Cubs play the Cardinals again at home after losing to them in St. Louis a week ago. Let’s see what the Cardinals have been up to during these last seven days.
SLN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 27 | 28 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 20190531 |
| SLN | 31 | 29 | -7.2 | 19.7 | 3.4 | 20190607 |
BAT about the same, PITCH has improved significantly and the Cardinals went 4-1 gaining 3 games. Let’s look at game records for today.
Correction 6/9/2019: Missed the minus in the above BAT number for 6/7/2019. Thus, in the last week the Cardinals’ BAT tanked almost as much as their PITCH gained.
SLN CHN 06_07_2:20_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 2 | 0.469 | 0.448 | X | -0.41 | -0.16 | 2.58 |
| CHN | 7 | 0.552 | 0.552 | X | 1.40 | 1.06 | -0.15 |
Vegas and Tier Combo simulation exactly in agreement today. L, S, and R represent Lineup, Starter, and Relief tier numbers. A tier number of 2 or -2 is either one standard deviation above or below current league average for that category.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 0.29 | 0.519 | 69.3 | -0.16 |
| Cole_Hamels_CHN | 1.32 | 0.585 | 69.7 | 1.06 |
Mikolas has been climbing out of a hole he dug earlier in the season and could be on track to match his numbers from last season. Hamels, at tier 1 , is 1/2 standard deviation above league average for starting pitching.
SLN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +132+ | 1.34 | Dakota_Hudson_SLN | 65.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 64.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Adam_Wainwright_SLN | 66.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 69.3 | |
| Total | 3.19 | 0.554 |
The starting rotation has improved since last week which matches what we see with PITCH in team status for the Cardinals.
SLN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +030+ | 2.65 | John_Gant_SLN | 32.7 | |
| +086+ | 1.72 | John_Brebbia_SLN | 30.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.46 | Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN | 24.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Jordan_Hicks_SLN | 21.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.32 | Andrew_Miller_SLN | 20.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Ryan_Helsley_SLN | 8.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.15 | Tyler_Webb_SLN | 19.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.13 | Carlos_Martinez_SLN | 7.0 | |
| -039- | -2.02 | Michael_Wacha_SLN | 50.0 | |
| Total | 4.02 | 0.585 |
Their relief staff has improved as well.
SLN Lineup 6/7/2019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -1.11 | Dexter_Fowler_SLN | RF-CF | 190 |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 254 |
| XXXXX | -0.04 | Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN | 1B | 257 |
| +017+ | 3.40 | Marcell_Ozuna_SLN | LF | 242 |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | Jedd_Gyorko_SLN | 3B | 60 |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Harrison_Bader_SLN | CF | 142 |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Matt_Wieters_SLN | CR | 46 |
| XXXXX | -0.57 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 221 |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | PR | 23 |
| Total | 1.25 | 0.517 |
Pretty average lineup which matches their BAT in team status. As a season progresses seasonal data like run differential will diverge from actual roster data. Right now BAT and PITCH are tracking closely with Cardinals’ roster. When trading season begins this could change and SLN is still in the hunt.
It should be noted that WAR has Dexter Fowler ranked #112 and Marcell Ozuna ranked #126 which differs significantly from this data model. If you were a baseball GM and could choose either of these players, which one would you choose? A value system must itself be evaluated as to how it chooses who is better.
Not much more to say about SLN since we covered them a week ago. Still working on next simulation iteration to fix some problems and hopefully up % gain on Vegas. More on that later. Until then ….