Cubs Mariners Matchup

Today the Cubs start a new series in Seattle.  Let’s take a look at this Cubs Mariners Matchup.  The game starts very late tonight (9:10 CST) so we’ll have to use last game lineup data for each team which should be close enough.  Since we’re very close to May roster data for Seattle will be shown.

Team Status

TeamID W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 14 12 11.3 16.9 -2.4
SEA 18 13 54.3 -18.2 -21.4

Cubs have balanced hitting and pitching.  Their pitching has improved and now surpasses their hitting.  Seattle has extremely high BAT not good PITCH and extremely underwater UR, unearned runs above average.  It is rare for any team to be this far under water with UR.  Data is tumultuous this early in the season however.  Cubs started out with very under water UR and have been climbing throughout April to get to -2.4.

A new prototype web page now shows standings for teams in all 6 division using the above team status format.  Seattle current leads HOU but not by much and Cubs are middle of NL Central pack.  Let’s take a look at game data for today.

CHN SEA 04_30_10:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 2 0.588 0.497 84 1.33 1.97 2.04
SEA 5 0.429 0.503 117 3.00 -0.26 -0.27

The above table is new and has a lot of columns.  WAA is team WAA which is simply wins minus losses which is the same metric used for players and groups of players.  Player WAA is estimated, Team WAA is real.  The sum of player WAA must and does equal team WAA.

The next column is the break even probability of Vegas lines.  TC Sim shows the break even probability calculated by the tier combo simulations.

EV is Expected Value on a $100 wager should you believe the TC simulation break even probability.  At 117 the SEA line is above our 115 threshold making the Seahawks a betting opportunity tonight.  TC Simulation gives them around a 50/50 flip of a coin chance but Vegas has them at only 43% which means you’ll win around $124 on $100 bet.

The Vegas line for this is constantly changing however.  Current Vegas % for SEA is 0.446 which brings their EV down to 112.  Sometimes you need to jump on these early — or not.  We don’t have tonight’s lineups and we’re using lineups from 4/28.  Plus it’s still April.

The L , S, and R columns represent tier numbers for Lineups, Starters , and Relief staff.  These numbers are used for simulation and they range from +3 to -3.   We’ll get into this more in the next part of the simulation series.

As expected, SEA fields a maxed out +3 lineup which makes sense based upon their BAT in team status.  At +2 Cubs have a fairly high relief staff, one standard deviation above the mean, considering most Cubs fans wouldn’t think so.  We’ll explore this in more detail at the next Cubs status post.

Tables for the above and starters below for all teams each day can be seen here.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.13 0.663 31.3 1.97
Felix_Hernandez_SEA -0.00 0.500 25.3 -0.26

Felix Hernandez started off badly but has recovered to be even steven for the season so far.   He has negative tier number because average starter is above 0 now.  As the season progresses, averages for starters, lineups, and relief continue to rise — until September during call up month — which is a separate issue.

Hamels is almost an entire standard deviation above average.  That a pitcher’s WAA is lower than their Tier number means standard deviation is too low.   As the season progresses it increases for all three categories.  This might cause problems in over or under valuing pitching and lineups during May.  For now it is what it is.

Let’s lookup at Seattle’s last lineup and relief staff.

SEA Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 20190428
0.59 Dee_Gordon_SEA 2B 111
1.91 Domingo_Santana_SEA LF 137
1.39 Daniel_Vogelbach_SEA DH 88
1.49 Edwin_Encarnacion_SEA 1B 117
1.26 Jay_Bruce_SEA 1B 94
1.39 Tim_Beckham_SEA SS 113
1.39 Omar_Narvaez_SEA CR 93
1.49 Ryon_Healy_SEA 3B 122
-0.15 Mallex_Smith_SEA CF 106
Total 10.75 981 0.710

That’s a rock ’em sock ’em lineup.  The 0.710 Win% is why they maxed out their tier number value.

SEA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.82 Brandon_Brennan_SEA 18.3
XXXXX 0.67 Roenis_Elias_SEA 16.7
XXXXX 0.61 Connor_Sadzeck_SEA 11.3
XXXXX 0.42 Zac_Rosscup_SEA 9.3
XXXXX 0.21 Anthony_Swarzak_SEA 9.3
XXXXX 0.00 Chasen_Bradford_SEA 9.3
XXXXX -0.29 Cory_Gearrin_SEA 13.0
-017- -1.64 Mike_Wright_SEA 15.3
Total 0.80 0.535 Win%
102 IP 

The above shows SEA relief is a little above water.  This table needs some work.  Soon all of this for every team will be updated daily on separate pages outside of WordPress.

Update 5/1/2019:  Had to fix some scripts.  Above table is a replacement using 5/1 data so it’s a little different but formatted nicer.  These tables will soon go into a web site showing relief data for every team.  The 0.535 WinPct shows a relief squad above average for the season.  The MLB average relief squad is WAA=+1.23 so technically SEA relief is below league average right now.

That is all for now. Until then ….