2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 4

It has been about 20 days since the last playoff horse race post so let’s take a look at the top 15 teams in MLB according to the only stat in baseball that matters, team wins minus losses or what this model calls team WAA.

The below table is sorted by team WAA.  Total WAA is based upon  sum of value for hitters, starters, and relief on current roster.  These numbers are related to team WAA with wins as a unit.

The numbers in the UR column have runs as a unit and represent runs above average.  This shows runs above or below league average for runs that scored due to fielding errors.  This is a measure of team fielding.  That said, here are the top 15 teams in MLB today.

2019 Playoff Horse Race 6/26/2019

TeamID WAA Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
LAN 29 28.2 9.9 15.4 2.9 -7.0
MIN 24 26.5 13.3 7.6 5.7 -2.0
NYA 23 24.8 15.6 3.0 6.1 2.0
HOU 20 21.6 5.8 10.9 4.9 12.0
ATL 14 22.9 15.5 4.9 2.5 -19.0
TBA 11 12.3 -1.4 5.8 7.9 5.0
TEX 7 11.0 6.0 7.6 -2.5 1.0
CLE 7 10.6 -1.8 5.9 6.6 -1.0
CHN 7 13.1 6.2 4.4 2.6 -3.0
BOS 7 15.4 10.3 0.5 4.6 -3.0
MIL 5 8.0 6.4 -2.7 4.3 5.0
OAK 4 11.5 7.5 0.9 3.0 8.0
PHI 3 8.5 5.6 1.3 1.6 5.0
COL 3 14.5 11.8 -0.5 3.2 12.0
SLN 2 5.3 -1.8 0.8 6.3 4.0

The main premise behind this model is:

Team WAA = Sum ( player WAA )

This means the sum of WAA counting each player based upon their time on that team equals that team’s real win/loss record (Team WAA ).   The conversion to WAA requires Pythagorean Expectation which has error.   It is very close however.

Team WAA is a seasonal stat which may or may not reflect the current roster as there will be  injuries, trades, and minor league call ups which can drastically change the current make up of a team.  The Total WAA column should match the real team WAA model and it some cases it does.

Total WAA is broken down into hitters, starters, and relief to provide some insight into the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams as they fight for a spot in the playoffs.  Of the current division leaders the Cubs look like the weakest which is also confirmed by Total WAA column compared to the rest of the division leaders.

Still very early and a baseball season is a marathon.   Major trading hasn’t begun and the Cubs will be getting a little help in the bullpen with Craig Kimbrel.  That, however, will not move the needle enough to not be in the bottom of the 6 division leaders.  More on this in next Cubs status.

The off WordPress version of this page will allow clickable drill down into any team for any category to see how the sausage is made.  A similar WAR table may also be available because it’s important to see how these two value models differ.  Cubs status and the 2019  All Star picks gala here will be coming soon.  Until then ….