It has been 2 weeks since we last did a Cubs Status post. Let’s look at the current Cubs team using the current prototype template for team status. This template is a work in progress.
CHN Team Status
The above shows team status lines for today and 2 weeks ago. Cubs went 7-7 , even steven even though BAT, PITCH and UR all improved a little.
CHN Tier Data
The above shows tier values for each category. Lineups and Relief are groups of players, Starters (SP) uses an individual value. Since the Cubs start late again tonight, the CHN lineup value is from yesterday.
A tier value of +2 means one complete standard deviation above the league average according to current rosters for all 30 MLB teams. Right now this model maxes out at +3 but that will be changed in the next simulation iteration. Cubs have two very above average pitchers and Lester had a bad outing last night so he’s almost even steven with the league.
Cubs lineup is valued very above average which reflects their BAT in team status. Relief is underwater which we’ll see below.
Starters a evaluated in simulation as a single entity. Lester had a bad outing and Darvish still has potential. This model only shows the past and not the future so ifs and ands don’t count.
In past years CHN relief has been very strong. In 2017 the relief staff kept the Cubs in contention until All Star Break. The above is underwater according to current league roster. Brad Brach would be counted in the new iteration based upon he is still frequently used. He was an off season acquisition to shore up relief.
The above however is the past and everything either goes up, down, or stays the same. Corey Kluber will be on the team at the end of June so hopefully he helps
Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant all racing to the top of the league. WAR is in agreement with this model for Rizzo and Bryant but has Baez ranked #12 which is good for his MVP chances.
WAR had a defensive component, dWAR, which gives Baez a very high value of 1.2 that caused his value to go higher than this model. Based upon personal anecdotal observations of Baez, WAR could be correct and his defense might propel him into the top #25 somewhere from his current rank of #55.
Defensive value require counting runs that should have scored that didn’t and runs that did score that shouldn’t have. If we could count this accurately that could be added to this model. MLB can barely assign errors correctly — which this model does keep track of. Great plays you see on ESPN highlights are very rare. Other methods like UZR kind of work showing who is very good defensively and who is very bad but it’s too error prone for the muddy middle where the vast majority of baseball players lie.
If you don’t know something you can’t count it.
That’s all for now. In a couple of weeks our annual All Star picks and perhaps a mid season minor league snapshot.