Cubs play the Pirates again today in Pittsburgh. Let’s look at game 2 of this series in particular and in general the state of the Pirates roster.
PIT Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 30 | -30.0 | -31.0 | -4.8 | 20190604 |
| PIT | 40 | 43 | -4.5 | -30.4 | -3.0 | 20190702 |
In the last 4 weeks Pirates went 12-13 losing a game which is almost even steven. At team WAA = -3 they’re still in contention. Cubs were -2 at All Star break in 2017 and made it to NLCS that year.
They’re BAT improved a lot during this period going from very negative to almost completely average, PITCH and UR remained about the same. Let’s look at game records for today.
CHN PIT 07_02_7:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 5 | 0.565 | 0.557 | 98 | 0.96 | 1.72 | 0.30 |
| PIT | -3 | 0.455 | 0.443 | 97 | 0.30 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
The above shows Vegas and Tier Combo simulations to be almost equal leading to EV (Expected Value) for a 100 bet to be less than 100 for each line. Clearly a discard. Team WAA, L, S, and R columns favor the Cubs today.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 2.21 | 0.612 | 88.3 | 1.72 |
| Joe_Musgrove_PIT | 0.61 | 0.530 | 90.7 | -0.01 |
Starters above favor the Cubs. Every 2 Tier # represents one standard deviation above or below league average based on current rosters. Musgrove is almost completely current league average right now.
PIT Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +159+ | 1.34 | Jordan_Lyles_PIT | 70.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.57 | Joe_Musgrove_PIT | 90.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.32 | Steven_Brault_PIT | 56.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Trevor_Williams_PIT | 71.3 | |
| -095- | -1.66 | Chris_Archer_PIT | 73.7 | |
| Total | 0.55 | 0.507 |
Although technically this is an above average rotation with a WinPct above 0.500, current league averages based upon rosters is higher than team averages based upon seasonal run differential. Tier numbers for starting rotations are not calculated because individual starters matter in a game simulation, not the starters sitting on the bench resting their arms.
PIT Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +087+ | 2.23 | Felipe_Vazquez_PIT | 35.0 | |
| +134+ | 1.70 | Francisco_Liriano_PIT | 40.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.18 | Kyle_Crick_PIT | 29.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Richard_Rodriguez_PIT | 35.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Clay_Holmes_PIT | 23.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | Michael_Feliz_PIT | 21.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | Dovydas_Neverauskas_PIT | 7.3 | |
| -024- | -2.69 | Chris_Stratton_PIT | 42.7 | |
| Total | 1.44 | 0.528 |
According to a Tier # = -0.31, this is a below average relief squad
PIT Lineup 7/1/2019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -105- | -1.99 | Adam_Frazier_PIT | 2B | 307 |
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Bryan_Reynolds_PIT | LF-RF | 223 |
| XXXXX | 0.90 | Starling_Marte_PIT | CF | 325 |
| +003+ | 4.49 | Josh_Bell_PIT | 1B | 356 |
| XXXXX | 0.55 | Corey_Dickerson_PIT | LF | 72 |
| +171+ | 0.94 | Colin_Moran_PIT | 3B | 246 |
| XXXXX | -0.94 | Jung_Ho_Kang_PIT | 3B | 137 |
| XXXXX | -0.59 | Elias_Diaz_PIT | CR | 176 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Trevor_Williams_PIT | none | 0 |
| Total | 4.07 | 0.542 |
Lineup from yesterday because current lineups haven’t been released yet. This was a slightly above current league average for lineups which one would predict based upon their around average BAT in team status.
That is all for now. Cubs status hasn’t been done in over two weeks so that report will post tomorrow. Until then ….