2018 Divisional Series Snapshot 10/8/2018

Some of these games are in progress.  HOU is beating CLE 6-2 and LAN is up on ATL 1-0.  Here are the Ouija Board reports for those three games.

DATE 10_08_1:30_PM HOU CLE

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.488 ] < 0.465 > +115 $215
STARTAWAY 1.87(0.541) Dallas_Keuchel_HOU TIER 3
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LINEHOME CLE [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 > -125 $180
STARTHOME 5.17(0.616) Mike_Clevinger_CLE TIER 1

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DELTAWAA 24 WINPCT 0.631 HOU
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TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> CLE Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.438 HOU 4.05 runs
CLE Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.562 CLE 4.67 runs

 EXPECTED VALUE HOU CLE
Tier Combo 94 101
Home Field 99 97

Tier Combo simulations almost match the market exactly so this game is a complete discard.  Instead of calculating EV on difference in win/loss records (deltaWAA), Home Field advantage has been added.  Right now we assume home always equals 0.540 win percentage.  This is a regular season historical average but may not be a playoff home field advantage constant.

DATE 10_08_4:35_PM LAN ATL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.583 ] < 0.588 > -143 $169
STARTAWAY 1.26(0.543) Rich_Hill_LAN TIER 3
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LINEHOME ATL [ 0.435 ] < 0.429 > +133 $233
STARTHOME 5.44(0.634) Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL TIER 1

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DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 LAN
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> ATL Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.494 LAN 4.49 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.506 ATL 4.53 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN ATL
Tier Combo 83 118
Home Field 78 126

Atlanta close to 120 EV for both Tier Combo simulations and Home Field advantage.  Rich Hill is Dodgers’ 4th starter on their playoff roster.

DATE 10_08_7:35_PM BOS NYA

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.400 ] < 0.380 > +163 $263
STARTAWAY 0.84(0.534) Nathan_Eovaldi_TOT TIER 3
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LINEHOME NYA [ 0.630 ] < 0.638 > -176 $156
STARTHOME 3.30(0.578) Luis_Severino_NYA TIER 2

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DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 BOS
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> NYA Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.471 BOS 4.59 runs
NYA Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.529 NYA 4.89 runs

 EXPECTED VALUE BOS NYA
Tier Combo 124 83
Home Field 121 84

Boston has a greater than 120 in both Tier Combo simulation and Home Field advantage.  Actually Boston has a disadvantage being an away team tonight but 0.460 is much  greater than their 0.380 break even probability from the market.

That is all for today. Houston up 10-2 now.