Cubs Marlins Matchup

Tonight the Cubs play the Marlins at Wrigley.  Let’s take a look at this Cubs Marlins Matchup by handicapping the first of this four game series.

BAT PITCH W L UR TeamID
26.9 26.9 19 12 -2.4 CHN
-63.6 -11.2 9 24 3.6 MIA

<anti jinx on>This series should be even more lopsided than earlier in the season when these two teams met </anti jinx off>  It is rare for any team to be under -60 in either BAT or PITCH this early in the season.  That negative BAT will be reflected in the handicapping numbers below.

MIA CHN 05_06_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIA -15 0.303 0.304 100 -3.00 -0.92 -3.00
CHN 7 0.722 0.696 96 1.96 1.99 2.14

The above is about as lopsided as you can get.  MIA lineup maxed out negative  and relief staff also maxed out at -3.00.  Right now tier numbers are capped at either +3 or -3 but that may change in the next iteration of this simulation.  Vegas has the Cubs at 0.722 and TCSim has them at 0.696.  Expected Value (EV) shows TC Sim agrees with Vegas for this game.

The Vegas line is fluctuating however and was at 0.740 earlier.  Games with this high leverage or odds for an underdog requires an accurate lineup and Cubs won’t release that info until a few hours before game time (7pm).  Lineups used above are from yesterday which should be close enough.  Cubs lineup varies between +1 tier number to +2 tier number depending upon who Joe wants to rest that day.

Let’s look at starting pitching for today.  Tier numbers below are shown in the S column above.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Sandy_Alcantara_MIA -0.36 0.452 33.3 -0.92
Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.30 0.660 36.7 1.99

Below is the Marlin’s lineup from yesterday which is a maxed out negative lineup.

MIA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.78 Curtis_Granderson_MIA LF 103
XXXXX -0.40 Martin_Prado_MIA 1B 81
XXXXX -2.31 Brian_Anderson_MIA 3B-RF 133
XXXXX -1.34 Neil_Walker_MIA 1B 93
XXXXX -1.49 Starlin_Castro_MIA 2B 134
XXXXX -1.13 Miguel_Rojas_MIA SS 109
XXXXX -0.42 Chad_Wallach_MIA BAT 35
XXXXX -0.46 Isaac_Galloway_MIA BAT 41
XXXXX -0.21 Pablo_Lopez_MIA BAT 8
Total -8.55

Plate Appearances represents playing time for hitters.  Scanning the above shows the Marlin’s are playing some new guys in the bottom of this lineup.  BTW: Ranks didn’t get pulled in above due to a script being under construction.  Brian Anderson is #8 in the bottom 200, a list no one want to be #1.

MIA Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+012+ 2.04 Caleb_Smith_MIA 36.0
XXXXX 0.34 Pablo_Lopez_MIA 38.0
XXXXX 0.27 Trevor_Richards_MIA 37.3
XXXXX -0.36 Sandy_Alcantara_MIA 33.3
XXXXX -0.94 Jose_Urena_MIA 39.7
Total 1.35 0.533

The above shows MIA starting rotation which is slightly above average.  Caleb Smith is their ace ranked #12 in the league according to this data model.  WAR has him ranked #22 so about the same.

MIA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.71 Austin_Brice_MIA 13.0
XXXXX 0.15 Tayron_Guerrero_MIA 13.7
XXXXX -0.17 Nick_Anderson_MIA 14.7
XXXXX -0.34 Sergio_Romo_MIA 11.0
XXXXX -0.42 Tyler_Kinley_MIA 16.3
XXXXX -0.69 Adam_Conley_MIA 11.7
XXXXX -0.73 Drew_Steckenrider_MIA 13.3
-018- -1.81 Wei-Yin_Chen_MIA 11.0
Total -3.30 0.358

MLB average relief staff is +1.3 now with a standard deviation around 2.  This means MIA is more than 2 standard deviations below the mean which should be less than -4 tier number but right now we max out at -3.

In order to change  tier number  max/min caps of +3 and -3 the entire 100K game dataset will need to be recompiled.  This and low standard deviations in May  causing large fluctuations will  be discussed in the next part to the simulation series.  That is all for now.  Until then ….