Today the Cubs start a series against the Reds in Cincinnati. Let’s lookup at how this current Reds team.
CIN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 26 | 30 | -12.5 | 36.8 | 12.6 | 20190531 |
| CIN | 36 | 42 | -47.7 | 76.6 | 13.5 | 20190628 |
Reds went 10-12 in the last 4 weeks. Pitch excelled, BAT tanked and UR stayed around the same and still top of MLB right now. If it wasn’t for their poor hitting they could be in contention this season. Ironically last season around this time Reds had great hitting and lousy pitching. Based upon BAT+PITCH+UR this team should be well above 0.500. Unfortunately for them the MLB commissioner only cares about real wins.
CHN CIN 06_28_7:10_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 7 | 0.550 | 0.609 | 110 | 0.24 | 3.00 | -0.12 |
| CIN | -6 | 0.472 | 0.391 | 83 | -1.70 | 0.47 | 2.95 |
The above are game records showing what Vegas thinks of this game and what the simulations based upon this data model thinks. TC Sim has the Cubs favored much more than Vegas which is usually due to home field irrational exuberance. Cubs are ahead in real team WAA (first column), Lineup, and Starter. CIN has much better relief. Lineups are from the last game played since we don’t have current ones at the time of posting this.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole_Hamels_CHN | 3.51 | 0.660 | 98.7 | 3.00 |
| Sonny_Gray_CIN | 1.03 | 0.561 | 76.0 | 0.47 |
Cole Hamels is having an exceptional year with a maxed out +3 tier number. This will be expanded to +4 or higher in next TC sim iteration.
CIN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +010+ | 4.45 | Luis_Castillo_CIN | 91.3 | |
| +051+ | 2.58 | Tanner_Roark_CIN | 85.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.11 | Sonny_Gray_CIN | 76.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.57 | Tyler_Mahle_CIN | 82.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN | 74.7 | |
| Total | 8.63 | 0.595 |
Above are their starters who are pretty good. The aggregate of this rotation matches their PITCH in team status. This may change drastically if Reds decide to sell at the trade deadline.
CIN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +068+ | 2.33 | Amir_Garrett_CIN | 35.0 | |
| +152+ | 1.43 | Michael_Lorenzen_CIN | 40.3 | |
| +159+ | 1.39 | Jared_Hughes_CIN | 34.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Robert_Stephenson_CIN | 29.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Matt_Bowman_CIN | 14.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.61 | Raisel_Iglesias_CIN | 32.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | David_Hernandez_CIN | 34.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Zach_Duke_CIN | 23.3 | |
| Total | 7.71 | 0.643 |
This is a very good relief staff so far.
CIN Lineup 6/28/2019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.04 | Nick_Senzel_CIN | CF | 204 |
| -044- | -2.18 | Joey_Votto_CIN | 1B | 306 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Eugenio_Suarez_CIN | 3B | 327 |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Yasiel_Puig_CIN | RF | 294 |
| XXXXX | -0.63 | Jose_Iglesias_CIN | SS | 260 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Scooter_Gennett_CIN | none | 0 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Phillip_Ervin_CIN | none | 0 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Sonny_Gray_CIN | none | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.04 | Curt_Casali_CIN | CR | 134 |
| Total | -2.87 | 0.464 |
This is a very under water lineup which reflects their dismal BAT in team status. A couple of new guys in the lineup today.
The voting for All Star game changed drastically this season so it was kind of mess to analyze compared to previous years. Still deciding whether or not to bother and might just do pitchers. Until then ….