2018 World Series Report Part 3

Game 3 starts tonight in LA so it’s time for another World Series Report.

DATE 10_26_8:05_PM BOS LAN

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.408 ] < 0.408 > +145 $245
STARTAWAY -0.73(0.483) Rick_Porcello_BOS TIER 3
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.608 ] < 0.608 > -155 $164
STARTHOME 4.64(0.652) Walker_Buehler_LAN TIER 1

BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.474 BOS 4.61 runs
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.526 LAN 4.89 runs

Tier Combo 116 86
Home Field 113 89

Last season these simulations were a concept and a pattern kind of emerged during those playoffs.  In the off season we’ll be able to do these daily reports for past playoffs using past data to see if similar patterns exist.

Simulations build upon summation of talent in various categories and since tiering uses a distribution from all 30 MLB teams, top teams are going to have top tier talent making it hard to discern a difference mathematically.

Tier Combo simulation above favors the Dodgers with the biggest edge of the series so far at 0.526.  This is largely due to differences in starters, Tier 1 vs. Tier 3, and difference in relief, Tier 2 vs. Tier 3.

Lines for today  favor the home team at 0.608 giving Boston a rather high Expected Value of 116 on a 100 bet.  Home field disadvantage drops them to 113 which isn’t much.  Because of razor thin difference in talent, either home field advantage or home field fan irrational exuberance is pushing EV up for visiting teams during these playoffs.  We observed LAN home field irrational exuberance when they played the Cubs.  Since World Series are national, LAN bettors should have less of an impact on their line.

Simulations do not use hard boundaries and from  lineup tables in World Series Report Part 2, Boston has around twice the lineup value as Dodgers ( 29 – 16 ), yet the sum of hitting talent is almost the same.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief
LAN 21 50.7 28.1 22.6 14.9 7.6
BOS 54 42.2 31.6 10.6 8.9 1.7

Let’s see how those two numbers are calculated.  Below are batting rosters for each team.

Hitting Rosters


Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+002+ 10.08 J.D._Martinez_BOS DH-LF-RF
+010+ 7.54 Mookie_Betts_BOS RF-CF
+035+ 4.77 Xander_Bogaerts_BOS SS
+039+ 4.45 Andrew_Benintendi_BOS LF-CF
+131+ 2.35 Mitch_Moreland_BOS 1B
+152+ 2.08 Steve_Pearce_TOT 1B-DH-LF
XXXXX 1.64 Rafael_Devers_BOS 3B
XXXXX 1.62 Jackie_Bradley_Jr._BOS CF-RF
XXXXX 0.53 Brock_Holt_BOS 2B-SS-RF
XXXXX -0.02 Blake_Swihart_BOS CR-DH-RF-1B
XXXXX -0.82 Ian_Kinsler_TOT 2B
XXXXX -1.28 Eduardo_Nunez_BOS 2B-3B-DH
XXXXX -1.30 Sandy_Leon_BOS CR
Total 31.64

J.D. Marinez should be AL MVP with Mookie Betts second.  There are 4 batters above in top 100 and 6 in the top 200.  Let’s look at the Dodgers.

Los Angeles

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+028+ 4.98 Max_Muncy_LAN 1B-3B-2B
+057+ 3.67 Matt_Kemp_LAN LF-RF
+083+ 3.07 Manny_Machado_TOT SS-3B
+109+ 2.58 Yasiel_Puig_LAN RF
+127+ 2.42 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-CF
+149+ 2.10 Cody_Bellinger_LAN 1B-CF
+155+ 2.06 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B
+174+ 1.91 Yasmani_Grandal_LAN CR
+179+ 1.87 David_Freese_TOT 3B-1B
+196+ 1.74 Enrique_Hernandez_LAN CF-2B-SS-RF-LF
XXXXX 1.49 Chris_Taylor_LAN SS-CF-LF-2B
XXXXX 0.92 Brian_Dozier_TOT 2B
XXXXX -0.71 Austin_Barnes_LAN CR-2B
Total 28.1

Only two guys in the top 100 and 9 batters in top 200.  Boston has top of the league hitters, Dodgers have a lot of upper middle of league hitters.  Boston can put more value in a single lineup because talent is so concentrated and so high.

Simulations rely on differences with a cap.  This will be explained more in off season.  Right now Boston fields a Tier 0 lineup which is usually a tier or two above most high value pitchers they face.   This depresses LAN break even probability from TC simulation and increases BOS.

Today, even with such a massive lineup Boston brings, both TC simulation and lines favor Dodgers.  Dodger bettors are paying a large premium to bet the LAN line.  Right now Dodger bettors think their team has a greater than 0.608 probability of winning.    Nate Silver has LAN at 0.560 probability.

That is all for now.  A shorter Game 4 report will come tomorrow.  Until then ….