I’m a bit late with this. This will be the last regular season matchup analysis. Cubs are currently winning 2-0 against the Cardinals. Let’s take a look at SLN.
SLN Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.8 | 22.4 | 455 | 444 | 51 | 51 | -9.1 | -0.4 | SLN | 7/27/2018 |
| 42.3 | 46.4 | 748 | 672 | 87 | 72 | -13.2 | -0.5 | SLN | 9/28/2018 |
Cubs last played the Cardinals 2 months ago and since then they have improved in both hitting and pitching however their fielding (UR), unearned runs above average tanked even more. At 87-72 they gained +15 in 2 months which is pretty good. They could be in the playoffs through the wild card door. Let’s hear what the people think of this final series.
Ouija Board
DATE 09_28_2:20_PM SLN CHN
LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.417 ] < 0.410 > +144 $244
STARTAWAY 0.02(0.503) Adam_Wainwright_SLN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.615 ] < 0.614 > -159 $162
STARTHOME 2.73(0.564) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 2
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 12 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
SLN Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.461 SLN 4.32 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> SLN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.539 CHN 4.73 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
SLN 112 102
CHN 87 94
Cubs are favored by the markets at 0.614 break even probability which is much higher than TC simulations giving the Cardinals an expected value on a $100 bet of $112. Not enough margin to make it a betting opportunity. The difference in win/loss records between these two teams (deltaWAA) gives the Cubs 0.582 break even probability — much closer to the market.
The above shows there’s a bit of exuberance from Cubs fans which is a good sign.
SLN Tier Data
| Type | Tier | Name_Teamid | WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineups | 2 | SLN | 10.92 | |
| SP | 2 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 3.32 | |
| SP | 3 | John_Gant_SLN | 1.72 | |
| SP | 3 | Austin_Gomber_SLN | 0.08 | |
| SP | 1 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 5.29 | |
| SP | 3 | Adam_Wainwright_SLN | 0.02 | |
| RP | 3 | SLN | 7.83 |
The lineup they fielded today is considered Tier 2 above average. Relief pitching is average. League average relief is +7.57/team. Mikolas and Flaherty their top 2 starters. Jack Flaherty started this season on their AA team.
SLN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +102+ | 2.69 | Carlos_Martinez_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.51 | Jordan_Hicks_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.03 | John_Brebbia_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.97 | Daniel_Poncedeleon_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Dakota_Hudson_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Bud_Norris_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.13 | Chasen_Shreve_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.04 | Giovanny_Gallegos_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.00 | Tyson_Ross_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Tyler_Webb_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.25 | Dominic_Leone_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.80 | Mike_Mayers_SLN | PITCH | |
| -107- | -2.10 | Brett_Cecil_SLN | PITCH | |
| -050- | -2.65 | Luke_Weaver_SLN | PITCH | |
| Total | 1.97 |
Pretty average relief pitching with only one guy on the top 200. Only the top 7 are tabulated for all teams with September expanded rosters.
SLN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | Sep_28_2:20_PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | Matt_Carpenter_SLN | 1B-3B-2B | 663 | |
| 1.51 | Jose_Martinez_SLN | 1B-RF | 576 | |
| 2.62 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 476 | |
| 1.62 | Marcell_Ozuna_SLN | LF | 620 | |
| 0.69 | Jedd_Gyorko_SLN | 3B-2B | 394 | |
| 1.76 | Yadier_Molina_SLN | CR | 495 | |
| -1.32 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 404 | |
| 0.23 | Harrison_Bader_SLN | CF-RF | 414 | |
| -0.15 | Adam_Wainwright_SLN | BAT | 11 | |
| Total | WAA=10.92 | PA=4053 | WinPct=0.552 |
The Tier 2/3 border is +10.51 so their lineup is close to Tier 3. The Tier 1/2 border is +15.31. Yadier Molina is having a good year with the bat this season to go along with his HOF level catching ability.
That’s all for today. The next handicap post will be both wild card games. Cubs now up 3-0 top of 5th.