NLCS Handicapping Report 10/15/2018

DATE 10_15_7:35_PM MIL LAN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.392 ] < 0.385 > +160 $260
STARTAWAY 2.73(0.564) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 2
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.623 ] < 0.636 > -175 $157
STARTHOME 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.494 MIL 4.27 runs
LAN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.506 LAN 4.31 runs

EXPECTED VALUE MIL LAN
Tier Combo 128 79
Home Field 120 85

At 0.636 break even probability,  bettors are paying a big premium to bet the Dodgers tonight.  Tier Combo simulations call this an even steven game.  Milwaukee’s better relief balances out Dodgers’ better starter in Buehler.  Lineups are almost identical in value and they both hover around the Tier 1/2 league border of +15.  Simulations do not use hard tier borders so they consider them equal,  Hard Lineup Tier numbers for these two teams were reversed in the last two games.

Due to this large premium a MIL bet will net $260 on a $100 bet for a $160 profit whereas Dodger bettors can only expect a profit of $57 should they win.  If the simulations are correct, this means an Expected Value on a $100 MIL bet to be $128.  It drops to $120 based upon historical home field advantage.

Based upon Part 7 of Playoff Horse Race, the Dodgers have a deeper bench with respect to hitting.  Simulations do not take bench value into account presently.  Also, the above is based upon posted lineups from Saturday.  They should be close enough today where it might not sway the outcome in Dodgers’ favor that much.

BTW: Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com pegs this game at 61%/39% LAN/MIL break even probability which is within the house spread.  Vegas lines seem to hover around wherever his model sets them.  This will be an off season study as Nate makes available all his data for the year.  We have historical lines data, his data, and Tier Combo data.  Since we’re from the future we will find out  who is most accurate.  Until then ….

Might update this post with current lineups when they come out later.

Update:  Lineups are in for 10/15.  LAN goes to Tier 1 and MIL drops to Tier 2.  They are still close but LAN is better today.  This drops TC sim EV for the MIL line to 123 from 128.

MIL Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10152018
-1.32 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 620
8.44 Christian_Yelich_MIL LF-RF-CF 651
2.27 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF-1B 447
2.73 Travis_Shaw_MIL 3B-2B-1B 587
6.26 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 566
1.55 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 3B-DH 635
-0.90 Erik_Kratz_MIL CR 219
-2.21 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 366
-1.30 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL PR 68
Total WAA=15.52 PA=4159 WinPct=0.572

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10152018
2.42 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-CF 443
4.98 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B-3B-2B 481
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF 632
2.58 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 444
1.91 Yasmani_Grandal_LAN CR 518
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
-0.88 Walker_Buehler_LAN PR 47
Total WAA=19.95 PA=4162 WinPct=0.592