ALDS Snapshot 10/6/2018

The roster problem may have been fixed.   Expanded rosters caused havoc with team relief value.  During September only the top 7 relievers were counted but that had a side effect of raising the per team relief value which also isn’t correct when using as comparison with 25 man playoff rosters.

Right now all these tier combo simulations use historical regular season data as reference which also might not be proper.  But it is what it is for now.   Lineups and starters weren’t affected by expanded rosters.  Current relief for playoff teams depends upon a proper set of MLB data.  Expanded rosters are distorted so it was decided the last August roster would be used to determine relief value for each non playoff teams.  Playoff rosters are used for the 10 official playoff teams.

Reliever’s end of year data was used to tabulate non playoff team relief value so we get a more apples to apples distribution.  Since the data seems fixed let’s take a look at the Ouija Board for the two ALDS games going on right now and tonight.

Ouija Board

DATE 10_06_4:35_PM CLE HOU

LINEAWAY CLE [ 0.426 ] < 0.455 > +120 $220
STARTAWAY 3.34(0.578) Carlos_Carrasco_CLE TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME HOU [ 0.592 ] < 0.565 > -130 $176
STARTHOME 5.86(0.632) Gerrit_Cole_HOU TIER 1

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 24 WINPCT 0.631 HOU
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
CLE Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.481 CLE 4.32 runs
HOU Lineup 2 ==> CLE Starter 2 / Relief 5 == 0.519 HOU 4.53 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
CLE 106 81
HOU 91 111

Cleveland has a better lineup which we’ll see below but HOU has a starter advantage — but not much.  Cleveland has a bottom tier, Tier 5, relief staff.  I had to double check that to because Cleveland usually has good relief.  According to TC simulations HOU has a slight edge overall and they get more of an edge with home field advantage, something that’s still a work in progress as we talk through these games.  Both lines well under 120 EV which means they fall within margin of the betting market.

DATE 10_06_8:15_PM NYA BOS

LINEAWAY NYA [ 0.476 ] < 0.524 > -110 $190
STARTAWAY 1.36(0.539) Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA TIER 3
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LINEHOME BOS [ 0.545 ] < 0.524 > -110 $190
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 2

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 BOS
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
NYA Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.510 NYA 4.79 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> NYA Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.490 BOS 4.67 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
NYA    97 73
BOS    93 117

Both TC simulations and the market think this is an even steven game which is why TC Expected Value is less than $100 on a $100 bet for each line.  These two teams have superb lineups which we’ll see below.  Yankees have a better relief squad.  Starters almost equal.

CLE Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
5.73 Francisco_Lindor_CLE SS 745
2.52 Michael_Brantley_CLE LF 631
6.19 Jose_Ramirez_CLE 3B-2B 698
5.42 Edwin_Encarnacion_CLE DH-1B 579
0.29 Josh_Donaldson_CLE 3B-DH 219
1.97 Yonder_Alonso_CLE 1B 574
0.50 Melky_Cabrera_CLE RF 278
0.29 Yan_Gomes_CLE CR 435
0.59 Jason_Kipnis_CLE 2B-CF 601
Total WAA=23.52 PA=4760 WinPct=0.595

HOU Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
3.25 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 620
0.82 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 599
4.89 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 705
2.50 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B-2B 573
0.27 Marwin_Gonzalez_HOU LF-SS-2B-1B 552
1.87 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 468
1.55 Tyler_White_HOU 1B-DH 237
-0.17 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 487
-1.05 Martin_Maldonado_HOU CR 404
Total WAA=13.94 PA=4645 WinPct=0.558

Cleveland has a much better lineup going into today’s game which they lost 3-1.

NYA Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
-0.88 Andrew_McCutchen_NYA RF-LF 682
3.38 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 498
3.13 Luke_Voit_NYA 1B 161
4.60 Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA DH-RF-LF 705
2.10 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 374
4.96 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 569
4.09 Miguel_Andujar_NYA 3B-DH 606
2.35 Gleyber_Torres_NYA 2B-SS 484
0.34 Brett_Gardner_NYA LF-CF 609
Total WAA=24.07 PA=4688 WinPct=0.599

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10062018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
2.35 Mitch_Moreland_BOS 1B 459
-1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH 502
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
-1.30 Sandy_Leon_BOS CR 288
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
Total WAA=27.36 PA=4822 WinPct=0.609

This is one of the best two lineups in a single game all year or for many years.  Boston has home field advantage but the market doesn’t care about that at all tonight.  That game starts in a few minutes.

That is all for now.  Until then ….