2018 World Series Report Part 2

Another day, another World Series Report.

DATE 10_24_8:05_PM LAN BOS

LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.444 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME BOS [ 0.574 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.503 LAN 4.65 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.497 BOS 4.61 runs

EXPECTED VALUE LAN BOS
Tier Combo 116 85
Home Field 106 92

Yesterday LAN was around 118 Expected Value on a 100 bet and today it’s almost the same.   As we saw in the playoff horse race series, playoff teams have the best collective talent and usually, including this season, the top top tier talent end up in the World Series.

TC Simulations are based upon regular season results where  elite teams face the dregs of MLB.  Top teams facing top teams usually end up being a 50/50 event historically.   Today LAN eeks out BOS at 0.503 but for all intents and purposes that’s a flip of a coin.  This is where home field advantage comes into play.  Boston is slightly over valued based upon that.  Since it’s a cold day that should favor Boston as well.

If lineups become available they’ll post below in an update.

Update mid game2:  Lineups are finally available.  Our lineup source was down for awhile so  estimated lineups based upon snapshots were used.  BOS fielding a slightly better lineup than the snapshot.

LAN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10242018
1.03 Brian_Dozier_LAN 2B 632
2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 426
1.78 David_Freese_LAN 3B-1B 312
3.04 Manny_Machado_LAN SS-3B 709
1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B 604
3.67 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF-RF 506
1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF 462
2.58 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF 444
-0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN CR-2B 238
Total WAA=16.70 PA=4333 WinPct=0.574

BOS Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10242018
7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF 614
4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF 661
2.12 Steve_Pearce_BOS 1B-DH-LF 251
10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF 649
4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS 580
1.64 Rafael_Devers_BOS 3B 490
-0.86 Ian_Kinsler_BOS 2B 534
1.62 Jackie_Bradley_BOS CF-RF 535
-2.10 Christian_Vazquez_BOS CR 269
Total WAA=29.25 PA=4583 WinPct=0.623

That might be the highest valued set of 9 players for any team this season.