 2.16(0.553) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME SLN [ 0.524 ] < 0.512 > -105 $195
STARTHOME 1.47(0.560) John_Gant_SLN TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 8 WINPCT 0.565 MIL
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 2 ==> SLN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.526 MIL 4.60 runs
SLN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.474 SLN 4.31 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL    103 110
SLN    92  85

The market is calling this game a toss up tonight.  Tier Combo simulations favor Milwaukee and the differences in wins/loss records (deltaWAA) favors MIL even more.  Neither line a betting opportunity however as expected value for MIL is way below our threshold.

So a coin flip is a good estimate for this game.  Let’s hear what the people think of the Cubs tonight.

DATE 09_26_8:05_PM PIT CHN

LINEAWAY PIT [ 0.389 ] < 0.377 > +165 $265
STARTAWAY 0.67(0.519) Ivan_Nova_PIT TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.643 ] < 0.643 > -180 $155
STARTHOME -0.02(0.499) Jose_Quintana_CHN TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 21 WINPCT 0.619 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
PIT Lineup 4 ==> CHN Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.445 PIT 4.16 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> PIT Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.555 CHN 4.73 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
PIT    118 98
CHN    86  98

The starting pitchers for these two teams are about equal in value.  Cubs have better lineup and a top tier relief squad to back Quintana up.  The market favors the Cubs much higher than TC Sim giving PIT an almost 120 EV in that category which is our tentative threshold.  The deltaWAA EV falls below 100 as the PIT break even probability of 0.377 falls within the house spread.

Cubs are favored to win this and the market really thinks they should.  Cubs just need to focus on winning one game at a time and not worry about other teams losing.  Playoff season starts now.