Cubs Reds Matchup

Today the Cubs start a series against the Reds in Cincinnati.  Let’s lookup at how this current Reds team.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 26 30 -12.5 36.8 12.6 20190531
CIN 36 42 -47.7 76.6 13.5 20190628

Reds went 10-12 in the last 4 weeks.  Pitch excelled, BAT tanked and UR stayed around the same and still top of MLB right now.  If it wasn’t for their poor hitting they could be in contention this season.  Ironically last season around this time Reds had great hitting and lousy pitching.  Based upon BAT+PITCH+UR this team should be well above 0.500.  Unfortunately for them the MLB commissioner only cares about real wins.

CHN CIN 06_28_7:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 7 0.550 0.609 110 0.24 3.00 -0.12
CIN -6 0.472 0.391 83 -1.70 0.47 2.95

The above are game records showing what Vegas thinks of this game and what the simulations based upon this data model thinks.   TC Sim has the Cubs favored much more than Vegas which is usually due to home field irrational exuberance.  Cubs are ahead in real team WAA (first column), Lineup, and Starter.  CIN has much better relief.  Lineups are from the last game played since we don’t have current ones at the time of posting this.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Cole_Hamels_CHN 3.51 0.660 98.7 3.00
Sonny_Gray_CIN 1.03 0.561 76.0 0.47

Cole Hamels is having an exceptional year with a maxed out +3 tier number.  This will be expanded to +4 or higher in next TC sim iteration.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 4.45 Luis_Castillo_CIN 91.3
+051+ 2.58 Tanner_Roark_CIN 85.7
XXXXX 1.11 Sonny_Gray_CIN 76.0
XXXXX 0.57 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 82.7
XXXXX -0.08 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 74.7
Total 8.63 0.595

Above are their starters who are pretty good.  The aggregate of this rotation matches their PITCH in team status.  This may change drastically if Reds decide to sell at the trade deadline.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 2.33 Amir_Garrett_CIN 35.0
+152+ 1.43 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 40.3
+159+ 1.39 Jared_Hughes_CIN 34.0
XXXXX 0.84 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 29.0
XXXXX 0.71 Matt_Bowman_CIN 14.3
XXXXX 0.61 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 32.7
XXXXX 0.40 David_Hernandez_CIN 34.7
XXXXX 0.00 Zach_Duke_CIN 23.3
Total 7.71 0.643

This is a very good relief staff so far.

CIN Lineup  6/28/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.04 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 204
-044- -2.18 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 306
XXXXX -0.23 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 327
XXXXX 0.25 Yasiel_Puig_CIN RF 294
XXXXX -0.63 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 260
XXXXX 0.00 Scooter_Gennett_CIN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Phillip_Ervin_CIN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Sonny_Gray_CIN none 0
XXXXX -0.04 Curt_Casali_CIN CR 134
Total -2.87 0.464

This is a very under water lineup which reflects their dismal BAT in team status.    A couple of new guys in the lineup today.

The voting for All Star game changed drastically this season so it was kind of mess to analyze compared to previous years.  Still deciding whether or not to bother and might just do pitchers.  Until then ….