Cubs Status 4/20/2019

This will be the first Cubs status of the year and it will be short because there isn’t enough data for displaying player rankings yet.  Cody Belllinger and Christian Yelich are #1 and #2 and only 19 players qualified to rank in the top 200 so far.  There is about 12 more days before handicap season can begin.  May is still rough waters for handicapping due to not enough data but we’ll talk through that then.

CHN Team Status

18.3 7.9 108 86 9 9 -4.7 0.6 CHN 2019

The above is the team status record used here the last many years.  BAT and PITCH columns are derived from Runs Scored (Rs) and Runs Against (Ra) as follows:

BAT = Rs – Ravg – LR/2

PITCH = Ravg – Ra – UR

Not too complicated.  UR is Unearned Runs above average, Ravg is average runs scored per team which is the same for runs scored and scored against for an obvious reason: for every run scored there must be a run scored against.  UR represents unearned runs above average which is the only official unbiased metric on fielding measured since the beginning of baseball.  LR are lucky runs above average which are runs scored where a batter does not get an RBI but the runner gets an R.  Those runs count too.

The purpose of this model is to simplify things and not be like all other stat sites with huge tables of columns and rows.  Since BAT and PITCH are derived from run differential numbers there is no need to include them in team status records because they are redundant.  UR and LR were included for symmetry.  UR indicates poor or good fielding as a team.  That stays.  There is nothing a team can do to improve lucky runs, runs scored on balks or wild pitches or other kinds of tom foolery.  That column will be eliminated.

Below is the new simplified Team Status record

18.3 7.9 9 9 -4.7 CHN

Cubs are underwater on unearned runs which cost them a couple games early in the season.  BAT and PITCH are both above water and this team is exactly even steven for April so far.  Not much more to say and although the scripts have the league compiled with current rosters, that won’t be displayed until May so there’s not much more to say about this than what does Vegas think of today’s game at Wrigley.

DATE 04_20_2:20_PM ARI CHN
LINEAWAY ARI 0.455 0.426 +135 235
STARTAWAY -0.84 0.338 Zack_Greinke_ARI 23.3 -1.72
LINEUPAWAY 3.26 1.47
RELIEFAWAY -0.67 -1.51
LINEHOME CHN 0.565 0.592 -145 168
STARTHOME -0.57 0.356 Yu_Darvish_CHN 17.7 -1.16
LINEUPHOME 3.63 1.70
RELIEFHOME 0.65 0.16

The above is a shortened preview of the new Ouija Board which will be much more intuitive.  Cubs are favored by almost 3-2 with a 0.592 break even probability.  Both pitchers are under water so far, both lineups around equal, and Cubs have slightly better relief.  Both team W-L records almost equal.

So.  There’s not enough data yet to make a determination on this yet.  The new report will be much more intuitive than the above and all the pertinent numbers used to simulate will be explained.  Until then ….