Cubs Status 6/14/2019

It has been 2 weeks since we last did a Cubs Status post.  Let’s look at the current Cubs team using the current prototype template for team status.  This template is a work in progress.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 31 23 25.5 29.9 -4.4 20190531
CHN 38 30 35.3 31.2 -2.7 20190614

The above shows team status lines for today and 2 weeks ago.  Cubs went 7-7 , even steven even though  BAT, PITCH and UR all improved a little.

CHN Tier Data

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 2.33
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -1.73
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 2.52
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.42
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.03
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.42
Relief -0.68

The above shows tier values for each category.  Lineups and Relief are groups of players, Starters (SP) uses an individual value.  Since the Cubs start late again tonight, the CHN lineup value is from yesterday.

A tier value of +2 means one complete standard deviation above the league average according to current rosters for all 30 MLB teams.  Right now this model maxes out at +3 but that will be changed in the next simulation iteration.  Cubs have two very above average pitchers and Lester had a bad outing last night so he’s almost even steven with the league.

Cubs lineup is valued very above average which reflects their BAT in team status.  Relief is underwater which we’ll see below.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+034+ 2.77 Cole_Hamels_CHN 84.7
+035+ 2.69 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 84.0
XXXXX 0.90 Jose_Quintana_CHN 78.7
XXXXX 0.50 Jon_Lester_CHN 70.7
XXXXX -1.01 Yu_Darvish_CHN 72.3
Total 5.85 0.567

Starters a evaluated in simulation as a single entity.  Lester had a bad outing and Darvish still has potential.  This model only shows the past and not the future so ifs and ands don’t count.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+146+ 1.34 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 29.7
XXXXX 0.76 Steve_Cishek_CHN 28.0
XXXXX 0.63 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 35.0
XXXXX 0.00 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 22.7
XXXXX -0.15 Pedro_Strop_CHN 13.0
XXXXX -0.29 Mike_Montgomery_CHN 15.7
XXXXX -0.36 Carl_Edwards_CHN 15.0
-117- -1.30 Brad_Brach_CHN 26.3
Total 0.63 0.515

In past years CHN relief has been very strong.  In 2017 the relief staff kept the Cubs in contention until All Star Break.  The above is underwater according to current league roster.  Brad Brach would be counted in the new iteration based upon he is still frequently used.  He was an off season acquisition to shore up relief.

The above however is the past and everything either goes up, down, or stays the same.  Corey Kluber will be on the team at the end of June so hopefully he helps

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+053+ 2.35 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 285
+055+ 2.31 Javier_Baez_CHN 287
+061+ 2.23 Kris_Bryant_CHN 286
+135+ 1.41 Willson_Contreras_CHN 230
+152+ 1.30 David_Bote_CHN 196
XXXXX 0.69 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN 263
XXXXX 0.48 Victor_Caratini_CHN 61
XXXXX -0.17 Jason_Heyward_CHN 255
XXXXX -0.25 Albert_Almora_CHN 208
XXXXX -0.25 Addison_Russell_CHN 90
XXXXX -0.67 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 158
XXXXX -0.80 Carlos_Gonzalez_CHN 146
Total 8.63 0.564

Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant all racing to the top of the league.  WAR is in agreement with this model for Rizzo and Bryant but has Baez ranked #12 which is good for his MVP chances.

WAR had a defensive component, dWAR, which gives Baez a very high value of 1.2 that caused his value to go higher than this model.     Based upon personal anecdotal observations of Baez,  WAR could be correct and his defense might propel him into the top #25 somewhere from his current rank of #55.

Defensive value require counting runs that should have scored that didn’t and runs that did score that shouldn’t have.  If we could count this accurately  that could be added to this model.   MLB can barely assign errors correctly — which this model does keep track of.   Great plays you see on ESPN highlights are very rare.  Other methods like UZR kind of work showing who is very good defensively and who is very bad but it’s too error prone for the muddy middle where the vast majority of baseball players lie.

If you don’t know something you can’t count it.

That’s all for now.  In a couple of weeks our annual All Star picks and perhaps a mid season minor league snapshot.