Today will be part one of a World Series Report series. These will be similar to the preceding playoff report series which mean mostly database dumps with some commentary about the results if they’re interesting. Today we’ll start with a complete playoff horse race sorted by team total WAA, the value stat generated by this data model.
Playoff Horse Race Part 8
… and then there were two. Totals not much different from Part 7 of the playoff horse race series. LAN has a better set of starters and better relief. Boston fields a much better starting lineup as we’ll see below even though both teams have similar hitting. Dodger hitting is spread out so they’ll have better late game pinch hitting which could be a factor in close games between two high caliber teams. Let’s hear what the people think about tonight.
DATE 10_23_8:05_PM LAN BOS
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.426 ] < 0.417 > +140 $240
STARTAWAY 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.592 ] < 0.600 > -150 $166
STARTHOME 7.41(0.711) Chris_Sale_BOS TIER 1
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 1 / Relief 3 == 0.492 LAN 4.38 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.508 BOS 4.45 runs
Two top tier MLB starters pitching tonight who must each face top tier lineups. LAN has a slight edge with relief. Boston fields a much better lineup even though both considered Tier 1 which gives them a slight edge in simulation. Simulations use deltas between tiers not hard boundaries. More about that in the off season.
The market however favors Boston significantly higher which causes Dodgers Expected Value for TC simulation to be 118, almost betting opportunity. Home field disadvantage for LAN drops this to 110. Right now claw back into historical lines data has not been done. The above shows Boston is over valued based upon current data. Kershaw can be flaky in the playoffs which are anomalies that can’t be quantified so we’ll see.
Let’s look at a lineup snapshot for each team taken a couple days ago which shouldn’t be much different than the official ones posted later. We’ll also show Tier data and relief rosters according to our source. For some reason (probably because our source is not that reliable) Boston is missing a player but that shouldn’t affect the below summary much.
Update 10/24: That missing Boston player has been found and it’s starter Nathan Eovaldi who has a WAA=0.86 for the year which is solid Tier 3. That 0.86 is not included in the playoff horse race table above.
This is considered Tier 1 but just barely. The Tier 1/2 boundary is +15.36 which is based upon a distribution of lineups from all 30 teams.
This far exceeds the Tier 1/2 boundary and since simulations use deltas to determine differences, Boston’s lineup against Clayton Kershaw and LAN relief is greater than Dodgers barely Tier 1 lineup against a higher rated pitcher in Chris Sale. This is why TC simulation sees the game more even steven than the blowout predicted by the market.
LAN Tier Data
Dodgers are showing their four starters while Boston below only shows 3. The missing Boston player might be their fourth starter because it’s hard to make it through a seven game series with only 3 starters.
BOS Tier Data
Lineups in tier data took a different snapshot than the listed lineup shown above. All lineups vary a little from day to day. Boston relief also took a big hit making them close to the Tier 3/4 border which is at WAA=0 for all 30 teams.
Note: Relief distributions are taken for the other 28 teams from end of August rosters using end of year data for each player.
The Tier 2/3 border for relief is +6.26 so LAN is has a relief staff almost a complete tier above Boston. This will be true for the entire series.
I double checked this and Drew Pomeranz appears to be on the playoff roster. Not sure why. There maybe matchup considerations with Dodger hitting that we don’t know about. There must be a good reason — including our source for rosters made a mistake. We’ll see.
That is all for showing playoff roster information. Except for lineups the above won’t change much. The rest of the world series reports will only show the handicapping with commentary if necessary.