2018 World Series Report Part 5

With Boston up 3-1 this could be the last World Series report until 2019.

DATE 10_28_8:15_PM BOS LAN

LINEAWAY BOS [ 0.465 ] < 0.435 > +130 $230
STARTAWAY 2.21(0.556) David_Price_BOS TIER 3
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LINEHOME LAN [ 0.556 ] < 0.583 > -140 $171
STARTHOME 5.02(0.640) Clayton_Kershaw_LAN TIER 1
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TIER COMBOS
BOS Lineup 1 ==> LAN Starter 1 / Relief 2 == 0.481 BOS 4.45 runs
LAN Lineup 1 ==> BOS Starter 3 / Relief 3 == 0.519 LAN 4.65 runs

EXPECTED VALUE BOS LAN
Tier Combo 111 89
Home Field 106 92

Kershaw last pitched against Chris Sale in Boston for Game 1 so this match up is different.  Lines about the same as yesterday but TC Simulation has Dodgers favored at 0.519 break even probability.  This lowers Expected Value for Boston to 111 on a 100 risk which is close to their basic Home Field disadvantage Expected Value.

This could be the last game of the season.  If not, part 6 will be forthcoming.

Update:  It looks like Nate Silver’s model agrees.  Here’s a snapshot in case that link gets broken.

natesilver

Update2: I’m an idiot again! It might be dyslexia but read the above table opposite of what it says. Nate had BOS at 52%.  TC Simulation had Dodgers at 52%.  Nate’s model would have generated an Expected Value for Boston at 120 on a 100 bet making it a betting opportunity.  Since we’re from the future it would have been a successful betting opportunity.  Home Field Expected Value would still be 106 however and how that factors into all of this is still a work in progress.

More historical analysis between vegas lines, TC simulation, and The above coming soon in the off season ( like now ).  This will start with 2011 – 2017.  Current year event files are needed for this analysis and retrosheet.org usually releases them mid December some time.   </ end of update>