Cubs Astros Matchup

Today Cubs play the Astros at 1:10 or about in 20 minutes.  Here are the matchup numbers as of the start of this series.

HOU Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
HOU 26 15 39.0 25.5 6.8 20190513
HOU 35 19 36.6 46.4 7.7 20190527

Houston went 9-4 these last two weeks so they’re on a roll gaining 5 games.  This is largely due to pitching according to PITCH which is based off of Runs scored against them.  Let’s see how that breaks down below.

CHN HOU 05_27_2:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 0.380 0.505 133 1.66 1.38 -0.04
HOU 16 0.634 0.495 78 0.07 -0.05 1.99

Game table shows a big difference between Vegas and Tier Combo simulation.  This is due to Gerrit Cole pitching pretty average this season so far as shown below and HOU fielding a very different lineup than normal.  TC Sim requires another iteration and because there are so many new guys  playing for HOU today and that the guys they replace are still sitting in the dugout this game should be a discard.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.36 0.605 58.7 1.38
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 0.25 0.517 65.7 -0.05

Above are the two starters pitching today.  Vegas is banking on Gerrit Cole’s stellar career numbers which this model does not do — yet.  Let’s look at these two pitchers differently with a new prototype table showing progression through the season by date.

Cole_Hamels_CHN

2019 Rank WAA
0501 +048+ 1.26
0505 +053+ 1.30
0509 XXXXX 1.20
0513 +056+ 1.53
0517 +066+ 1.53
0521 +074+ 1.55
0525 +120+ 1.32
0527 +114+ 1.36

March and April results not shown.  The above show Cole Hamels dropping in rank from the beginning of May because he pitched almost exactly league average gaining only 0.1.  That’s better than losing a bunch of WAA however.

Gerrit_Cole_HOU

2019 Rank WAA
0501 XXXXX 0.36
0505 XXXXX 0.46
0509 XXXXX 0.21
0513 XXXXX 0.50
0517 XXXXX 0.53
0521 XXXXX 0.97
0525 XXXXX 0.21
0527 XXXXX 0.25

Gerrit Cole also has been hovering around average not only in May but all season.  Average is below average for a pitcher like Gerrit Cole.  Vegas is banking on last year’s Gerrit Cole to pitch today.

HOU Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+006+ 3.49 Justin_Verlander_HOU 79.3
+111+ 1.39 Wade_Miley_HOU 62.3
+115+ 1.36 Brad_Peacock_HOU 53.7
XXXXX 0.25 Gerrit_Cole_HOU 65.7
XXXXX -0.21 Corbin_Martin_HOU 12.7
Total 6.28 0.603

Above are the set of starters on HOU roster.

HOU Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+035+ 2.12 Ryan_Pressly_HOU 23.3
+100+ 1.49 Roberto_Osuna_HOU 23.3
+118+ 1.34 Will_Harris_HOU 17.7
XXXXX 0.67 Hector_Rondon_HOU 17.3
XXXXX 0.29 Framber_Valdez_HOU 22.0
XXXXX -0.02 Brady_Rodgers_HOU 2.0
XXXXX -0.19 Josh_James_HOU 27.7
XXXXX -0.36 Chris_Devenski_HOU 19.7
Total 5.34 0.657

Relief very good and they’re almost one complete standard deviation above current league average.

HOU Lineup 5/27/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.61 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 189
+099+ 1.49 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B 228
+135+ 1.26 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 220
XXXXX -0.42 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B 203
XXXXX 0.80 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 153
XXXXX 0 Jack_Mayfield_HOU none 0
XXXXX -1.18 Tyler_White_HOU DH-1B 113
XXXXX 0 Derek_Fisher_HOU BAT 4
XXXXX 0.76 Jake_Marisnick_HOU CF 107
Total 2.00 0.532

Above is today’s lineup for HOU and you can see from the PA column who the two new guys playing are.  PA represents time in this data model for batters,  outs for pitchers.

That’s all there is.  Game starts in 9 minutes.  Until then ….