Cubs Braves Matchup

Cubs start a four game series with the Braves today.  Let’s look at this Atlanta team the Cubs face.

ATL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ATL 30 24 20.1 5.3 -8.3 20190527
ATL 46 32 56.5 12.3 -19.4 20190624

In the last 4 weeks ATL went 16-8 gaining 8 games to make them +14 for the season so far.  Based upon the above BAT improved a lot and PITCH improved somewhat.  Unearned Runs above average (UR) took a steep hit yet that didn’t prevent Atlanta from going on a tremendous run putting them first in the NL East.   It will be interesting to see how many runs they give to the Cubs this week.

ATL CHN 06_24_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 14 0.450 0.571 X 3.00 1.58 0.86
CHN 7 0.569 0.429 X 1.14 0.03 0.08

Vegas has the Cubs favored, TC Sim has ATL favored today.  The L, S, and R columns as well as real team WAA (first column), the only stat in baseball that counts, all favor ATL.  Lineups are from yesterday for both teams.  The Cubs usually field a +2 tier number lineup and Lester below took a big hit his last game.  This would narrow the difference somewhat but nowhere near where Vegas has this game right now.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Julio_Teheran_ATL 1.99 0.603 87.3 1.58
Jon_Lester_CHN 0.61 0.536 76.3 0.03

This model can only count past results and Lester has had his ups and downs this season.   Lester has a better career but Teheran has pitched better this season so far.  WAR has Teheran ranked #87, top 100, and Lester unranked.

ATL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+012+ 4.22 Mike_Soroka_ATL 78.3
+090+ 1.99 Julio_Teheran_ATL 87.3
XXXXX 0.69 Max_Fried_ATL 82.7
XXXXX -0.13 Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 5.0
-022- -2.75 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 59.3
Total 4.02 0.558

The above is ATL’s starting rotation which isn’t bad.  Soroka pitched yesterday based upon their lineup yesterday so the Cubs probably won’t face him this series.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+101+ 1.93 Jacob_Webb_ATL 27.0
XXXXX 1.16 Luke_Jackson_ATL 38.0
XXXXX 1.05 Anthony_Swarzak_ATL 29.3
XXXXX 0.61 Josh_Tomlin_ATL 43.0
XXXXX 0.59 Grant_Dayton_ATL 7.7
XXXXX -0.06 Jerry_Blevins_ATL 13.7
XXXXX -0.23 Touki_Toussaint_ATL 32.7
XXXXX -1.20 [A-Z].J._Minter_ATL 17.0
Total 3.85 0.583

Relief staff not the greatest but above average with a tier number of 0.86, almost 1/2 standard deviation above current league average for relief.

ATL Lineup 06232019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+087+ 1.95 Ronald_Acuna_ATL CF-LF 349
+104+ 1.99 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 330
+017+ 4.07 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 344
XXXXX 0.63 Josh_Donaldson_ATL 3B 305
+119+ 1.81 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 312
+045+ 2.90 Austin_Riley_ATL LF 150
XXXXX 0.84 Brian_McCann_ATL CR 152
XXXXX 0.88 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 337
XXXXX 0.00 Mike_Soroka_ATL none 0
Total 15.07 0.627

This is a maxed out +3 tier number lineup.  Actually it’s 2 complete standard deviations above current league average lineup of +2.75 which would give it a +4 tier number.  This will be implemented in the next simulation iteration.  Bottom line: This is an extremely powerful lineup and possibly/likely best in MLB right now.

The lineup they field today probably will be somewhat lower than above because managers like to rest players.  There are a few differences in WAR with the above, some higher, some lower, but based upon cumulative ranking score, WAR would rate this lineup like this data model.

That is all for now.  We’re getting close to All Star picks as well as another Cubs status and perhaps another Playoff Horse Race update.  Until then ….