Cubs Cardinals Matchup … Again

Cubs play the Cardinals again at home after losing to them in St. Louis a week ago.  Let’s see what the Cardinals have been up to during these last seven days.

SLN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 27 28 7.0 2.8 1.6 20190531
SLN 31 29 -7.2 19.7 3.4 20190607

BAT about the same, PITCH has improved significantly and the Cardinals went 4-1 gaining 3 games.  Let’s look at game records for today.

Correction 6/9/2019:  Missed the minus in the above  BAT number for 6/7/2019.   Thus, in the last week the Cardinals’ BAT tanked almost as much as their PITCH gained.

SLN CHN 06_07_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 2 0.469 0.448 X -0.41 -0.16 2.58
CHN 7 0.552 0.552 X 1.40 1.06 -0.15

Vegas and Tier Combo simulation exactly in agreement today.  L, S, and R represent Lineup, Starter, and Relief tier numbers.  A tier number of 2 or -2 is either one standard deviation above or below current league average for that category.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Miles_Mikolas_SLN 0.29 0.519 69.3 -0.16
Cole_Hamels_CHN 1.32 0.585 69.7 1.06

Mikolas has been climbing out of a hole he dug earlier in the season and could be on track to match his numbers from last season.  Hamels, at tier 1 , is 1/2 standard deviation above league average for starting pitching.

SLN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+132+ 1.34 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 65.7
XXXXX 1.24 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 64.7
XXXXX 0.36 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 66.3
XXXXX 0.25 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 69.3
Total 3.19 0.554

The starting rotation has improved since last week which matches what we see with PITCH in team status for the Cardinals.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+030+ 2.65 John_Gant_SLN 32.7
+086+ 1.72 John_Brebbia_SLN 30.0
XXXXX 0.46 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 24.0
XXXXX 0.38 Jordan_Hicks_SLN 21.3
XXXXX 0.32 Andrew_Miller_SLN 20.7
XXXXX 0.23 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 8.0
XXXXX 0.15 Tyler_Webb_SLN 19.0
XXXXX 0.13 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 7.0
-039- -2.02 Michael_Wacha_SLN 50.0
Total 4.02 0.585

Their relief staff has improved as well.

SLN Lineup 6/7/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.11 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 190
XXXXX 0.36 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 254
XXXXX -0.04 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 257
+017+ 3.40 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 242
XXXXX -0.27 Jedd_Gyorko_SLN 3B 60
XXXXX -0.48 Harrison_Bader_SLN CF 142
XXXXX 0.36 Matt_Wieters_SLN CR 46
XXXXX -0.57 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 221
XXXXX -0.40 Miles_Mikolas_SLN PR 23
Total 1.25 0.517

Pretty average lineup which matches their BAT in team status.  As a season progresses seasonal data like run differential will diverge from actual roster data.  Right now BAT and PITCH are tracking closely with Cardinals’ roster.  When trading season begins this could change and SLN is still in the hunt.

It should be noted that WAR has Dexter Fowler ranked #112 and Marcell Ozuna ranked #126 which differs significantly from this data model.  If you were a baseball GM and could choose either of these players, which one would you choose?   A value system must itself be evaluated as to how it chooses who is better.

Not much more to say about SLN since we covered them a week ago.  Still working on next simulation iteration to fix some problems and hopefully up % gain on Vegas.  More on that later.  Until then ….