Cubs Arizona Matchup

Cubs lost the first game of this series and I was too late getting this done yesterday.  The Cubs play Arizona again today so let’s look at this Cubs Arizona matchup.

Team Status

CHN 12 12 8.6 12.1 -3.7
ARI 16 11 28.6 -3.0 2.3

Even though many pundits claimed ARI was not going to have a good team, the above shows they have a good team so far.  Pitching is a little under water but their hitting is very positive considering the players they got rid of this off season.  The Cubs have a balanced BAT and PITCH.  ARI has a +4 team WAA, CHN is now at 0, even steven.

Team status shows seasonal data.  Very early in the season like now, seasonal data pretty much reflects their current roster.  As the season progresses bad players move off teams and teams try and acquire good players to keep improving.  By mid season a team’s value can be very different than their run differential or wins and losses.  Team status is good high level overview and W is the only stat in baseball the MLB Commissioner cares about when determining who goes to the playoffs.

The data below shows break even probabilities for Vegas lines, Tier Combo Simulation, and tier numbers for lineups, starters, and relief.

CHN ARI 04_27_8:10_PM

Vegas 0.519 0.505
TC Sim 0.491 0.509
Expected Value 94 101
Starters -1.35 -3.00
Lineups 0.44 1.11
Relief 1.07 -0.20

The difference between the break even Vegas probability and Tier Combo simulation is negligible causing Expected Value for each team to be less than or slightly above 100.  EV needs to be greater than 115 in order for a line to be a betting opportunity.  Neither line qualifies and it’s April which means all games are discards.

The Starters, Lineups, and Relief rows show a Tier number representing how many 1/2 standard deviations away from the MLB mean.  The distance between Lineup/Starter and Lineup/Relief is calculated by subtracting those numbers and rounding either up or down to get an integer.  This will be explained more throughout the season.

Notice that P(CHN) + P(ARI) > 1 which violates the law of probability.  The excess is the house cut after balancing each side of the bet.  The house never loses because of this.  If betting becomes too heavy on one side of a bet the house changes lines in order to balance the books.  This is how thousands of strangers determine a probability for an event that, as has been shown here, is extremely accurate.

The next table will simply list the two starters.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Yu_Darvish_CHN -0.61 0.379 22.7 -1.35
Zack_Godley_ARI -1.60 0.234 27.0 -3.00

Data for players is being compiled and we’re a few days early showing this.  The above shows two very bad starting pitchers so far this season.  Zack Godley is maxed out at Tier = -3.  This means he is 1.5 standard deviations away from the mean in wrong direction.   At -1.35 Yu Darvish is around -0.6 standard deviations under water so far this season.

Starting in May we’ll show roster data showing how Lineups and Relief staff were calculated and more.  Another table will be introduced to help visualize how Tier Combo integers used in simulation are derived from Lineup, Relief, and Starter numbers shown above.

That is all for now.  The amount of data is still very low which causes some turbulence in handicapping May games.  A side web site will be a rudimentary drill down list for every game and every team.  Until then ….