Cubs Dodgers Matchup - Baseball Analytics

Cubs play the first place Dodgers tonight very late. < anti jinx on > This series could be a precursor to the NLCS this year. </ anti jinx >

LAN Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR
LAN	29	16	41.5	20.4	-6.5	20190516
LAN	43	20	51.9	52.4	-2.9	20190606
LAN	45	23	38.6	67.2	-2.8	20190613

In the last month the Dodgers went 16-7 gaining 9 games which is a tremendous run. Both BAT and PITCH way above average and UR has improved as well. This is a team running away with the AL West and according to the last Playoff Horse Race post, they were almost tied for the best in MLB Total WAA according to this data model. Let’s see how that breaks down below.

CHN LAN 06_13_10:10_PM

	WAA	Vegas	TC Sim	EV	L	S	R
CHN	9	0.392	0.413	X	0.84	0.85	-0.74
LAN	22	0.630	0.587	X	2.67	1.70	0.39

TC Sim and Vegas pretty much agree on this game. Tier numbers in Lineups, Starter, and Relief columns all show LAN well ahead of CHN. The only stat that matters in baseball, team WAA in the first column shows LAN way ahead of CHN as well.

Starters	WAA	WinPct	IP	Tier
Jon_Lester_CHN	1.28	0.588	65.7	0.85
Clayton_Kershaw_LAN	2.04	0.639	66.0	1.70

Cubs ace against Dodgers ace. Not much more to say about this.

LAN Starters

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
+001+	6.05	Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN	86.0
+063+	2.12	Clayton_Kershaw_LAN	66.0
+067+	2.08	Rich_Hill_LAN	45.0
+090+	1.81	Walker_Buehler_LAN	75.3
XXXXX	0.80	Kenta_Maeda_LAN	71.7
Total	12.86	0.668

These are the starters Cubs may have to deal with these next few days. This is a best in MLB starting rotation according the last snapshot of the Playoff Horse Race . It is currently tied with Houston for best in MLB.

LAN Relief

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	IP
XXXXX	1.20	Ross_Stripling_LAN	46.7
XXXXX	0.88	Pedro_Baez_LAN	29.3
XXXXX	0.86	Julio_Urias_LAN	37.3
XXXXX	0.84	Kenley_Jansen_LAN	26.7
XXXXX	0.67	Dylan_Floro_LAN	23.0
XXXXX	0.00	Yimi_Garcia_LAN	24.7
XXXXX	-0.44	Caleb_Ferguson_LAN	18.3
-073-	-1.60	Joe_Kelly_LAN	21.3
Total	2.41	0.548

Current league average for relief is 1.77 per team so this staff is slightly above league average. Relief can become problems for teams in playoff season. Cubs relief is below league average right now with a tier number of -0.74 which is displayed above in the game table.

Currently TC Sim evaluates a relief staff on the top 8 relievers. This will be changed in the next iteration of the simulator. I’m debating between top 5 or 6 but need to look at the historical data first to make a determination. The next simulation post will cover how relief was used historically and how this determination will be made.

Joe Kelly above is currently dragging down the value of this relief staff. Joe Kelly’s career year was with the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals which was covered in our minor league reboot series.

LAN Lineup 06112019

Rank	WAA	Name_TeamID	Pos	PA
+038+	2.71	Joc_Pederson_LAN	LF	212
+070+	1.83	Max_Muncy_LAN	1B-2B-3B	257
XXXXX	0.13	Justin_Turner_LAN	3B	245
+009+	4.30	Cody_Bellinger_LAN	RF-1B	276
+115+	1.72	Corey_Seager_LAN	SS	265
XXXXX	0.08	Alex_Verdugo_LAN	CF-RF	199
XXXXX	-0.27	Chris_Taylor_LAN	LF-2B-SS	188
XXXXX	0.53	Enrique_Hernandez_LAN	2B	233
XXXXX	-0.17	Austin_Barnes_LAN	CR	145
Total	10.86	0.603

Have to go back two days to get Dodgers’ last lineup. This is almost a maxed out tier 3 lineup like the Cubs faced with Colorado. WAR has Cody Bellinger #1 in MLB and we have him #9 so in the same ballpark.

Edit: Just noticed no pitchers listed above. Apparently LAN played against ANA with a DH that game — soon to come to NL in 2022. Kershaw’s terrible hitting won’t drag the above down that much.

These reports assume we know the status of the Cubs’ roster. That hasn’t been done here in two weeks so a Cubs status report will publish tomorrow. Until then ….