Cubs Mets Matchup

Cubs play the Mets tonight at Wrigley.  Let’s take a look at the current Mets team.

NYN Team Status

NYN 23 25 -7.0 -5.1 -4.2 20190523
NYN 35 39 0.5 -21.9 -2.7 20190620

Mets went went 12-14 losing 2 games in the last 4 weeks and now they’re 4 under for the season so far.  They’re pitching tanked and BAT improved somewhat during that period.

NYN CHN 06_20_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYN -4 0.417 0.439 105 -0.36 -0.71 -0.90
CHN 7 0.600 0.561 93 0.78 0.08 0.22

TC Simulation pretty much agrees with Vegas who have the Cubs a 60% favorite so this game would be a discard.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Walker_Lockett_NYN 0.00 NA NONE -0.71
Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 0.69 0.589 35.0 0.08

It looks like something happened to Hendricks because he’s missing from the roster we got today and Chatwood is pitching.  Lockett is a new guy pitching for the Mets which would automatically make this game a discard.  New guys start at WAA=0 which right now is below league average for starters.

NYN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+058+ 2.42 Jacob_deGrom_NYN 91.0
XXXXX 0.86 Jason_Vargas_NYN 55.3
XXXXX 0.23 Steven_Matz_NYN 73.7
XXXXX -1.20 Zack_Wheeler_NYN 94.7
Total 2.31 0.533

Above is the Mets’ starting rotation according to their roster.  Lockett is missing above but our source for rosters can lag a day or two.  Other than Zack Wheeler their rotation is better than PITCH in team status would indicate.   Let’s look at Mets’ relief.

NYN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+120+ 1.64 Seth_Lugo_NYN 34.3
XXXXX 0.42 Edwin_Diaz_NYN 28.7
XXXXX 0.13 Brooks_Pounders_NYN 1.3
XXXXX -0.19 Daniel_Zamora_NYN 6.3
XXXXX -0.36 Stephen_Nogosek_NYN 0.7
XXXXX -0.38 Robert_Gsellman_NYN 39.3
XXXXX -0.48 Wilmer_Font_NYN 34.3
XXXXX -0.78 Chris_Flexen_NYN 8.7
Total 0.00 0.500

At WAA=0 the above is exactly average from a seasonal perspective.  The current league average for relief is now 1.88 per team.  As a season progresses bad players get replaced by new guys causing averages to rise.  This means NYN has a below average relief staff with a tier number of -0.90 which is around 0.45 standard deviation below the mean.  Not completely terrible but still a weakness for the Mets.

NYN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.92 Jeff_McNeil_NYN LF-2B-3B 249
+030+ 3.13 Pete_Alonso_NYN 1B 305
-109- -1.43 Robinson_Cano_NYN 2B 198
XXXXX 0.84 Michael_Conforto_NYN RF 283
XXXXX 0.00 Todd_Frazier_NYN 3B 183
+149+ 1.41 Wilson_Ramos_NYN CR 236
XXXXX -0.50 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 295
XXXXX -0.15 Carlos_Gomez_NYN CF-LF 89
XXXXX 0.00 Walker_Lockett_NYN none 0
Total 2.38 0.525

Although this lineup is above average from a seasonal standpoint, it’s slightly below average according to current league averages.

That is all for this matchup.  There’s a new way All Star players are being picked with some deadline tomorrow.  Apparently there’s some primary runoff to narrow down players for the final vote.  It doesn’t matter.  This model’s All Star picks will be shown at end of June and compared with voter selection like has been done in past seasons.  Until then ….