Playoff Report 10/17/2018

Update:  Milwaukee pulled a fast one replacing Wade Miley with Woodruff, a Tier 3 average pitcher,  after one pitch.   This change lowers TC sim EV for the MIL line to 117.   Had this been known ahead of time it’s quite possible the LAN line would demand an even higher premium.  Seems Miley will be pitching game 6 in Milwaukee.

Update 10/18/2018: Since we’re from the future we know Dodgers beat  Brewers in the below game.  Perusing its box score apparently MIL put their weakest relievers in as some sort of strategy to save everyone for a final two game push at home.

That’s all fine and well but sidelining the top half of a Tier 1 relief staff affects analysis.  There is no way to mathematically measure a managerial decision like that and in the realm of counting among thousands of games anomalies become part of background noise.  We’ll see how this strategy pans out the next two games and how it affects the market.  <end of update>

DATE 10_17_5:05_PM MIL LAN

LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.385 ] < 0.385 > +160 $260
STARTAWAY 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.630 ] < 0.636 > -175 $157
STARTHOME 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.480 MIL 4.12 runs
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.520 LAN 4.30 runs

EXPECTED VALUE MIL LAN
Tier Combo 125 82
Home Field 120 85

DATE 10_17_8:35_PM BOS HOU

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.435 ] < 0.426 > +135 $235
STARTAWAY -0.73(0.483) Rick_Porcello_BOS TIER 3
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LINEHOME HOU [ 0.583 ] < 0.592 > -145 $168
STARTHOME 3.91(0.605) Charlie_Morton_HOU TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.469 BOS 4.53 runs
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.531 HOU 4.86 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS HOU
Tier Combo 110 89
Home Field 108 91