2018 Playoff Horse Race Part 7

Here’s a dump of the playoff horse race featuring the last 4 teams in the race.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 52.0 28.1 23.9 14.9 9.0
HOU 44 49.1 17.3 31.8 19.7 12.2
BOS 54 47.7 31.6 16.0 9.8 6.3
MIL 29 33.5 15.0 18.5 5.4 13.1

The above is sorted by Total WAA as calculated by this data model.  Hitters and Pitchers add to make Total, Starters and Relief add to make Pitchers.  Not much different from Part 6.  Milwaukee had a collapse of their top notch relief staff yesterday and still won because Dodgers had a collapse of their top notch starter.  Let’s look at handicap reports for the two games today.

DATE 10_13_4:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.535 ] < 0.556 > -125 $180
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME MIL [ 0.512 ] < 0.465 > +115 $215
STARTHOME 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.521 LAN 4.46 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.479 MIL 4.27 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 94 103
Home Field 83 116

Los Angeles favored slightly by Tier Combo simulations and a little more than slightly by the market.  Ryu is technically Tier 1, Miley Tier 2 and Dodgers have a Tier 1 lineup and Milwaukee brings a Tier 1 relief staff.   Since the market pretty much agrees with simulations there is no point in betting this game.

DATE 10_13_8:05_PM HOU BOS

LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.476 ] < 0.488 > +105 $205
STARTAWAY 8.02(0.669) Justin_Verlander_HOU TIER 1
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LINEHOME BOS [ 0.545 ] < 0.535 > -115 $186
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.495 HOU 4.34 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.505 BOS 4.38 runs

EXPECTED VALUE HOU BOS
Tier Combo 101 94
Home Field 94 100

Two top top of MLB pitchers starting tonight.  HOU has better relief, BOS has better lineup and TC simulations call this an even steven game.  BOS is favored by almost exactly at historical home field advantage which would make sense.  Both lines a discard.

That is all for today.  Handicap dumps will happen throughout the playoffs.  In the off season when the code gets finished we can reminisce handicapping playoffs from past seasons.  Since we’re from the future we know the outcomes.