Cubs start a series with the Reds today at 5:40 pm. Let’s look at this current Reds team.
CIN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 13 | 17 | -27.1 | 33.2 | 7.3 | 20190502 |
| CIN | 18 | 23 | -12.9 | 36.3 | 8.9 | 20190514 |
The above shows a snapshot taken today and another taken 12 days ago. The Reds went 5-6 losing a game so they’re WAA = -5. Still early in the season and they aren’t out of it. Pitching looks good based on seasonal run differential, hitting has improved even though they lost a game, and they have good Unearned Runs above average of +8.9
Let’s look at their tier numbers used for simulation.
CHN CIN 05_14_6:40_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 10 | 0.512 | 0.560 | 109 | 0.68 | 1.68 | 0.55 |
| CIN | -5 | 0.512 | 0.440 | 86 | -0.67 | 1.23 | 0.87 |
Vegas is calling this even steven. Lines tend to lean towards home teams due to irrational exuberance. TC Simulation has the Cubs at 0.540 which puts their Expected Value (EV) on a 100 bet at 109, below the 115 threshold.
Hendricks is a slightly better pitcher according to this data model but he’s in WAR’s dog house. WAR has him at 0.4 and Roark at 0.9. Cubs fielding a better lineup and Relief squads are about the same.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 1.24 | 0.632 | 42.3 | 1.68 |
| Tanner_Roark_CIN | 0.94 | 0.603 | 41.3 | 1.23 |
Below are CIN starters the Cubs will have to face during this series.
CIN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | IP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +003+ | 3.28 | Luis_Castillo_CIN | SP | 56.3 | |||
| XXXXX | 0.94 | Tanner_Roark_CIN | SP | 41.3 | |||
| XXXXX | 0.29 | Tyler_Mahle_CIN | SP | 45.3 | |||
| XXXXX | 0.08 | Sonny_Gray_CIN | SP | 39.0 | |||
| XXXXX | 0.08 | Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN | SP | 41.0 | |||
| Total | 4.67 | 0.594 |
Not bad considering the Reds have suffered badly with bad starters these last few years. This model has Castillo ranked #3 and WAR has him ranked #7 in MLB so about the same. Starters a tiered on an individual basis however, not as a squad. Relief pitching is tiered as a squad shown below.
CIN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Michael_Lorenzen_CIN | 21.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Amir_Garrett_CIN | 17.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.55 | Robert_Stephenson_CIN | 18.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.27 | Wandy_Peralta_CIN | 13.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.27 | David_Hernandez_CIN | 19.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Raisel_Iglesias_CIN | 19.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Jared_Hughes_CIN | 17.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.78 | Zach_Duke_CIN | 13.3 | |
| Total | 2.66 | 0.586 |
Not bad and slightly better than Cubs relief. Cubs data will be shown in a few days when we do Cubs Status again. According to the game table above CIN Relief (R) has a Tier number +0.87. Each tier number is 1/2 standard deviation above or below league mean so CIN is above current league average RP of 1.63.
CIN Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Nick_Senzel_CIN | CF | 49 |
| -059- | -1.41 | Joey_Votto_CIN | 1B | 160 |
| XXXXX | 0.94 | Eugenio_Suarez_CIN | 3B | 167 |
| XXXXX | 0.34 | Jesse_Winker_CIN | LF | 137 |
| XXXXX | 0.17 | Yasiel_Puig_CIN | RF | 156 |
| +060+ | 1.57 | Derek_Dietrich_CIN | 2B | 100 |
| XXXXX | -0.38 | Jose_Iglesias_CIN | SS | 132 |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Tanner_Roark_CIN | BAT | 13 |
| XXXXX | -0.59 | Tucker_Barnhart_CIN | CR | 111 |
| Total | 0.53 | 0.510 |
The Reds have been struggling with hitting so far this year which is a reversal from last few years when their hitting was very good but their pitching lost games for them. Although the above lineup is technically above average according to seasonal data, the current average team lineup is now at 2.11 so they are still below league average.
The CIN lineup -> starter combo pits CIN lineup against CHN starter which is.
CIN lineup – CHN starter = -0.67 – 1.24 = -2
A tier combo must be rounded to an integer so Reds’ lineup is two tiers below Kyle Hendricks. The simulation uses this to determine which distribution to pull run data from the historical dataset.
Win% numbers are computed using seasonal numbers, Tier numbers are computed using current roster data. Win% is only shown to put a sum of WAAs into context.
Enough of that, let’s take a look at Cubs lineup for today.
CHN Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF-CF | 147 |
| +046+ | 1.68 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | 170 |
| +027+ | 1.95 | Javier_Baez_CHN | SS | 172 |
| +075+ | 1.41 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | CR | 139 |
| XXXXX | -0.99 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 130 |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | David_Bote_CHN | 3B-2B | 117 |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Daniel_Descalso_CHN | 2B | 103 |
| XXXXX | -0.57 | Albert_Almora_CHN | CF | 114 |
| XXXXX | -0.29 | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | BAT | 16 |
| Total | 3.67 | 0.564 |
Looks like Joe is resting Anthony Rizzo today. At WAA=+3.67 Cubs fielding a slightly above the 2.11 average lineup today but not their best. As the season progresses team average lineups continue to rise because negative players get replaced by non-negative players.
That’s all for now. New Cubs status coming soon as well as another simulation explanation post because it appears another iteration will be necessary. Until then ….