Minor Leagues Reboot Part 2

In Part 1 we rehashed an old list from 2013 about all the home grown players on the Cardinals from that year.  Today we’ll cover the home grown players on the 2018 Cubs.   Below is a list of all home grown players with > 1 WAA for 2018 — same criteria used in Part 1.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+012+ 7.29 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B
+091+ 2.94 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+092+ 2.94 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+189+ 1.78 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 1.05 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 1.01 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B

Ranks are only given to the top and bottom 200.  The XXXXX rank designation means unranked.   Tables below are revised from Part 1 to show year in first column and age is added for minor league records only.

Javier Baez

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +012+ 7.29 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B XXX mlb
2017 +090+ 3.25 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.88 Javier_Baez_CHN 3B-2B-SS XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.99 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-3B XXX mlb
2015 +021+ 4.12 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.753 aaa 22
2014 XXXXX -0.34 Javier_Baez_CHN SS-2B XXX mlb
2014 +020+ 4.01 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.677 aaa 21
2013 +010+ 4.26 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.841 aa 20
2013 +064+ 3.17 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.681 aplus 20
2012 XXXXX 0.04 Javier_Baez_CHN BAT 0.509 aplus 19

The WinPct column shows Javier Baez had an incredible minor league run.  A rate greater than 0.600 is very good, greater than 0.700 extremely good, and greater than 0.800 top shelf good. Baez struggled his first two years in MLB and then found his groove.

Baez had teammates Kyle Hendricks and Justin Bour on the 2013  AA  Tennessee Smokies.  Baez was only 20 at the time which is very young for AA level.  He had a career year in 2017 and exceeded that year by being the leading MVP candidate, according to this data model, all the way to the last week of 2018.

Anthony Rizzo

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +091+ 2.94 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2017 +033+ 4.85 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B-2B XXX mlb
2016 +021+ 5.44 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2015 +033+ 4.54 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2014 +050+ 3.93 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX 0.17 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2012 XXXXX 0.80 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B XXX mlb
2012 +023+ 4.16 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN BAT 0.781 aaa 22
2011 -161- -1.68 Anthony_Rizzo_SDN 1B XXX mlb
2011 +006+ 6.83 Anthony_Rizzo_SDN BAT 0.818 aaa  21
2010 +021+ 4.37 Anthony_Rizzo_BOS BAT 0.680 aa 20
2010 XXXXX 1.47 Anthony_Rizzo_BOS BAT 0.709 aplus 20
2009 XXXXX -0.50 Anthony_Rizzo_BOS BAT 0.458 aplus 19

Anthony Rizzo came up via Boston and due to  Theo Epstein also coming from Boston, transitive law applies so Rizzo is considered home grown.  He currently has consistent not too flashy numbers just like what Ron Santo put up year after year for the Cubs during his  HOF career.  At age 21 Rizzo tore up AAA for the Padres affiliate.  Cubs were lucky he didn’t play well for San Diego in MLB causing them to trade him.

Kyle Hendricks

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +092+ 2.94 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2017 +047+ 4.26 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2016 +002+ 8.88 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX -0.15 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +131+ 2.33 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2014 +161+ 1.81 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.579 aaa 24
2013 XXXXX 1.57 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.677 aaa 23
2013 +001+ 5.80 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.707 aa 23
2012 XXXXX 0.08 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH 0.521 aplus 22
2012 +038+ 3.86 Kyle_Hendricks_TEX PITCH 0.633 aplus 22
2011 XXXXX 0.06 Kyle_Hendricks_TEX PITCH NA aa

Another Cub who dominated each level of minor leagues.  He should have been Cy Young winner in 2016 but helped win a World Series trophy instead.  Hendricks is currently part of  the top 25 MLB players for the three year  2016, 2017, 2018 career splits according to this data model.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 +189+ 1.78 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2017 +163+ 2.08 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.32 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX -0.08 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.486 aaa 24
2015 XXXXX 0.00 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 0.88 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.625 aaa 23
2015 XXXXX 0.67 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.627 aa 23
2014 +169+ 1.64 Carl_Edwards_Jr._CHN PITCH 0.654 aa 22

Carl Edwards was a high level starting prospect but now puts up consistent numbers as a reliever.

Kyle Schwarber

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 XXXXX 1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF XXX mlb
2017 XXXXX 0.76 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.832 aaa 24
2016 XXXXX -0.13 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT XXX mlb
2015 +049+ 3.76 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF-CR XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 0.19 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.554 aaa 22
2015 +059+ 2.73 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.716 aa 22
2014 XXXXX 1.36 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN BAT 0.637 aplus 21

In 2017 Kyle Schwarber was sent down to Iowa because he was suffering a slump and tore up AAA with a greater than 0.800 WinPct.  In 2015 Cubs brought him up sporadically and even playing less than 1/2 season ranked in top 50 of MLB players.  His WinPct, the rate of WAA increase over time is phenomenal that year.  This model does not publish rates for MLB time because the weighting factor (WAA) is all that matters in the top league.  Schwarber had decent but unranked 2017 and 2018.  The 2016 record is an extremely small sample size that does not include his contributions to winning a World Series trophy for the Cubs and making Pete Rose eat a giant plate of crow.

Schwarber has proven upside potential where he could put up MVP numbers next season if he finds his groove.  Nobody can predict the future.

Kris Bryant

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 XXXXX 1.05 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF XXX mlb
2017 +102+ 2.96 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B XXX mlb
2016 +007+ 7.01 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF-RF XXX mlb
2015 +027+ 4.75 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B XXX mlb
2015 XXXXX 1.01 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT NA aaa 23
2014 +030+ 3.84 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT 0.748 aaa 22
2014 +003+ 5.63 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT 0.864 aa 22
2013 XXXXX 0.76 Kris_Bryant_CHN BAT 0.735 aplus 21

Kris is another home grown Cubs player who tore up all three minor leagues below MLB based on his extremely high WinPct rates in those leagues.  He was MVP ranked #7 out of all players by this data model in 2016.  He dropped off in 2017 and 2018 but still above average.

David Bote

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct LEAGUE Age
2018 XXXXX 1.01 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B XXX mlb
2018 XXXXX 1.13 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.582 aaa 25
2017 XXXXX 0.38 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.514 aa 24
2016 XXXXX 0.17 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aaa 23
2016 XXXXX -0.40 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aa 23
2016 +075+ 2.77 David_Bote_CHN BAT 0.670 aplus 23
2014 XXXXX 0.32 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aaa 21
2013 XXXXX 0.17 David_Bote_CHN BAT NA aplus 20

The age column provides some perspective on prospects and David Bote advanced to MLB at age 25, two years older than other prospects.  He had a good run in A+ in 2016 and the Cubs tried to promote him to AA and then AAA.  He went back to AA in 2017 with average success and then hit well in AAA during the start of 2018.

That is all for now.  Part 3 will cover the 2019 White Sox prospects when we get an idea as to what their roster will look like.  Season simulations up next.  Until then ….