Cubs start a weekend series with the Cardinals today. Let’s look at this Cubs Cardinals Matchup. These matchup posts will usually focus on the team playing the Cubs. Cubs status and run down of their roster was done yesterday.
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 20 | 11 | 19.3 | 8.0 | 4.6 |
| CHN | 16 | 12 | 18.3 | 23.2 | -3.4 |
If the MLB Commish looked at run differential the Cubs would be in first place. Since W is the only baseball stat he cares about, the Cardinals hold the lead in NL Central. Both Cardinals and Cubs have a balanced BAT and PITCH. Cubs are a little under water with UR, unearned runs above average.
Cardinals team WAA is 20-11=+9 , Cubs: 16-12=+4. DeltaWAA, the difference between AWAY team and HOME team is 9-4=+5. Divide that by two and the Cubs are 2.5 games behind the Cardinals. This deltaWAA value is used in simulation which is shown below.
SLN CHN 05_03_2:20_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 9 | 0.524 | 0.539 | 102 | 2.78 | 0.14 | 1.51 |
| CHN | 4 | 0.524 | 0.461 | 88 | 2.08 | -1.02 | 2.22 |
Even though the game starts in 8 minutes Vegas doesn’t know how to set the lines for this game so they set them high and equally for both teams. TC Sim gives Cardinals an edge today based upon Lineups (L) , Starter (s) , and Relief (R) matchups.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 0.21 | 0.530 | 31.0 | 0.14 |
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | -0.40 | 0.429 | 25.3 | -1.02 |
Hendricks is having a bad start to this year but that doesn’t mean it will continue. Due to low standard deviation for Starters this early in the season Hendricks is already one tier below the mean. Low May standard deviations is something to be investigated but that is fodder for the simulation series of posts.
The EV column above shows neither line to be a betting opportunity with the CHN line being worse than the SLN line.
SLN Lineup
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 20190503 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.80 | Matt_Carpenter_SLN | 3B | 130 | |
| 1.03 | Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN | 1B | 137 | |
| 0.90 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 134 | |
| 2.83 | Marcell_Ozuna_SLN | LF | 119 | |
| 0.82 | Jose_Martinez_SLN | RF | 86 | |
| 0.46 | Yadier_Molina_SLN | CR | 118 | |
| 0.17 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 117 | |
| 0.23 | Harrison_Bader_SLN | CF | 67 | |
| -0.17 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | BAT | 11 | |
| Total | 5.48 | 0.615 |
That’s almost a maxed out positive lineup right now. Matt Carpenter is having a slow start and when he starts hitting well the Cardinals will be tough to beat this season.
SLN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +028+ | 1.62 | John_Brebbia_SLN | 18.3 | |
| +029+ | 1.57 | John_Gant_SLN | 20.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Jordan_Hicks_SLN | 12.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.19 | Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN | 10.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Andrew_Miller_SLN | 11.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.38 | Tyler_Webb_SLN | 6.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | Dominic_Leone_SLN | 14.0 | |
| Total | 2.62 | 0.626 |
These are the relievers Cubs will face and they are very good. Two relievers almost in the top 25. Finally, here are SLN Starters currently listed on their roster according to our data source.
SLN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.40 | Adam_Wainwright_SLN | 31.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 31.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.32 | Michael_Wacha_SLN | 26.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Dakota_Hudson_SLN | 30.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 40.0 | |
| Total | -0.51 | 0.486 |
Starting pitching may be the Cardinals’ only weakness this season so far. Fortunately for the Cubs MLB makes them play these games in real life and not in simulation. That said, the Cardinals look like a formidable team that could take the NL Central this season requiring the Cubs to slip in via the Wild Card again. I know I know, way too early for that talk. Until then ….