It has been 10 days since last team status and today is a day off. A new series starts tomorrow so let’s look at the Cubs as of the end of May, 2 months or 1/3 into the 2019 season. Still 4 more months to go.
CHN Team Status
Cubs went 6-8 these last two weeks losing 2 games and it looks like they didn’t get a day off either. BAT improved, PITCH tanked and UR stayed the same which means they fielded league average these last two weeks.
The above table shows current tier numbers for the three main categories used in simulation. A +1 tier number is 1/2 standard deviations above current league average for that category. Hendricks is top tier as well as their last posted lineup. Relief which is usually good is still hovering around average. The above is based on the current roster this model gets which can lag a day or two.
Hendricks is pitching very well this season even with a few down games. Lester has been in a slump this May and even though he is technically above average, he’s now unranked. Let’s look at Lester’s May trajectory.
The above shows he started the month of May at WAA=1.01 and ended the month of May at WAA=1.01. This means Lester pitched completely average even though he rose to rank #5 in MLB on 5/13. It’s a long season however.
The Win% above is deceiving which is why it’s only presented to provide context. A WAA=2.83 is around 1/4 standard deviation above league average for relief staff. In past years Cubs fielded top of the league relief staffs. Still early in the season though.
<anti jinx on> Who would have thought 2 months into the season Tyler Chatwood would be the Cubs highest ranking reliever? </anti jinx> Season far from over!
The model uses game lineups for tiering against league averages. The above shows an above average set of hitters which is reflected in BAT in team status. Rizzo surpassed Bryant and Baez. Let’s look at his trajectory for May.
Rizzo usually maintains a level ranked between 25 and 50 each season. In order to maintain rank in this model he needs to keep up with the rest of the league around his rank.
That is all for the Cubs for awhile. Next up Cubs Cardinals matchup and then we’ll do another playoff horse race snapshot and see strengths and weaknesses of the top 15 MLB teams so far. Until then ….