Playoff Report 10/20/2018

This will be the final playoff report for LCS.  Apparently Milwaukee’s gambit in LA paid off and now the NLCS is down to a final game — much like how the Cubs did it in 2016.  Here’s what the people say about today.

DATE 10_20_8:05_PM LAN MIL

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.535 ] < 0.531 > -113 $188
STARTAWAY 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME MIL [ 0.488 ] < 0.493 > +103 $203
STARTHOME 2.73(0.564) Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL TIER 2
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> MIL Starter 2 / Relief 1 == 0.535 LAN 4.46 runs
MIL Lineup 2 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.465 MIL 4.12 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN MIL
Tier Combo 101 94
Home Field 86 110

Vegas lines and Tier Combo simulation are almost exactly in sync making this game a complete discard.  EV for Home Field advantage is at 110 for MIL but bets are not to be made based upon historical home field advantage because we have a lot more information about this game.  Game starts tonight so we’ll see.

World Series reports will come next.  Until then ….