Cubs Rockies Matchup … Again

Cubs played the Rockies at Wrigley a week ago and now they’re in Colorado.  Yesterday was the first game of this series and Cubs lost.  Let’s do a dump of this matchup with some commentary in between.

COL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
COL 31 27 40.0 -35.0 9.2 20190604
COL 34 31 38.3 -39.4 11.5 20190611

Rockies went 3-4 this last week losing a game.  PITCH and BAT down a little and UR up again.  Unfortunately for COL the Dodgers are running away with the NL West so far this season.  COL is in the hunt for a Wild Card.

CHN COL 06_11_8:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 0.558 0.496 X 1.18 0.66 -0.27
COL 3 0.463 0.504 X 3.00 0.02 1.82

Vegas favors Cubs more than TC Simulation.  COL has a maxed out lineup ( which will be fixed in next simulation iteration ) and a decent relief staff.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Quintana_CHN 1.07 0.565 74.0 0.66
Peter_Lambert_COL 0.50 NA 7.0 0.02

Lambert is a new guy so this game would be a discard no matter what the simulation says.  Pitchers need a certain amount of innings to make a more accurate determination if they can pitch in MLB.  All new players start out at WAA=0 which is completely average.  Not all new guys are completely average though because they haven’t proven themselves yet.   This is only a problem with the Starter (S) category because it relies on the value of a single player.  Lineups and Relief are groups of players so a single anomaly like a new guy won’t affect the group value much.

COL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.50 Peter_Lambert_COL 7.0
XXXXX 0.40 German_Marquez_COL 96.7
XXXXX 0.19 Jon_Gray_COL 78.0
XXXXX -0.82 Antonio_Senzatela_COL 60.0
-033- -2.21 Jeff_Hoffman_COL 25.7
Total -1.94 0.467

Their Starting rotation is below average which reflects their PITCH in team status.

COL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+094+ 1.72 Scott_Oberg_COL 29.3
XXXXX 0.86 Wade_Davis_COL 16.7
XXXXX 0.63 Jairo_Diaz_COL 10.3
XXXXX 0.63 Bryan_Shaw_COL 37.0
XXXXX 0.57 Jake_McGee_COL 7.7
XXXXX 0.21 Chad_Bettis_COL 37.0
XXXXX 0.19 Carlos_Estevez_COL 30.7
XXXXX 0 Phil_Diehl 0
Total 4.81 0.628

Their relief staff above average which probably means COL is churning it. Tiering is done based upon Total WAA=4.81 and not WinPct=0.628.  According to game records above COL has a Tier number of 1.82 which is almost a complete standard deviation above league average.  This is pretty good considering their terrible PITCH based upon seasonal runs scored against.

COL Lineup 6/10/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+091+ 1.51 Charlie_Blackmon_COL RF 228
+020+ 3.32 Trevor_Story_COL SS 285
XXXXX 1.01 David_Dahl_COL LF-RF-CF 223
+009+ 3.74 Nolan_Arenado_COL 3B 281
XXXXX 1.18 Daniel_Murphy_COL 1B 149
XXXXX -0.04 Raimel_Tapia_COL LF 206
XXXXX 0.73 Ryan_McMahon_COL 2B-1B 167
XXXXX 0.08 Tony_Wolters_COL CR 155
XXXXX 0.38 German_Marquez_COL PR 31
Total 11.91 0.633

COL fielded this lineup yesterday and it’s  powerful and top of MLB right now.

Not much more to say about this series.  Reports like this will soon be automated for every team every game.  Until then ….