Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs start a three game series with the Brewers today.  The game is in the second tied 0-0.  Let’s look at these Milwaukee Brewers Cubs will have to deal with this weekend.

Team Status

CHN 22 13 28.6 32.8 -4.2
MIL 23 16 20.6 -21.4 3.8

The above shows the new team status records which are much simpler to read.  Cubs a little ahead of the Brewers but far ahead in run differential which is how BAT and PITCH are derived.  It looks like the Brewers may have some pitching trouble which we’ll see below.

MIL CHN 05_10_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIL 7 0.490 0.444 91 1.81 0.34 -2.58
CHN 9 0.533 0.556 104 2.39 1.52 0.33

Vegas and TC Sim are almost identical for this game with the Cubs having slightly above 100 Expected Value at 104.   Cubs are fielding a pretty decent lineup at Tier 2.39 which is a little more than one standard deviation above league average for lineups.  MIL has a pretty bad relief staff which helps explain their negative PITCH value in team status.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 0.34 0.647 10.3 0.34
Jose_Quintana_CHN 1.09 0.624 39.7 1.59

Starters for this game are both above average with Quintana an entire tier better.  Starters are teamed with Lineups however, not other starters.  There may be a problem with low standard deviation for starting pitching however which would lower Quintana’s advantage over MIL lineup.  This is fodder for the next simulation series of posts.

MIL Lineup 5/10/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.53 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 168
+002+ 3.74 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 143
XXXXX 0.65 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 132
XXXXX 0.25 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR 131
XXXXX -0.17 Jesus_Aguilar_MIL 1B 113
XXXXX 1.24 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 2B 138
XXXXX -0.25 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B 68
XXXXX -0.21 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 137
XXXXX -0.06 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL BAT 3
Total 5.72 0.606

That’s a Tier 1.81 lineup.  One standard deviations above average is Tier 2 to put that tier number in perspective.  A 0.606 Win% is very good.  Win% is used to put the 5.72 WAA in perspective.  A team that wins a rate of 0.606 usually makes the playoffs.  The raw WAA value is used for averaging however — never the rate.

MIL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+009+ 2.35 Zach_Davies_MIL 40.3
XXXXX 0.34 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 10.3
XXXXX -0.19 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL 42.3
XXXXX -0.90 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 39.3
-023- -1.68 Freddy_Peralta_MIL 26.7
Total -0.08 0.498

The above are some of the starters Cubs will face.  The entire squad is pretty much even steven average which means the negative  PITCH in team status for MIL is entirely due to poor relief.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.97 Junior_Guerra_MIL 21.3
XXXXX 0.48 Josh_Hader_MIL 18.3
XXXXX 0.40 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL 8.7
XXXXX 0.21 Burch_Smith_MIL 2.3
XXXXX 0.02 Alex_Claudio_MIL 18.0
XXXXX -0.17 Matt_Albers_MIL 16.0
XXXXX -0.36 Adrian_Houser_MIL 7.3
-003- -2.86 Corbin_Burnes_MIL 23.0
Total -1.31 0.449

Average relief in MLB is +1.5 with a standard deviation 2.1 so this relief squad has a Tier number of -2.58 as shown in the game table above.

That is all for now. Game now in bottom of 5th, MIL up 1-0.