Tonight the Cubs play the Marlins at Wrigley. Let’s take a look at this Cubs Marlins Matchup by handicapping the first of this four game series.
<anti jinx on>This series should be even more lopsided than earlier in the season when these two teams met </anti jinx off> It is rare for any team to be under -60 in either BAT or PITCH this early in the season. That negative BAT will be reflected in the handicapping numbers below.
MIA CHN 05_06_8:05_PM
The above is about as lopsided as you can get. MIA lineup maxed out negative and relief staff also maxed out at -3.00. Right now tier numbers are capped at either +3 or -3 but that may change in the next iteration of this simulation. Vegas has the Cubs at 0.722 and TCSim has them at 0.696. Expected Value (EV) shows TC Sim agrees with Vegas for this game.
The Vegas line is fluctuating however and was at 0.740 earlier. Games with this high leverage or odds for an underdog requires an accurate lineup and Cubs won’t release that info until a few hours before game time (7pm). Lineups used above are from yesterday which should be close enough. Cubs lineup varies between +1 tier number to +2 tier number depending upon who Joe wants to rest that day.
Let’s look at starting pitching for today. Tier numbers below are shown in the S column above.
Below is the Marlin’s lineup from yesterday which is a maxed out negative lineup.
Plate Appearances represents playing time for hitters. Scanning the above shows the Marlin’s are playing some new guys in the bottom of this lineup. BTW: Ranks didn’t get pulled in above due to a script being under construction. Brian Anderson is #8 in the bottom 200, a list no one want to be #1.
The above shows MIA starting rotation which is slightly above average. Caleb Smith is their ace ranked #12 in the league according to this data model. WAR has him ranked #22 so about the same.
MLB average relief staff is +1.3 now with a standard deviation around 2. This means MIA is more than 2 standard deviations below the mean which should be less than -4 tier number but right now we max out at -3.
In order to change tier number max/min caps of +3 and -3 the entire 100K game dataset will need to be recompiled. This and low standard deviations in May causing large fluctuations will be discussed in the next part to the simulation series. That is all for now. Until then ….