DATE 10_15_7:35_PM MIL LAN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.392 ] < 0.385 > +160 $260
STARTAWAY 2.73(0.564) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 2
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.623 ] < 0.636 > -175 $157
STARTHOME 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.494 MIL 4.27 runs
LAN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.506 LAN 4.31 runs
| EXPECTED VALUE | MIL | LAN |
|---|---|---|
| Tier Combo | 128 | 79 |
| Home Field | 120 | 85 |
At 0.636 break even probability, bettors are paying a big premium to bet the Dodgers tonight. Tier Combo simulations call this an even steven game. Milwaukee’s better relief balances out Dodgers’ better starter in Buehler. Lineups are almost identical in value and they both hover around the Tier 1/2 league border of +15. Simulations do not use hard tier borders so they consider them equal, Hard Lineup Tier numbers for these two teams were reversed in the last two games.
Due to this large premium a MIL bet will net $260 on a $100 bet for a $160 profit whereas Dodger bettors can only expect a profit of $57 should they win. If the simulations are correct, this means an Expected Value on a $100 MIL bet to be $128. It drops to $120 based upon historical home field advantage.
Based upon Part 7 of Playoff Horse Race, the Dodgers have a deeper bench with respect to hitting. Simulations do not take bench value into account presently. Also, the above is based upon posted lineups from Saturday. They should be close enough today where it might not sway the outcome in Dodgers’ favor that much.
BTW: Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com pegs this game at 61%/39% LAN/MIL break even probability which is within the house spread. Vegas lines seem to hover around wherever his model sets them. This will be an off season study as Nate makes available all his data for the year. We have historical lines data, his data, and Tier Combo data. Since we’re from the future we will find out who is most accurate. Until then ….
Might update this post with current lineups when they come out later.
Update: Lineups are in for 10/15. LAN goes to Tier 1 and MIL drops to Tier 2. They are still close but LAN is better today. This drops TC sim EV for the MIL line to 123 from 128.
MIL Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 10152018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.32 | Lorenzo_Cain_MIL | CF | 620 | |
| 8.44 | Christian_Yelich_MIL | LF-RF-CF | 651 | |
| 2.27 | Ryan_Braun_MIL | LF-1B | 447 | |
| 2.73 | Travis_Shaw_MIL | 3B-2B-1B | 587 | |
| 6.26 | Jesus_Aguilar_MIL | 1B | 566 | |
| 1.55 | Mike_Moustakas_MIL | 3B-DH | 635 | |
| -0.90 | Erik_Kratz_MIL | CR | 219 | |
| -2.21 | Orlando_Arcia_MIL | SS | 366 | |
| -1.30 | Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL | PR | 68 | |
| Total | WAA=15.52 | PA=4159 | WinPct=0.572 |
LAN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 10152018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.42 | Joc_Pederson_LAN | LF-CF | 443 | |
| 4.98 | Max_Muncy_LAN | 1B-3B-2B | 481 | |
| 2.06 | Justin_Turner_LAN | 3B | 426 | |
| 3.04 | Manny_Machado_LAN | SS-3B | 709 | |
| 2.10 | Cody_Bellinger_LAN | 1B-CF | 632 | |
| 2.58 | Yasiel_Puig_LAN | RF | 444 | |
| 1.91 | Yasmani_Grandal_LAN | CR | 518 | |
| 1.74 | Enrique_Hernandez_LAN | CF-2B-SS-RF-LF | 462 | |
| -0.88 | Walker_Buehler_LAN | PR | 47 | |
| Total | WAA=19.95 | PA=4162 | WinPct=0.592 |