Cubs Cardinals Matchup

Cubs start a weekend series with the Cardinals today.  Let’s look at this Cubs Cardinals Matchup.  These matchup posts will usually focus on the team playing the Cubs.  Cubs status and run down of their roster was done yesterday.

SLN 20 11 19.3 8.0 4.6
CHN 16 12 18.3 23.2 -3.4

If the MLB Commish looked at run differential the Cubs would be in first place.  Since W is the only baseball stat he cares about, the Cardinals hold the lead in NL Central.  Both Cardinals and Cubs have a balanced BAT and PITCH.  Cubs are a little under water with UR, unearned runs above average.

Cardinals team WAA is 20-11=+9 , Cubs: 16-12=+4.  DeltaWAA, the difference between AWAY team and HOME team is 9-4=+5.  Divide that by two and the Cubs are 2.5 games behind the Cardinals.  This deltaWAA value is used in simulation which is shown below.

SLN CHN 05_03_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 9 0.524 0.539 102 2.78 0.14 1.51
CHN 4 0.524 0.461 88 2.08 -1.02 2.22

Even though the game starts in 8 minutes Vegas doesn’t know how to set the lines for this game so they set them high and equally for both teams.  TC Sim gives Cardinals an edge today based upon Lineups (L) , Starter (s) , and Relief (R) matchups.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 0.21 0.530 31.0 0.14
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN -0.40 0.429 25.3 -1.02

Hendricks is having a bad start to this year but that doesn’t mean it will continue.  Due to  low standard deviation for Starters this early in the season Hendricks is already one tier below the mean.  Low May standard deviations is something to be investigated but that is fodder for the simulation series of posts.

The EV column above shows neither line to be a betting opportunity with the CHN line being worse than the SLN line.

SLN Lineup

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 20190503
-0.80 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 130
1.03 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 137
0.90 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 134
2.83 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 119
0.82 Jose_Martinez_SLN RF 86
0.46 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 118
0.17 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 117
0.23 Harrison_Bader_SLN CF 67
-0.17 Jack_Flaherty_SLN BAT 11
Total 5.48 0.615

That’s almost a maxed out positive lineup right now.  Matt Carpenter is having a slow start and when he starts hitting well the Cardinals will be tough to beat this season.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+028+ 1.62 John_Brebbia_SLN 18.3
+029+ 1.57 John_Gant_SLN 20.0
XXXXX 0.65 Jordan_Hicks_SLN 12.7
XXXXX 0.19 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 10.3
XXXXX -0.34 Andrew_Miller_SLN 11.3
XXXXX -0.38 Tyler_Webb_SLN 6.7
XXXXX -0.69 Dominic_Leone_SLN 14.0
Total 2.62 0.626

These are the relievers Cubs will face and they are very good.  Two relievers almost in the top 25.  Finally, here are SLN Starters currently listed on their roster according to our data source.

SLN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.40 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 31.3
XXXXX 0.17 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 31.0
XXXXX -0.32 Michael_Wacha_SLN 26.3
XXXXX -0.36 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 30.0
XXXXX -0.40 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 40.0
Total -0.51 0.486

Starting pitching may be the Cardinals’ only weakness this season so far.  Fortunately for the Cubs MLB makes them play these games in real life and not in simulation.  That said, the Cardinals look like a formidable team that could take the NL Central this season requiring the Cubs  to slip in via the Wild Card again.  I know I know, way too early for that talk.  Until then ….