Another day, another World Series Report.
DATE 10_24_8:05_PM LAN BOS
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.444 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 4.03(0.720) Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN TIER 1
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LINEHOME BOS [ 0.574 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 3
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TIER COMBOS
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.503 LAN 4.65 runs
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.497 BOS 4.61 runs
| EXPECTED VALUE | LAN | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Tier Combo | 116 | 85 |
| Home Field | 106 | 92 |
Yesterday LAN was around 118 Expected Value on a 100 bet and today it’s almost the same. As we saw in the playoff horse race series, playoff teams have the best collective talent and usually, including this season, the top top tier talent end up in the World Series.
TC Simulations are based upon regular season results where elite teams face the dregs of MLB. Top teams facing top teams usually end up being a 50/50 event historically. Today LAN eeks out BOS at 0.503 but for all intents and purposes that’s a flip of a coin. This is where home field advantage comes into play. Boston is slightly over valued based upon that. Since it’s a cold day that should favor Boston as well.
If lineups become available they’ll post below in an update.
Update mid game2: Lineups are finally available. Our lineup source was down for awhile so estimated lineups based upon snapshots were used. BOS fielding a slightly better lineup than the snapshot.
LAN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 10242018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Brian_Dozier_LAN | 2B | 632 | |
| 2.06 | Justin_Turner_LAN | 3B | 426 | |
| 1.78 | David_Freese_LAN | 3B-1B | 312 | |
| 3.04 | Manny_Machado_LAN | SS-3B | 709 | |
| 1.49 | Chris_Taylor_LAN | SS-CF-LF-2B | 604 | |
| 3.67 | Matt_Kemp_LAN | LF-RF | 506 | |
| 1.74 | Enrique_Hernandez_LAN | CF-2B-SS-RF-LF | 462 | |
| 2.58 | Yasiel_Puig_LAN | RF | 444 | |
| -0.71 | Austin_Barnes_LAN | CR-2B | 238 | |
| Total | WAA=16.70 | PA=4333 | WinPct=0.574 |
BOS Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 10242018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.54 | Mookie_Betts_BOS | RF-CF | 614 | |
| 4.45 | Andrew_Benintendi_BOS | LF-CF | 661 | |
| 2.12 | Steve_Pearce_BOS | 1B-DH-LF | 251 | |
| 10.08 | J.D._Martinez_BOS | DH-LF-RF | 649 | |
| 4.77 | Xander_Bogaerts_BOS | SS | 580 | |
| 1.64 | Rafael_Devers_BOS | 3B | 490 | |
| -0.86 | Ian_Kinsler_BOS | 2B | 534 | |
| 1.62 | Jackie_Bradley_BOS | CF-RF | 535 | |
| -2.10 | Christian_Vazquez_BOS | CR | 269 | |
| Total | WAA=29.25 | PA=4583 | WinPct=0.623 |
That might be the highest valued set of 9 players for any team this season.