Some of these games are in progress. HOU is beating CLE 6-2 and LAN is up on ATL 1-0. Here are the Ouija Board reports for those three games.
DATE 10_08_1:30_PM HOU CLE
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.488 ] < 0.465 > +115 $215
STARTAWAY 1.87(0.541) Dallas_Keuchel_HOU TIER 3
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LINEHOME CLE [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 > -125 $180
STARTHOME 5.17(0.616) Mike_Clevinger_CLE TIER 1
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DELTAWAA 24 WINPCT 0.631 HOU
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TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> CLE Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.438 HOU 4.05 runs
CLE Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.562 CLE 4.67 runs
| EXPECTED VALUE | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Tier Combo | 94 | 101 |
| Home Field | 99 | 97 |
Tier Combo simulations almost match the market exactly so this game is a complete discard. Instead of calculating EV on difference in win/loss records (deltaWAA), Home Field advantage has been added. Right now we assume home always equals 0.540 win percentage. This is a regular season historical average but may not be a playoff home field advantage constant.
DATE 10_08_4:35_PM LAN ATL
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.583 ] < 0.588 > -143 $169
STARTAWAY 1.26(0.543) Rich_Hill_LAN TIER 3
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LINEHOME ATL [ 0.435 ] < 0.429 > +133 $233
STARTHOME 5.44(0.634) Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL TIER 1
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DELTAWAA 3 WINPCT 0.508 LAN
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> ATL Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.494 LAN 4.49 runs
ATL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.506 ATL 4.53 runs
| EXPECTED VALUE | LAN | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Tier Combo | 83 | 118 |
| Home Field | 78 | 126 |
Atlanta close to 120 EV for both Tier Combo simulations and Home Field advantage. Rich Hill is Dodgers’ 4th starter on their playoff roster.
DATE 10_08_7:35_PM BOS NYA
LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.400 ] < 0.380 > +163 $263
STARTAWAY 0.84(0.534) Nathan_Eovaldi_TOT TIER 3
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LINEHOME NYA [ 0.630 ] < 0.638 > -176 $156
STARTHOME 3.30(0.578) Luis_Severino_NYA TIER 2
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DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 BOS
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> NYA Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.471 BOS 4.59 runs
NYA Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.529 NYA 4.89 runs
| EXPECTED VALUE | BOS | NYA |
|---|---|---|
| Tier Combo | 124 | 83 |
| Home Field | 121 | 84 |
Boston has a greater than 120 in both Tier Combo simulation and Home Field advantage. Actually Boston has a disadvantage being an away team tonight but 0.460 is much greater than their 0.380 break even probability from the market.
That is all for today. Houston up 10-2 now.