Playoff Report 10/18/2018

Here is a playoff report showing what the markets think of this game today.

DATE 10_18_8:05_PM BOS HOU

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.370 ] < 0.370 > +170 $270
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 2
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LINEHOME HOU [ 0.667 ] < 0.655 > -190 $152
STARTHOME 8.02(0.669) Justin_Verlander_HOU TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> HOU Starter 1 / Relief 1 == 0.478 BOS 4.38 runs
HOU Lineup 2 ==> BOS Starter 2 / Relief 3 == 0.522 HOU 4.61 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS HOU
Tier Combo 129 79
Home Field 124 82

Boston is a heavy underdog today going against a top top Tier 1 pitcher in Justin Verlander.  They are favored almost 2-1 which is very large.  TC simulations however have HOU favored by a much narrower margin.  Boston having a 0.476 break even probability >> than LINEAWAY at 0.370.  This gives Boston a $129 Expected Value on a $100 bet assuming TC simulation is the correct probability.

This data model does not take into account anomalies.  David Price is the 5th worst pitcher in post season history and that doesn’t include 2017 post season.  His regular season was pretty decent.  If you downgrade Price to a bottom of the barrel Tier 5 pitcher, TC sim EV drops to 115.

Boston has the best lineup in MLB going against one of the best pitchers tonight.  Here are  sample lineups from 10/16.

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10162018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
2.12 Steve_Pearce_BOS 1B-DH-LF 251
-1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH 502
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
-2.10 Christian_Vazquez_BOS CR 269
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
Total WAA=26.33 PA=4595 WinPct=0.610

That’s a rock ’em sock ’em lineup who HOU pitching had to deal with.

HOU Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10162018
3.25 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 620
0.82 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 599
4.89 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 705
2.50 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B-2B 573
0.27 Marwin_Gonzalez_HOU LF-SS-2B-1B 552
-0.17 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 487
1.87 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 468
-0.46 Brian_McCann_HOU CR 216
-0.06 Tony_Kemp_HOU LF-CF 295
Total WAA=12.91 PA=4515 WinPct=0.555

Very similar to a Cubs lineup.  Houston’s strength lies in its pitching as shown in the playoff horse race series.  We’ll see.