Cubs Status 5/20/2019

Today the Cubs start a home series with the Phillies.  Since Cubs Status hasn’t been done in 18 days let’s get that over with and do the Phillies tomorrow.  Here is Cubs status for the beginning of day on 5/20/2019.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 16 12 20.4 21.3 -3.7 20190502
CHN 27 17 26.5 35.5 -3.0 20190520

During the last 18 days the Cubs went 11-5 gaining 6 games.  BAT improved, PITCH improved even more and their UR is getting better.  Nothing to complain about.  This is a very balanced team.  Let’s look at Tier Data numbers used in simulation.

CHN Tier Data

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 1.67
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -1.40
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.99
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.87
SP Jon_Lester_CHN 2.99
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.87
RP 0.08

Each Tier # is 1/2 standard deviation above the current team average which will differ from seasonal averages as the season progresses and players get moved in and out of each team.  Cubs last lineup was 1.67 ( 1/2 standard deviations ) or around 0.8 standard deviation above current league average for that lineup snapshot taken yesterday.

Starters (SP) are listed individually because the entire category rests on a single person.  Relief (RP) is the group of relievers according to the current roster.  Their relief is almost exactly current league average for a team even though they are above average using seasonal averages as shown below.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+018+ 2.31 Jon_Lester_CHN 43.0
+067+ 1.62 Cole_Hamels_CHN 54.7
+077+ 1.53 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 56.0
XXXXX 0.84 Jose_Quintana_CHN 51.3
XXXXX -0.73 Yu_Darvish_CHN 42.0
Total 5.57 0.601

Pretty good set of starters.  The sum of WAA and WinPct are included for reference.  Simulations view starters individually.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.99 Steve_Cishek_CHN 22.0
XXXXX 0.86 Brad_Brach_CHN 18.7
XXXXX 0.82 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 24.3
XXXXX 0.50 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 21.3
XXXXX 0.17 Xavier_Cedeno_CHN 1.7
XXXXX -0.04 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 14.0
XXXXX -0.42 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 10.3
XXXXX -0.78 Carl_Edwards_CHN 6.7
Total 2.10 0.579

WinPct is kind of high for a league average relief staff.  This is because Cubs have been moving relievers in and out which lowers total innings pitched.  The WinPct puts the 2.10 in context but the total WAA is all that matters in simulation for relief.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+026+ 2.18 Kris_Bryant_CHN 199
+040+ 1.89 Javier_Baez_CHN 198
+080+ 1.53 Willson_Contreras_CHN 162
+089+ 1.43 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 183
XXXXX 0.42 Victor_Caratini_CHN 21
XXXXX 0.36 David_Bote_CHN 129
XXXXX 0.00 Albert_Almora_CHN 135
XXXXX -0.04 Addison_Russell_CHN 23
XXXXX -0.10 Jason_Heyward_CHN 173
XXXXX -0.15 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 120
XXXXX -0.17 Mark_Zagunis_CHN 36
XXXXX -0.55 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN 157
Total 6.80 0.581

The above shows all hitters on the CHN roster (our source can lag a few days).  Simulation uses the opening posted lineups which can vary from day to day for each team.  It looks like Kris Bryant passed Javier Baez.  Four guys in the top 100 is excellent.  Anthony Rizzo chugging along same as usual.  The last time Willson Contreras had a positive year hitting the Cubs won a World Series.

Bryant gained +2 WAA since May 1 which is an amazing rate.  Gaining +2 each month for 6 months puts him #1 in the league for most years.  <anti jinx> Still a long way to go but looks like Kris Bryant is back in form.  BTW: The last time Kris Bryant won MVP the Cubs won a World Series.    </anti jinx>

That’s all for now.  A look at the Phillies tomorrow.  Until then ….