In Part 1 we rehashed an old list from 2013 about all the home grown players on the Cardinals from that year. Today we’ll cover the home grown players on the 2018 Cubs. Below is a list of all home grown players with > 1 WAA for 2018 — same criteria used in Part 1.
Ranks are only given to the top and bottom 200. The XXXXX rank designation means unranked. Tables below are revised from Part 1 to show year in first column and age is added for minor league records only.
The WinPct column shows Javier Baez had an incredible minor league run. A rate greater than 0.600 is very good, greater than 0.700 extremely good, and greater than 0.800 top shelf good. Baez struggled his first two years in MLB and then found his groove.
Baez had teammates Kyle Hendricks and Justin Bour on the 2013 AA Tennessee Smokies. Baez was only 20 at the time which is very young for AA level. He had a career year in 2017 and exceeded that year by being the leading MVP candidate, according to this data model, all the way to the last week of 2018.
Anthony Rizzo came up via Boston and due to Theo Epstein also coming from Boston, transitive law applies so Rizzo is considered home grown. He currently has consistent not too flashy numbers just like what Ron Santo put up year after year for the Cubs during his HOF career. At age 21 Rizzo tore up AAA for the Padres affiliate. Cubs were lucky he didn’t play well for San Diego in MLB causing them to trade him.
Another Cub who dominated each level of minor leagues. He should have been Cy Young winner in 2016 but helped win a World Series trophy instead. Hendricks is currently part of the top 25 MLB players for the three year 2016, 2017, 2018 career splits according to this data model.
Carl Edwards Jr.
Carl Edwards was a high level starting prospect but now puts up consistent numbers as a reliever.
In 2017 Kyle Schwarber was sent down to Iowa because he was suffering a slump and tore up AAA with a greater than 0.800 WinPct. In 2015 Cubs brought him up sporadically and even playing less than 1/2 season ranked in top 50 of MLB players. His WinPct, the rate of WAA increase over time is phenomenal that year. This model does not publish rates for MLB time because the weighting factor (WAA) is all that matters in the top league. Schwarber had decent but unranked 2017 and 2018. The 2016 record is an extremely small sample size that does not include his contributions to winning a World Series trophy for the Cubs and making Pete Rose eat a giant plate of crow.
Schwarber has proven upside potential where he could put up MVP numbers next season if he finds his groove. Nobody can predict the future.
Kris is another home grown Cubs player who tore up all three minor leagues below MLB based on his extremely high WinPct rates in those leagues. He was MVP ranked #7 out of all players by this data model in 2016. He dropped off in 2017 and 2018 but still above average.
The age column provides some perspective on prospects and David Bote advanced to MLB at age 25, two years older than other prospects. He had a good run in A+ in 2016 and the Cubs tried to promote him to AA and then AAA. He went back to AA in 2017 with average success and then hit well in AAA during the start of 2018.
That is all for now. Part 3 will cover the 2019 White Sox prospects when we get an idea as to what their roster will look like. Season simulations up next. Until then ….