Cubs play the Mets tonight at Wrigley. Let’s take a look at the current Mets team.
NYN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYN | 23 | 25 | -7.0 | -5.1 | -4.2 | 20190523 |
| NYN | 35 | 39 | 0.5 | -21.9 | -2.7 | 20190620 |
Mets went went 12-14 losing 2 games in the last 4 weeks and now they’re 4 under for the season so far. They’re pitching tanked and BAT improved somewhat during that period.
NYN CHN 06_20_8:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYN | -4 | 0.417 | 0.439 | 105 | -0.36 | -0.71 | -0.90 |
| CHN | 7 | 0.600 | 0.561 | 93 | 0.78 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
TC Simulation pretty much agrees with Vegas who have the Cubs a 60% favorite so this game would be a discard.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker_Lockett_NYN | 0.00 | NA | NONE | -0.71 |
| Tyler_Chatwood_CHN | 0.69 | 0.589 | 35.0 | 0.08 |
It looks like something happened to Hendricks because he’s missing from the roster we got today and Chatwood is pitching. Lockett is a new guy pitching for the Mets which would automatically make this game a discard. New guys start at WAA=0 which right now is below league average for starters.
NYN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +058+ | 2.42 | Jacob_deGrom_NYN | 91.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.86 | Jason_Vargas_NYN | 55.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Steven_Matz_NYN | 73.7 | |
| XXXXX | -1.20 | Zack_Wheeler_NYN | 94.7 | |
| Total | 2.31 | 0.533 |
Above is the Mets’ starting rotation according to their roster. Lockett is missing above but our source for rosters can lag a day or two. Other than Zack Wheeler their rotation is better than PITCH in team status would indicate. Let’s look at Mets’ relief.
NYN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +120+ | 1.64 | Seth_Lugo_NYN | 34.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Edwin_Diaz_NYN | 28.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.13 | Brooks_Pounders_NYN | 1.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.19 | Daniel_Zamora_NYN | 6.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Stephen_Nogosek_NYN | 0.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.38 | Robert_Gsellman_NYN | 39.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Wilmer_Font_NYN | 34.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.78 | Chris_Flexen_NYN | 8.7 | |
| Total | 0.00 | 0.500 |
At WAA=0 the above is exactly average from a seasonal perspective. The current league average for relief is now 1.88 per team. As a season progresses bad players get replaced by new guys causing averages to rise. This means NYN has a below average relief staff with a tier number of -0.90 which is around 0.45 standard deviation below the mean. Not completely terrible but still a weakness for the Mets.
NYN Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.92 | Jeff_McNeil_NYN | LF-2B-3B | 249 |
| +030+ | 3.13 | Pete_Alonso_NYN | 1B | 305 |
| -109- | -1.43 | Robinson_Cano_NYN | 2B | 198 |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Michael_Conforto_NYN | RF | 283 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Todd_Frazier_NYN | 3B | 183 |
| +149+ | 1.41 | Wilson_Ramos_NYN | CR | 236 |
| XXXXX | -0.50 | Amed_Rosario_NYN | SS | 295 |
| XXXXX | -0.15 | Carlos_Gomez_NYN | CF-LF | 89 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Walker_Lockett_NYN | none | 0 |
| Total | 2.38 | 0.525 |
Although this lineup is above average from a seasonal standpoint, it’s slightly below average according to current league averages.
That is all for this matchup. There’s a new way All Star players are being picked with some deadline tomorrow. Apparently there’s some primary runoff to narrow down players for the final vote. It doesn’t matter. This model’s All Star picks will be shown at end of June and compared with voter selection like has been done in past seasons. Until then ….