There have been some problems with source data and this is starting to become ridiculous. I don’t understand why sites can’t wait until the off season to change around their code. Unfortunately I’m in the beggars can’t be choosers camp and don’t have standing to complain. I think the below table is correct and contains the most current data.
The below is the corrected table from Part 5 of all teams in Divisional Series.
Divisional Series Playoff Horse Race (corrected)
| TeamID | W-L | Total | Hitters | Pitchers | Starters | Relief | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAN | 21 | 51.0 | 28.1 | 22.9 | 14.9 | 8.0 | |
| HOU | 44 | 49.0 | 17.6 | 31.4 | 19.7 | 11.7 | |
| BOS | 54 | 46.4 | 31.6 | 14.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | |
| NYA | 38 | 46.3 | 29.1 | 17.2 | 6.2 | 11.1 | |
| CLE | 20 | 44.8 | 21.0 | 23.8 | 14.7 | 9.1 | |
| MIL | 29 | 33.2 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 5.4 | 12.2 | |
| COL | 19 | 31.6 | 21.2 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 7.3 | |
| ATL | 18 | 31.0 | 14.6 | 16.4 | 12.1 | 4.3 |
Los Angeles is back on top and Atlanta drops to the bottom. Milwaukee Starters value is up a bit. Although Starters contribute to the Total bottom line, only one of them starts a game. The cumulative Relief value is an important indicator which is used in simulation.
Milwaukee knocked out Colorado and since we’re from the future here’s its Ouija Board report:
DATE 10_07_4:30_PM MIL COL
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.429 ] < 0.400 > +150 $250
STARTAWAY 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME COL [ 0.580 ] < 0.615 > -160 $162
STARTHOME 1.70(0.539) German_Marquez_COL TIER 3
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 MIL
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> COL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.504 MIL 4.59 runs
COL Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.496 COL 4.53 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL 126 146
COL 80 68
According to TC simulation this was a betting opportunity for MIL but we don’t know how home field advantage affects these lines yet. Atlanta beat Los Angeles. Here is their Ouija Board report.
DATE 10_07_8:05_PM LAN ATL
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.615 ] < 0.630 > -170 $158
STARTAWAY 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.400 ] < 0.392 > +155 $255
STARTHOME 0.88(0.524) Sean_Newcomb_ATL TIER 3
——————————————–
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 LAN
--------------------------------------------
TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> ATL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.545 LAN 4.79 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.455 ATL 4.32 runs
EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
LAN 86 80
ATL 116 125
LAN was favored by a lot as an away team making this the first favorable EV for a home team in the playoffs so far. Still a lot of verification work needs to be done.
That is all. All the tiering and data required for simulation was broken. Hopefully it’s working. If not I may just pack up and work on off season projects that don’t require a complete set of current data. Until then ….