Cubs Angels Matchup

It’s another work day for Cubs players and today they start a series against the Anaheim Angels and Mike Trout. Let’s look at this Angels team.

Edit: Looks like this is a one game make up game and not a three game series.

ANA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ANA 13 17 6.0 -15.0 4.9 20190501
ANA 29 30 21.4 -28.7 11.9 20190603

ANA went 16 – 13 since May 1 gaining 3 games and they’re now almost even steven for the year.  BAT and Unearned Runs above average (UR)  improved while PITCH tanked.  Having guys like Mike Trout on your team can improve defense fundamentals for every fielder and the above UR is second in MLB behind CIN right now.

Unfortunately for ANA, HOU is running away with the AL West so they’ll be stuck once again fighting it out for a Wild Card spot.  Even steven for the year means they’re in that race.

ANA CHN 06_03_4:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ANA -1 0.388 0.459 X 1.94 0.53 0.52
CHN 5 0.627 0.541 X 1.52 0.84 0.42

Lineup (L) is based on each team’s last lineup since current ones aren’t published yet.  Lineups are from today.

Expected Values are not provided as another iteration of the simulations is forthcoming.  The Lineup (L) , Starter (S) , and Relief (R) columns show how much above or below  league averages each team is based on current roster value.  Both teams are above average in each category today.  The deltaWAA between these two teams is 5 – (-1)  = 6.  Vegas has the Cubs heavily favored today…

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Cam_Bedrosian_ANA 0.82 0.640 26.3 0.53
Jon_Lester_CHN 1.07 0.591 52.7 0.84

…possibly because Jon Lester is pitching.  Cam Bedrosian has a fairly high WinPct but has only pitched half the innings as Jon Lester.  Tiering is done on raw WAA.  Rates like WinPct are provided to show context.

Edit 6/4/2019: Apparently the Angels employed a trick TBA started last season by using a reliever to pitch the first inning.  Trevor Cahill, former Cub, listed below as the 11th worst player in MLB this season so far, was the actual starter and the Cubs clobbered him.

Vegas lists starters for games which bettors use to make a determination.  If a starter is a reliever this screws up the entire process.  Having Cahill start moves the needle way into Cubs favor.  This data model does not have the logic to predict that because most times  players listed as relief pitch a normal start.  End of Edit

ANA Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 1.16 Felix_Pena_ANA 50.0
XXXXX 1.01 Griffin_Canning_ANA 32.3
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Heaney_ANA 11.0
XXXXX -0.13 Tyler_Skaggs_ANA 54.0
-011- -3.13 Trevor_Cahill_ANA 53.3
Total -1.01 0.477

Hello Trevor Cahill and Felix Pena!  Cahill not having a good year so far as a starter.  Bedrosian is listed as a reliever on their roster.

ANA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+042+ 2.16 Ty_Buttrey_ANA 29.3
XXXXX 0.82 Cam_Bedrosian_ANA 26.3
XXXXX 0.59 Luis_Garcia_ANA 20.0
XXXXX 0.19 Hansel_Robles_ANA 26.3
XXXXX 0.02 Noe_Ramirez_ANA 26.7
XXXXX -0.15 Cody_Allen_ANA 19.0
XXXXX -0.29 Justin_Anderson_ANA 19.7
XXXXX -0.71 Jake_Jewell_ANA 7.3
Total 2.63 0.568

Eight relievers and Bedrosian can’t come in to relieve because he’s starting.  Still, this relief staff is much better than their PITCH number in team status based off of seasonal run scored against would suggest.

ANA Lineup 06-03-2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.23 David_Fletcher_ANA 3B-2B-LF-SS 219
+038+ 2.18 Mike_Trout_ANA CF 246
XXXXX 0.82 Albert_Pujols_ANA 1B-DH 204
+073+ 1.81 Tommy_La_Stella_ANA 2B-3B 206
XXXXX 0.61 Cesar_Puello_ANA BAT 22
XXXXX 0.42 Jonathan_Lucroy_ANA CR 182
+104+ 1.51 Kole_Calhoun_ANA RF 231
XXXXX -0.17 Taylor_Ward_ANA BAT 7
XXXXX 0.00 Cam_Bedrosian_ANA none 0
Total 7.41 0.608

This is an above average lineup according to league averages based upon roster value.  Tommy La_Stella having a career season so far and Mike Trout chugging to the top of the league once again.  Let’s look at May trajectories of these two players according to this data model.

Tommy_La_Stella_ANA 2B

2019 Rank WAA
0501 +051+ 1.26
0505 XXXXX 1.24
0509 XXXXX 1.20
0513 +053+ 1.60
0517 +040+ 1.85
0521 +059+ 1.68
0525 +050+ 1.89
0529 +061+ 1.85
0603 +073+ 1.81

La_Stella started the month WAA = +1.26 and ended it at +1.81 gaining around 0.55 which is a pretty good rate for a six month season.  In April he gained +1.26 however.  There still is four months left to this season.   Players must keep up with other players or lose rank.

Mike_Trout_ANA CF

2019 Rank WAA
0501 XXXXX 0.76
0505 XXXXX 0.99
0509 XXXXX 0.71
0513 +075+ 1.39
0517 +101+ 1.26
0521 +093+ 1.39
0525 +114+ 1.36
0529 +111+ 1.39
0603 +038+ 2.18

The above shows Mike Trout being the cream rising to the top.  WAR had Mike Trout in their top 5 from the beginning of April. Trout  had a significant increase during the month of May.

This model does not give favorites bonus points for being who they are.   Team status above shows a significant increase in BAT which is based upon runs scored.  The above table shows Mike Trout was a big contributor to that increase.   He certainly can rise to the very  top of this model as he has done in past years.  Ranked #38 is very very good.  If he rises to #2 in this model like he has been with WAR all season the Angels as a team will rise as well.  In order for a player to be awarded wins/WAA their team has to win.  We’ll see.

That is all for now.  Playoff horse race next and a simulation reboot to improve the quality of  tier distributions used in simulation.  Until then ….