Cubs Cardinals Matchup

I’m a bit late with this.  This will be the last regular season matchup analysis.  Cubs are currently winning 2-0 against the Cardinals.  Let’s take a look at SLN.

SLN Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-1.8 22.4 455 444 51 51 -9.1 -0.4 SLN  7/27/2018
42.3 46.4 748 672 87 72 -13.2 -0.5 SLN  9/28/2018

Cubs last played the Cardinals 2 months ago and since then they have improved in both hitting and pitching however their fielding (UR), unearned runs above average tanked even more.  At 87-72 they gained +15 in 2 months which is pretty good.  They could be in the playoffs through the wild card door.  Let’s hear what the people think of this final series.

Ouija Board

DATE 09_28_2:20_PM SLN CHN

LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.417 ] < 0.410 > +144 $244
STARTAWAY 0.02(0.503) Adam_Wainwright_SLN TIER 3
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.615 ] < 0.614 > -159 $162
STARTHOME 2.73(0.564) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN TIER 2

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 12 WINPCT 0.582 CHN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
SLN Lineup 2 ==> CHN Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.461 SLN 4.32 runs
CHN Lineup 2 ==> SLN Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.539 CHN 4.73 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
SLN    112 102
CHN    87 94

Cubs are favored by the markets at 0.614 break even probability which is much higher than TC simulations giving the Cardinals an expected value on a $100 bet of $112.  Not enough margin to make it a betting opportunity.   The difference in win/loss records between these two teams (deltaWAA) gives the Cubs 0.582 break even probability — much closer to the market.

The above shows there’s a bit of exuberance from Cubs fans which is a good sign.

SLN Tier Data

Type Tier Name_Teamid WAA
Lineups 2 SLN 10.92
SP 2 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 3.32
SP 3 John_Gant_SLN 1.72
SP 3 Austin_Gomber_SLN 0.08
SP 1 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 5.29
SP 3 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 0.02
RP 3 SLN 7.83

The lineup they fielded today is considered Tier 2 above average.  Relief pitching is average.  League average relief is +7.57/team.  Mikolas and Flaherty their top 2 starters.  Jack Flaherty started this season on their AA team.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+102+ 2.69 Carlos_Martinez_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 1.51 Jordan_Hicks_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 1.03 John_Brebbia_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.97 Daniel_Poncedeleon_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Dakota_Hudson_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Bud_Norris_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.13 Chasen_Shreve_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.04 Giovanny_Gallegos_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.00 Tyson_Ross_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.23 Tyler_Webb_TOT PITCH
XXXXX -0.25 Dominic_Leone_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.80 Mike_Mayers_SLN PITCH
-107- -2.10 Brett_Cecil_SLN PITCH
-050- -2.65 Luke_Weaver_SLN PITCH
Total 1.97

Pretty average relief pitching with only one guy on the top 200.  Only the top 7 are tabulated for all teams with September expanded rosters.

SLN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA Sep_28_2:20_PM
3.95 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 1B-3B-2B 663
1.51 Jose_Martinez_SLN 1B-RF 576
2.62 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 476
1.62 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 620
0.69 Jedd_Gyorko_SLN 3B-2B 394
1.76 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 495
-1.32 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 404
0.23 Harrison_Bader_SLN CF-RF 414
-0.15 Adam_Wainwright_SLN BAT 11
Total WAA=10.92 PA=4053 WinPct=0.552

The Tier 2/3 border is +10.51 so their lineup is close to Tier 3.  The Tier 1/2 border is +15.31.  Yadier Molina is having a good year with the bat this season to go along with his HOF level catching ability.

That’s all for today.  The next handicap post will be both wild card games.  Cubs now up 3-0 top of 5th.