The official MLB site, mlb.com released a list of the free agent class of 2019. Let’s run that list through this data model.
There are many ways to sort this list and calculate career numbers. During the season this model ranks players according to total WAA value for that season. Number of years can differ among free agents. It was decided to simply use WAA valuations for the last 3 seasons. This is a pretty good indicator showing what have you done for me lately.
The below table shows the top 25 free agents sorted by total WAA for their last three year splits. The first column shows rank for the 2018 season which just concluded.
Top 2019 Free Agents
| 2018 Rank | 3 Year WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +027+ | 14.68 | Bryce_Harper_WAS | RF-CF | |
| +076+ | 14.24 | Nelson_Cruz_SEA | DH | |
| XXXXX | 11.51 | Daniel_Murphy_TOT | 2B-1B | |
| XXXXX | 9.39 | Brian_Dozier_TOT | 2B | |
| XXXXX | 9.37 | Josh_Donaldson_TOT | 3B-DH | |
| +158+ | 9.03 | J.A._Happ_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 8.97 | Andrew_Miller_CLE | PITCH | |
| +083+ | 8.27 | Manny_Machado_TOT | SS-3B | |
| XXXXX | 8.02 | Zach_Britton_TOT | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 7.67 | Adrian_Beltre_TEX | 3B-DH | |
| +163+ | 7.48 | Craig_Kimbrel_BOS | PITCH | |
| +148+ | 6.91 | Carlos_Gonzalez_COL | RF | |
| XXXXX | 6.87 | Mark_Reynolds_WAS | 1B-3B | |
| XXXXX | 6.72 | Brad_Brach_TOT | PITCH | |
| +135+ | 6.72 | Matt_Adams_TOT | 1B-LF | |
| -093- | 6.57 | Ervin_Santana_MIN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 6.49 | David_Robertson_NYA | PITCH | |
| +051+ | 6.38 | Charlie_Morton_HOU | PITCH | |
| +119+ | 6.24 | Evan_Gattis_HOU | DH | |
| +181+ | 5.02 | Dallas_Keuchel_HOU | PITCH | |
| +049+ | 4.93 | Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN | PITCH | |
| +199+ | 4.60 | Jeurys_Familia_TOT | PITCH | |
| +154+ | 4.47 | DJ_LeMahieu_COL | 2B | |
| XXXXX | 4.45 | Gio_Gonzalez_TOT | PITCH | |
| +194+ | 4.39 | Kelvin_Herrera_TOT | PITCH |
There is a lot more that goes into the calculus of deciding upon a free agent than simple run production. Daniel Murphy who the Cubs acquired is ranked 3rd above but had a mediocre season according to his 2018 rank. Does he have anything left in the tank going forward? Ditto for Josh Donaldson, Brian Dozier, and Andrew Miller. This data model cannot predict the future. The above simply shows a factual representation of how many wins each player contributed to their teams the last three seasons.
And as always, past results don’t affect future results. They only show capability. That is all for now. A Giancarlo Stanton article is forthcoming. Also working on historical daily simulations to compare them with historical vegas lines and historical Nate Silver predictions. Until then ….