2018 NLCS Handicapping Report

When the ALCS team rosters are published there will be a playoff horse race post for the last 4 teams left.  Today the Dodgers play the Brewers in Milwaukee so let’s do a handicapping report.

DATE 10_12_8:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.595 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTAWAY 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME MIL [ 0.422 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTHOME -0.23(0.494) Gio_Gonzalez_TOT TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.550 LAN 4.77 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.450 MIL 4.26 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 91 104
Home Field 76 124

Tier Combo simulations have the Dodgers at 0.550 probability and their line is at 0.600.  The Brewers probability of 0.450 is almost equal to the line break even probability of 0.435.  This makes Tier Combo EV for MIL only slightly above 100.  Both lines a discard.  Knowing nothing other than home field advantage, MIL would be favored at 0.540.   We have much more info however.  Kershaw is a top tier pitcher and Gonzalez is average.  Milwaukee has a top tier relief staff and Dodgers have a top tier lineup.  Here are valuations for the lineups tonight.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10122018
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
3.67 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF-RF 506
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
1.91 Yasmani_Grandal_LAN CR 518
-0.48 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PR 57
Total WAA=17.33 PA=4226 WinPct=0.579

Not as good as the lineups we saw in the Yankees/Boston ALDS but it’s much better than Milwaukee’s lineup below.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10122018
-1.32 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 620
8.44 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 651
2.27 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 447
6.26 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 566
-1.13 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-RF-3B-SS-LF 334
1.55 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 3B-DH 635
-0.99 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 337
-2.21 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 366
-0.88 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL PR 55
Total WAA=11.99 PA=4011 WinPct=0.557

Lots of high value and low value hitters making the sum around +12 WAA.  The Tier 1/2 border  is +15.36 right now so they’re a solid Tier 2.  Milwaukee’s only hope is that playoff Clayton Kershaw decides to pitch tonight instead of regular season Clayton Kershaw.

Tomorrow starts ALCS when we’ll have the remaining two playoff rosters.  Until then ….