2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 6

There have been some problems with source data and this is starting to become ridiculous.  I don’t understand why sites can’t wait until the off season to change around their code.   Unfortunately I’m in the beggars can’t be choosers camp and don’t have standing to complain.  I think the below table is correct and contains the most current data.

The below is the corrected table from Part 5 of all teams in Divisional Series.

 Divisional Series Playoff Horse Race (corrected)

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 51.0 28.1 22.9 14.9 8.0
HOU 44 49.0 17.6 31.4 19.7 11.7
BOS 54 46.4 31.6 14.7 9.8 5.0
NYA 38 46.3 29.1 17.2 6.2 11.1
CLE 20 44.8 21.0 23.8 14.7 9.1
MIL 29 33.2 15.6 17.6 5.4 12.2
COL 19 31.6 21.2 10.4 3.1 7.3
ATL 18 31.0 14.6 16.4 12.1 4.3

Los Angeles is back on top and Atlanta drops to the bottom.  Milwaukee Starters value is up a bit.    Although Starters contribute to the Total bottom line, only one of them starts a game.  The cumulative Relief value is an important indicator which is used in simulation.

Milwaukee knocked out Colorado and since we’re from the future here’s its Ouija Board report:

DATE 10_07_4:30_PM MIL COL

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.429 ] < 0.400 > +150 $250
STARTAWAY 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME COL [ 0.580 ] < 0.615 > -160 $162
STARTHOME 1.70(0.539) German_Marquez_COL TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 MIL
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> COL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.504 MIL 4.59 runs
COL Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.496 COL 4.53 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
MIL 126 146
COL 80 68

According to TC simulation this was a betting opportunity for MIL but we don’t know how home field advantage affects these lines yet.  Atlanta beat Los Angeles.  Here is their Ouija Board report.

DATE 10_07_8:05_PM LAN ATL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.615 ] < 0.630 > -170 $158
STARTAWAY 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME ATL [ 0.400 ] < 0.392 > +155 $255
STARTHOME 0.88(0.524) Sean_Newcomb_ATL TIER 3

——————————————–
DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 LAN
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> ATL Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.545 LAN 4.79 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.455 ATL 4.32 runs

EXPECTED VALUE
TeamID TC dWAA
LAN 86 80
ATL 116 125

LAN was favored by a lot as an away team making this the first favorable EV for a home team in the playoffs so far.  Still a lot of verification work needs to be done.

That is all.  All the tiering and data required for simulation was broken.  Hopefully it’s working.  If not I may just pack up and work on off season projects that don’t require a complete set of current data.  Until then ….