Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Reds today at 5:40 pm.  Let’s look at this current Reds team.

CIN Team Status

CIN 13 17 -27.1 33.2 7.3 20190502
CIN 18 23 -12.9 36.3 8.9 20190514

The above shows a snapshot taken today and another taken 12 days ago.  The Reds went 5-6 losing a game so they’re WAA = -5.  Still early in the season and they aren’t out of it.  Pitching looks good based on seasonal run differential, hitting has improved even though they lost a game, and they have good Unearned Runs above average of +8.9

Let’s look at their tier numbers used for simulation.

CHN CIN 05_14_6:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.512 0.560 109 0.68 1.68 0.55
CIN -5 0.512 0.440 86 -0.67 1.23 0.87

Vegas is calling this even steven.  Lines tend to lean towards home teams due to irrational exuberance.  TC Simulation has the Cubs at 0.540 which puts their Expected Value (EV) on a 100 bet at 109, below the 115 threshold.

Hendricks is a slightly better pitcher according to this data model but he’s in WAR’s dog  house.  WAR has him at 0.4 and Roark at 0.9.  Cubs fielding a better lineup and Relief squads are about the same.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.24 0.632 42.3 1.68
Tanner_Roark_CIN 0.94 0.603 41.3 1.23

Below are CIN starters the Cubs will have to face during this series.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos  IP
+003+ 3.28 Luis_Castillo_CIN SP 56.3
XXXXX 0.94 Tanner_Roark_CIN SP 41.3
XXXXX 0.29 Tyler_Mahle_CIN SP 45.3
XXXXX 0.08 Sonny_Gray_CIN SP 39.0
XXXXX 0.08 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN SP 41.0
Total  4.67 0.594

Not bad considering the Reds have suffered badly with bad starters these last few years.  This model has Castillo ranked #3 and WAR has him ranked #7 in MLB so about the same.  Starters a tiered on an individual basis however, not as a squad.  Relief pitching is tiered as a squad shown below.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 1.24 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 21.0
XXXXX 1.05 Amir_Garrett_CIN 17.0
XXXXX 0.55 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 18.3
XXXXX 0.27 Wandy_Peralta_CIN 13.3
XXXXX 0.27 David_Hernandez_CIN 19.7
XXXXX 0.06 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 19.7
XXXXX 0.00 Jared_Hughes_CIN 17.0
XXXXX -0.78 Zach_Duke_CIN 13.3
Total 2.66 0.586

Not bad and slightly better than Cubs relief.  Cubs data will be shown in a few days when we do Cubs Status again.  According to the game table above CIN Relief (R) has a Tier number +0.87.  Each tier number is 1/2 standard deviation above or below league mean so CIN  is above current league average RP of 1.63.

CIN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.23 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 49
-059- -1.41 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 160
XXXXX 0.94 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 167
XXXXX 0.34 Jesse_Winker_CIN LF 137
XXXXX 0.17 Yasiel_Puig_CIN RF 156
+060+ 1.57 Derek_Dietrich_CIN 2B 100
XXXXX -0.38 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 132
XXXXX -0.34 Tanner_Roark_CIN BAT 13
XXXXX -0.59 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN CR 111
Total 0.53 0.510

The Reds have been struggling with hitting so far this year which is a reversal from last few years when their hitting was very good but their pitching lost games for them.  Although the above lineup is technically above average according to seasonal data, the current average team lineup is now at 2.11 so they are still below league average.

The CIN lineup -> starter combo pits CIN lineup against CHN starter which is.

CIN lineup – CHN starter = -0.67 – 1.24  = -2

A tier combo must be rounded to an integer so Reds’ lineup is two tiers below Kyle Hendricks.  The simulation uses this to determine which distribution to pull run data from the historical dataset.

Win% numbers are computed using seasonal numbers, Tier numbers are computed using current roster data.  Win% is only shown to put a sum of WAAs into context.

Enough of that, let’s take a look at Cubs lineup for today.

CHN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.06 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF 147
+046+ 1.68 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 170
+027+ 1.95 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 172
+075+ 1.41 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR 139
XXXXX -0.99 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 130
XXXXX 0.40 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B 117
XXXXX 0.02 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B 103
XXXXX -0.57 Albert_Almora_CHN CF 114
XXXXX -0.29 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN BAT 16
Total 3.67 0.564

Looks like Joe is resting Anthony Rizzo today.  At WAA=+3.67 Cubs fielding a slightly above the 2.11 average lineup today but not their best.  As the season progresses team average lineups continue to rise because negative players get replaced by non-negative players.

That’s all  for now.  New Cubs status coming soon as well as another simulation explanation post because it appears another iteration will be necessary.  Until then ….