Cubs Rockies Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Rockies tonight and it’s raining right now.  Let’s look at this Rockies team.

COL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
COL 16 19 6.3 -20.8 6.9 20190507
COL 31 27 40.0 -35.0 9.2 20190604

Coloroado went 15-8 these last four weeks gaining 7 games so they’re playing well right now.   Their PITCH tanked but BAT soared.  UR also improved and is one of the best in MLB right now.

COL CHN 06_04_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
COL 4 0.345 0.441 X 0.96 -1.68 0.11
CHN 6 0.677 0.559 X 1.24 2.27 0.36

Vegas has the Cubs heavily favored tonight.  TC Sim has the Cubs favored but not as much.  The simulations are up for an iteration so no recommendation can be made and EV is blanked.  Lineups are from each team’s last game played and according to L, S, and R the Cubs are ahead in each category.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jeff_Hoffman_COL -0.99 0.204 15.0 -1.68
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.25 0.644 70.0 2.27

Hendricks has been climbing in the ranks and now has a >2 tier number which means he’s more than one standard deviation above his peers currently on a roster.  Hoffman is on the other side of the bell curve with a tier number -1.69.

COL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+077+ 1.76 German_Marquez_COL 85.3
XXXXX 0.44 Jon_Gray_COL 72.3
XXXXX -0.99 Jeff_Hoffman_COL 15.0
XXXXX -1.22 Antonio_Senzatela_COL 54.0
Total -0.01 0.500

These are the starters listed on their roster.  Looking at IP which represents time played it appears there is churn in Colorado’s starting rotation.  Hoffman who pitches tonight has only seen 15 innings.

COL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+089+ 1.64 Scott_Oberg_COL 26.3
XXXXX 0.63 Bryan_Shaw_COL 35.0
XXXXX 0.59 Jake_McGee_COL 5.7
XXXXX 0.32 Jairo_Diaz_COL 7.3
XXXXX 0.06 Carlos_Estevez_COL 27.3
XXXXX -0.04 Chad_Bettis_COL 34.7
XXXXX -0.34 Mike_Dunn_COL 17.3
XXXXX -0.82 Chris_Rusin_COL 0.3
-030- -2.12 Seung-hwan_Oh_COL 18.3
Total -0.08 0.498

Lots of relievers all adding to a cumulative WAA= ~0 which is completely average.  The average MLB relief staff according to current rosters is WAA=1.87.  COL is listed in the R column of their game record above with a tier number of 0.11 which is slightly above current league average.

Right now computing tiers for relief cuts off at 8 relievers max.  Since COL have 9 listed on their roster Seung-hwan Oh didn’t count which raises their relief cumulative by his negative value of -2.12.   Relief valuation is an issue that will be explored in the next iteration.   The cut off for relief will be raised to either 5 or 6 because sometimes high negative pitchers get thrown into relief even though they’ll be used as mop up and not critical game situations.

As we saw recently with SLN, high negative value pitchers can drag down a very good relief staff into mediocre territory which is an incorrect valuation.  This will be explained more at the release of the next simulation update.

It should be noted that with a relief and set of starters almost completely average differs from what one would expect from PITCH in their team status derived form runs scored against.  This is to be expected — especially for playoff caliber teams like COL because they will make changes to stay competitive. A pitching staff like this probably won’t get COL far into the playoffs so if they’re buying at the trade deadline expect them to pick up pitchers of either type because they need both.

COL Lineup 06022019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.32 Raimel_Tapia_COL LF 180
XXXXX 0.19 David_Dahl_COL LF-CF-RF 193
+005+ 3.80 Nolan_Arenado_COL 3B 252
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Murphy_COL 1B 125
XXXXX 0.92 Ryan_McMahon_COL 2B-1B 151
XXXXX 0.17 Brendan_Rodgers_COL BAT 40
XXXXX -0.13 Chris_Iannetta_COL CR 74
XXXXX -0.76 Garrett_Hampson_COL 2B 99
XXXXX -0.44 Antonio_Senzatela_COL BAT 18
Total 4.99 0.585

COL Lineups range from +9 to +5 so the above is one of their weakest.   Nolan Arenado having yet another stellar year at the plate.  This model has him ranked #5 and WAR has him at #8 so both systems in agreement.

That’s all for now.  Until then ….