Playoff Report 10/16/2018

Here are the handicapping dumps from this data model for the MLB playoff games today.

DATE 10_16_5:05_PM BOS HOU

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.455 ] < 0.463 > +116 $216
STARTAWAY 0.84(0.534) Nathan_Eovaldi_TOT TIER 3
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LINEHOME HOU [ 0.565 ] < 0.558 > -126 $179
STARTHOME 1.87(0.541) Dallas_Keuchel_HOU TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.509 BOS 4.67 runs
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.491 HOU 4.59 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS HOU
Tier Combo 110 88
Home Field 99 97

The above game starts in a few hours so we have current lineup data.  Boston brings a much better lineup while HOU brings a much better relief staff.  Both starters are average and of equal status.  Houston has home field advantage which is almost exactly where lines settled for this game.  TC simulation gives Boston a slight edge but more or less even steven.  Since TC sim of 0.509 >> 0.463 , the LINEAWAY, Boston ends up with an Expected Value of $110 on a $100 bet.  Out current threshold is 120 plus home field disadvantage for BOS would veto TC simulations (for now).  Houston line is a clear discard.

DATE 10_16_9:05_PM MIL LAN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.435 ] < 0.417 > +140 $240
STARTAWAY -0.23(0.494) Gio_Gonzalez_TOT TIER 3
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.600 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTHOME 1.26(0.543) Rich_Hill_LAN TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 3 / Relief 2 == 0.492 MIL 4.53 runs
LAN Lineup 2 ==> MIL Starter 3 / Relief 1 == 0.508 LAN 4.59 runs

EXPECTED VALUE MIL LAN
Tier Combo 118 84
Home Field 110 90

Again Tier Combo simulation gives Dodgers a slight edge but LINEHOME gives them a 0.600 break even probability of winning tonight.  Since TC sim probability = 0.492 >> LINEAWAY = 0.417 , Expected Value for MIL based upon simulation is 118, close to the threshold.  Home field disadvantage drops them to 110 so this line is a wave off.  Dodgers line a clear discard.

Also, both lineups above should be Tier 1 tonight.  Since we don’t have current lineups for the above game it reverts to an old lineup which isn’t the ones they posted yesterday.  It’s a script problem.  Eyeballing the data I don’t expect results from simulation will be altered much.