Cubs Status 5/30/2019

It has been 10 days since last team status and today is a day off.  A new series starts tomorrow so let’s look at the Cubs as of the end of May, 2 months or 1/3 into the 2019 season.  Still 4 more months to go.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 25 15 20.5 39.5 -4.5 20190516
CHN 31 23 28.7 26.6 -4.4 20190530

Cubs went 6-8 these last two weeks losing 2 games and it looks like they didn’t get a day off either.  BAT improved, PITCH tanked and UR stayed the same which means they fielded  league average these last two weeks.

CHN Tiers

Lineups 2.59
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -2.15
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.28
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.35
SP Jon_Lester_CHN 0.86
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.83
RP 0.58

The above table shows current tier numbers for the three main categories used in simulation.  A +1 tier number is 1/2 standard deviations above current league average for that category.  Hendricks is top tier as well as their last posted lineup.  Relief which is usually good is still hovering around average.  The above is based on the current roster this model gets which can lag a day or two.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+040+ 2.14 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 70.0
XXXXX 1.01 Jon_Lester_CHN 52.7
XXXXX 0.99 Jose_Quintana_CHN 62.7
XXXXX 0.57 Cole_Hamels_CHN 62.7
-108- -1.28 Yu_Darvish_CHN 55.0
Total 3.43 0.551

Hendricks is pitching very well this season even with a few down games.  Lester has been in a slump this May and even though he is technically above average, he’s now unranked.  Let’s look at Lester’s May trajectory.

Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH

YEAR Rank WAA
0501 XXXXX 1.01
0505 +022+ 1.81
0509 +009+ 2.37
0513 +005+ 2.92
0517 +008+ 2.94
0521 +025+ 2.27
0525 +054+ 1.83
0530 XXXXX 1.01

The above shows he started the month of May at WAA=1.01 and ended the month of May at WAA=1.01.  This means Lester pitched completely average even though he rose to rank #5 in MLB on 5/13.  It’s a long season however.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 1.11 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 29.3
XXXXX 0.92 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 25.3
XXXXX 0.78 Steve_Cishek_CHN 24.0
XXXXX 0.48 Dillon_Maples_CHN 4.7
XXXXX 0.44 Brad_Brach_CHN 22.7
XXXXX -0.04 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 18.0
XXXXX -0.06 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 13.7
XXXXX -0.80 Carl_Edwards_CHN 10.7
Total 2.83 0.586

The Win% above is deceiving which is why it’s only presented to provide context.  A WAA=2.83  is around 1/4 standard deviation above league average for relief staff.  In past years Cubs fielded top of the league relief staffs.  Still early in the season though.

<anti jinx on> Who would have thought 2 months into the season Tyler Chatwood would be the Cubs highest ranking reliever? </anti jinx>  Season far from over!

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+028+ 2.52 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 228
+030+ 2.44 Kris_Bryant_CHN 231
+082+ 1.64 Javier_Baez_CHN 234
+130+ 1.26 Willson_Contreras_CHN 194
XXXXX 0.55 David_Bote_CHN 155
XXXXX 0.25 Albert_Almora_CHN 176
XXXXX -0.04 Addison_Russell_CHN 57
XXXXX -0.06 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN 205
XXXXX -0.10 Victor_Caratini_CHN 38
XXXXX NA Jim_Adduci_CHN 4
XXXXX -0.38 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 146
XXXXX -0.44 Jason_Heyward_CHN 208
Total 7.54 0.573

The model uses game lineups for tiering against league averages.  The above shows an above average set of hitters which is reflected in BAT in team status.  Rizzo surpassed Bryant and Baez.  Let’s look at his trajectory for May.

Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B

YEAR Rank WAA
0501 XXXXX 0.82
0505 XXXXX 1.18
0509 +058+ 1.41
0513 +069+ 1.43
0517 +079+ 1.43
0521 +090+ 1.45
0525 +018+ 2.60
0530 +028+ 2.52

Rizzo usually maintains a level ranked between 25 and 50 each season.  In order to maintain rank in this model he needs to keep up with the rest of the league around his rank.

That is all for the Cubs for awhile.  Next up Cubs Cardinals matchup and then we’ll do another playoff horse race snapshot and see strengths and weaknesses of the top 15 MLB teams so far.   Until then ….