Cubs Reds Matchup

Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Reds on a Friday at Wrigley so it’s a 1:20pm game.  Let’s take a look at this Reds team.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 16 22 -15.4 32.7 7.8 20190510
CIN 22 27 -24.9 40.4 11.2 20190524

Reds went 6-5 these last two weeks gaining a game.  BAT tanked as much as PITCH has improved and their Unearned Runs above average at +11.2 is extremely good and has improved as well.   Unfortunately for the Reds the NL Central is very good again this year so they’re stuck in last place in the division.  In past years CIN has had decent hitting and terrible pitching.

CIN CHN 05_24_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN -5 0.377 0.379 100 -1.34 -0.77 1.10
CHN 10 0.643 0.621 96 1.88 1.61 0.18

The above game table shows the two lines according to Vegas and TC Sim.  TC Sim is almost in complete agreement with Vegas so Expected Value, EV is 100 or less for each team making this game a complete discard.  The L , S , and R columns show tier numbers for Lineups , Starters, and Relief.  Every 2 tier numbers is one standard deviation from the mean.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN -0.27 0.473 45.0 -0.77
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.45 0.616 56.0 1.61

The above shows the two starters and their tier numbers used in simulation.  After starting slow Hendricks is back in the top 100 and climbing.  WAR has him unranked at 0.7 and DeSclafini at 0.2 so not much difference according to that value system.

Tier Combo simulation pairs home/away lineups with starters, and lineup with relief.  Tier numbers are subtracted between the two and made into an integer used in simulation.  Another iteration of this simulation is coming soon but the results from a game like this shouldn’t be affected.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+009+ 2.94 Luis_Castillo_CIN 64.3
XXXXX 0.99 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 51.3
XXXXX 0.99 Tanner_Roark_CIN 51.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sonny_Gray_CIN 50.0
XXXXX -0.27 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 45.0
Total 5.30 0.591

Above are current Reds starters.  As a group they’re above average but simulation uses the tier number for whoever is starting that day.  The Total for the group is for informational purposes.  Totals for Relief staff as group however are used for each game as shown below.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+100+ 1.43 Amir_Garrett_CIN 20.3
XXXXX 1.09 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 25.3
XXXXX 0.57 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 24.3
XXXXX 0.48 Jared_Hughes_CIN 21.3
XXXXX 0.36 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 22.3
XXXXX 0.36 David_Hernandez_CIN 24.3
XXXXX -0.63 Wandy_Peralta_CIN 16.7
Total 3.66 0.607

Average relief staff league wide is 2.04 currently so CIN is a little over 1/2 standard deviation above average giving them a tier number of 1.10 as shown in the game table above.  Since we’re still very early in the season rates like WinPct can be distorted.  A > 0.600 win percentage will yield a higher tier number later in the season.  This is true for each tier category.

CIN Lineup 5/24/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.32 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 85
-028- -1.89 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 195
XXXXX 0.88 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 201
XXXXX -0.04 Jesse_Winker_CIN LF 164
XXXXX -0.19 Yasiel_Puig_CIN RF 178
+073+ 1.64 Derek_Dietrich_CIN 2B 119
XXXXX -0.63 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 162
XXXXX -0.55 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN CR 127
XXXXX -0.42 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN BAT 16
Total -1.52 0.477

Since the game starts in 20 minutes we have a current lineup today.  Looks like Joey Votto isn’t having a good year yet Derek Dietrich is.  Baseball can be funny like that.  Overall this lineup is under water and below average as a group, as one would expect from their poor BAT in team status.

Average lineups now are at +1.9 so this lineup is over 1/2 standard deviation below average giving them a Tier number of -1.34 as shown above in the game table.  When facing Hendricks who is +1.35 that tier combo is -1.34 – (1.35) = -2.7 , rounded down to -3.  TC simulation draws runs for CIN from the -3 category using historical data.

That is all for now.  Simulation update soon as there will be another iteration to correct May anomalies and other problems.  Until then ….