Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs play the Pirates again today in Pittsburgh.  Let’s look at game 2 of this series in particular and in general the state of the Pirates roster.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 28 30 -30.0 -31.0 -4.8 20190604
PIT 40 43 -4.5 -30.4 -3.0 20190702

In the last 4 weeks Pirates went 12-13 losing a game which is almost even steven.  At team WAA = -3 they’re still in contention.  Cubs were -2 at All Star break in 2017 and made it to NLCS that year.

They’re BAT improved a lot during this period going from very negative to almost completely average,  PITCH and UR remained about the same.  Let’s look at game records for today.

CHN PIT 07_02_7:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 5 0.565 0.557 98 0.96 1.72 0.30
PIT -3 0.455 0.443 97 0.30 -0.01 -0.31

The above shows Vegas and Tier Combo simulations to be almost equal leading to EV (Expected Value) for a 100 bet to be less than 100 for each line.  Clearly a discard.  Team WAA, L,  S, and R columns favor the Cubs today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.21 0.612 88.3 1.72
Joe_Musgrove_PIT 0.61 0.530 90.7 -0.01

Starters above favor the Cubs.   Every 2 Tier # represents one standard deviation above or below league average based on current rosters.  Musgrove is almost completely current league average right now.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+159+ 1.34 Jordan_Lyles_PIT 70.3
XXXXX 0.57 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 90.7
XXXXX 0.32 Steven_Brault_PIT 56.7
XXXXX -0.02 Trevor_Williams_PIT 71.3
-095- -1.66 Chris_Archer_PIT 73.7
Total 0.55 0.507

Although technically this is an above average rotation with a WinPct above 0.500, current league averages based upon rosters is higher than team averages based upon seasonal run differential.   Tier numbers for starting rotations are not calculated because individual starters matter in a game simulation, not the starters sitting on the bench resting their arms.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+087+ 2.23 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 35.0
+134+ 1.70 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 40.0
XXXXX 1.18 Kyle_Crick_PIT 29.0
XXXXX 0.42 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT 35.7
XXXXX -0.02 Clay_Holmes_PIT 23.7
XXXXX -0.69 Michael_Feliz_PIT 21.3
XXXXX -0.69 Dovydas_Neverauskas_PIT 7.3
-024- -2.69 Chris_Stratton_PIT 42.7
Total 1.44 0.528

According to a Tier #  = -0.31, this is a below average relief squad

PIT Lineup 7/1/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-105- -1.99 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 307
XXXXX 0.71 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF 223
XXXXX 0.90 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 325
+003+ 4.49 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 356
XXXXX 0.55 Corey_Dickerson_PIT LF 72
+171+ 0.94 Colin_Moran_PIT 3B 246
XXXXX -0.94 Jung_Ho_Kang_PIT 3B 137
XXXXX -0.59 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 176
XXXXX 0.00 Trevor_Williams_PIT none 0
Total 4.07 0.542

Lineup from yesterday because current lineups haven’t been released yet.  This was a slightly above current league average for lineups which one would predict based upon their around average BAT in team status.

That is all for now.  Cubs status hasn’t been done in over two weeks so that report will post tomorrow.  Until then ….