Today Cubs play the Astros at 1:10 or about in 20 minutes. Here are the matchup numbers as of the start of this series.
HOU Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 26 | 15 | 39.0 | 25.5 | 6.8 | 20190513 |
| HOU | 35 | 19 | 36.6 | 46.4 | 7.7 | 20190527 |
Houston went 9-4 these last two weeks so they’re on a roll gaining 5 games. This is largely due to pitching according to PITCH which is based off of Runs scored against them. Let’s see how that breaks down below.
CHN HOU 05_27_2:10_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 9 | 0.380 | 0.505 | 133 | 1.66 | 1.38 | -0.04 |
| HOU | 16 | 0.634 | 0.495 | 78 | 0.07 | -0.05 | 1.99 |
Game table shows a big difference between Vegas and Tier Combo simulation. This is due to Gerrit Cole pitching pretty average this season so far as shown below and HOU fielding a very different lineup than normal. TC Sim requires another iteration and because there are so many new guys playing for HOU today and that the guys they replace are still sitting in the dugout this game should be a discard.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole_Hamels_CHN | 1.36 | 0.605 | 58.7 | 1.38 |
| Gerrit_Cole_HOU | 0.25 | 0.517 | 65.7 | -0.05 |
Above are the two starters pitching today. Vegas is banking on Gerrit Cole’s stellar career numbers which this model does not do — yet. Let’s look at these two pitchers differently with a new prototype table showing progression through the season by date.
Cole_Hamels_CHN
| 2019 | Rank | WAA |
|---|---|---|
| 0501 | +048+ | 1.26 |
| 0505 | +053+ | 1.30 |
| 0509 | XXXXX | 1.20 |
| 0513 | +056+ | 1.53 |
| 0517 | +066+ | 1.53 |
| 0521 | +074+ | 1.55 |
| 0525 | +120+ | 1.32 |
| 0527 | +114+ | 1.36 |
March and April results not shown. The above show Cole Hamels dropping in rank from the beginning of May because he pitched almost exactly league average gaining only 0.1. That’s better than losing a bunch of WAA however.
Gerrit_Cole_HOU
| 2019 | Rank | WAA |
|---|---|---|
| 0501 | XXXXX | 0.36 |
| 0505 | XXXXX | 0.46 |
| 0509 | XXXXX | 0.21 |
| 0513 | XXXXX | 0.50 |
| 0517 | XXXXX | 0.53 |
| 0521 | XXXXX | 0.97 |
| 0525 | XXXXX | 0.21 |
| 0527 | XXXXX | 0.25 |
Gerrit Cole also has been hovering around average not only in May but all season. Average is below average for a pitcher like Gerrit Cole. Vegas is banking on last year’s Gerrit Cole to pitch today.
HOU Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +006+ | 3.49 | Justin_Verlander_HOU | 79.3 | |
| +111+ | 1.39 | Wade_Miley_HOU | 62.3 | |
| +115+ | 1.36 | Brad_Peacock_HOU | 53.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Gerrit_Cole_HOU | 65.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Corbin_Martin_HOU | 12.7 | |
| Total | 6.28 | 0.603 |
Above are the set of starters on HOU roster.
HOU Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +035+ | 2.12 | Ryan_Pressly_HOU | 23.3 | |
| +100+ | 1.49 | Roberto_Osuna_HOU | 23.3 | |
| +118+ | 1.34 | Will_Harris_HOU | 17.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.67 | Hector_Rondon_HOU | 17.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.29 | Framber_Valdez_HOU | 22.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Brady_Rodgers_HOU | 2.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.19 | Josh_James_HOU | 27.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Chris_Devenski_HOU | 19.7 | |
| Total | 5.34 | 0.657 |
Relief very good and they’re almost one complete standard deviation above current league average.
HOU Lineup 5/27/2019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.61 | Josh_Reddick_HOU | RF-LF | 189 |
| +099+ | 1.49 | Alex_Bregman_HOU | 3B | 228 |
| +135+ | 1.26 | Michael_Brantley_HOU | LF-DH | 220 |
| XXXXX | -0.42 | Yuli_Gurriel_HOU | 1B | 203 |
| XXXXX | 0.80 | Robinson_Chirinos_HOU | CR | 153 |
| XXXXX | 0 | Jack_Mayfield_HOU | none | 0 |
| XXXXX | -1.18 | Tyler_White_HOU | DH-1B | 113 |
| XXXXX | 0 | Derek_Fisher_HOU | BAT | 4 |
| XXXXX | 0.76 | Jake_Marisnick_HOU | CF | 107 |
| Total | 2.00 | 0.532 |
Above is today’s lineup for HOU and you can see from the PA column who the two new guys playing are. PA represents time in this data model for batters, outs for pitchers.
That’s all there is. Game starts in 9 minutes. Until then ….