Cubs start a three game series with the Brewers today. The game is in the second tied 0-0. Let’s look at these Milwaukee Brewers Cubs will have to deal with this weekend.
Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 22 | 13 | 28.6 | 32.8 | -4.2 |
| MIL | 23 | 16 | 20.6 | -21.4 | 3.8 |
The above shows the new team status records which are much simpler to read. Cubs a little ahead of the Brewers but far ahead in run differential which is how BAT and PITCH are derived. It looks like the Brewers may have some pitching trouble which we’ll see below.
MIL CHN 05_10_2:20_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 7 | 0.490 | 0.444 | 91 | 1.81 | 0.34 | -2.58 |
| CHN | 9 | 0.533 | 0.556 | 104 | 2.39 | 1.52 | 0.33 |
Vegas and TC Sim are almost identical for this game with the Cubs having slightly above 100 Expected Value at 104. Cubs are fielding a pretty decent lineup at Tier 2.39 which is a little more than one standard deviation above league average for lineups. MIL has a pretty bad relief staff which helps explain their negative PITCH value in team status.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | 0.34 | 0.647 | 10.3 | 0.34 |
| Jose_Quintana_CHN | 1.09 | 0.624 | 39.7 | 1.59 |
Starters for this game are both above average with Quintana an entire tier better. Starters are teamed with Lineups however, not other starters. There may be a problem with low standard deviation for starting pitching however which would lower Quintana’s advantage over MIL lineup. This is fodder for the next simulation series of posts.
MIL Lineup 5/10/2019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.53 | Lorenzo_Cain_MIL | CF | 168 |
| +002+ | 3.74 | Christian_Yelich_MIL | RF | 143 |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Ryan_Braun_MIL | LF | 132 |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Yasmani_Grandal_MIL | CR | 131 |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Jesus_Aguilar_MIL | 1B | 113 |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Mike_Moustakas_MIL | 2B | 138 |
| XXXXX | -0.25 | Hernan_Perez_MIL | 2B | 68 |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Orlando_Arcia_MIL | SS | 137 |
| XXXXX | -0.06 | Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | BAT | 3 |
| Total | 5.72 | 0.606 |
That’s a Tier 1.81 lineup. One standard deviations above average is Tier 2 to put that tier number in perspective. A 0.606 Win% is very good. Win% is used to put the 5.72 WAA in perspective. A team that wins a rate of 0.606 usually makes the playoffs. The raw WAA value is used for averaging however — never the rate.
MIL Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +009+ | 2.35 | Zach_Davies_MIL | 40.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.34 | Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | 10.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.19 | Brandon_Woodruff_MIL | 42.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.90 | Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL | 39.3 | |
| -023- | -1.68 | Freddy_Peralta_MIL | 26.7 | |
| Total | -0.08 | 0.498 |
The above are some of the starters Cubs will face. The entire squad is pretty much even steven average which means the negative PITCH in team status for MIL is entirely due to poor relief.
MIL Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.97 | Junior_Guerra_MIL | 21.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Josh_Hader_MIL | 18.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL | 8.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.21 | Burch_Smith_MIL | 2.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Alex_Claudio_MIL | 18.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Matt_Albers_MIL | 16.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Adrian_Houser_MIL | 7.3 | |
| -003- | -2.86 | Corbin_Burnes_MIL | 23.0 | |
| Total | -1.31 | 0.449 |
Average relief in MLB is +1.5 with a standard deviation 2.1 so this relief squad has a Tier number of -2.58 as shown in the game table above.
That is all for now. Game now in bottom of 5th, MIL up 1-0.