Free Agent Class of 2019

The official MLB site, released a list of the free agent class of 2019.  Let’s run that list through this data model.

There are many ways to sort this list and calculate career numbers.  During the season this model ranks players according to total WAA value for that season.  Number of years can differ among free agents.  It was decided to simply use WAA valuations for the last 3 seasons.   This is a pretty good indicator showing what have you done for me lately.

The below table shows the top 25 free agents sorted by total WAA for their last three year splits.  The first column shows rank for the 2018 season which just concluded.

Top 2019 Free Agents

2018 Rank 3 Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 14.68 Bryce_Harper_WAS RF-CF
+076+ 14.24 Nelson_Cruz_SEA DH
XXXXX 11.51 Daniel_Murphy_TOT 2B-1B
XXXXX 9.39 Brian_Dozier_TOT 2B
XXXXX 9.37 Josh_Donaldson_TOT 3B-DH
+158+ 9.03 J.A._Happ_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 8.97 Andrew_Miller_CLE PITCH
+083+ 8.27 Manny_Machado_TOT SS-3B
XXXXX 8.02 Zach_Britton_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 7.67 Adrian_Beltre_TEX 3B-DH
+163+ 7.48 Craig_Kimbrel_BOS PITCH
+148+ 6.91 Carlos_Gonzalez_COL RF
XXXXX 6.87 Mark_Reynolds_WAS 1B-3B
XXXXX 6.72 Brad_Brach_TOT PITCH
+135+ 6.72 Matt_Adams_TOT 1B-LF
-093- 6.57 Ervin_Santana_MIN PITCH
XXXXX 6.49 David_Robertson_NYA PITCH
+051+ 6.38 Charlie_Morton_HOU PITCH
+119+ 6.24 Evan_Gattis_HOU DH
+181+ 5.02 Dallas_Keuchel_HOU PITCH
+049+ 4.93 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN PITCH
+199+ 4.60 Jeurys_Familia_TOT PITCH
+154+ 4.47 DJ_LeMahieu_COL 2B
XXXXX 4.45 Gio_Gonzalez_TOT PITCH
+194+ 4.39 Kelvin_Herrera_TOT PITCH

There is a lot more that goes into the calculus of deciding upon a free agent than simple run production.  Daniel Murphy who the Cubs acquired is ranked 3rd above but had a mediocre season according to his 2018 rank.  Does he have anything left in the tank going forward?   Ditto for Josh Donaldson,  Brian Dozier, and Andrew Miller.  This data model cannot predict the future.  The above simply shows a factual representation of how many wins each player contributed to their teams the last three seasons.

And as always, past results don’t affect future results.  They only show capability.  That is all for now.   A Giancarlo Stanton article is forthcoming.   Also working on historical daily simulations to compare them with historical vegas lines and historical Nate Silver predictions.  Until then ….