Playoff Report 10/19/2018

Boston back in the World Series since 2013 when we started doing this.  More on the World Series when we get there.  Still two teams battling it out for the other spot.  Let’s hear what the people say about this game tonight in this playoff report.

DATE 10_19_8:35_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.545 ] < 0.524 > -110 $190
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
--------------------------------------------
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.476 ] < 0.500 > +100 $200
STARTHOME 2.92(0.663) Wade_Miley_MIL TIER 2
--------------------------------------------

TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.507 LAN 4.31 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.493 MIL 4.27 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 96 99
Home Field 87 108

The people don’t know how to call this game.  Lines settled on more or less even steven with LAN bettors paying the juice.  TC simulation also give LAN a very slight edge so Expected Value for both lines less than 100.  Since LINEHOME of 0.500 is less than historical home field advantage, EV for that is above 100 for Milwaukee.   Both lines clear discards.

If Milwaukee wins we’ll do this again tomorrow and if not, then we’ll wait for World Series rosters and see how the final two teams compare with each other.  Until then ….