2019 Minor Leagues — AAA

Two snapshots of minors are taken, one halfway through the season and the second at the end of  season which is around September sometime.  This three part series will cover AAA , AA, and A+ minor leagues.  AAA is the highest where many players get moved up and down from MLB.  AA is next and A+ last.  Japanese and other leagues are not covered for simplicity reasons as most MLB players will at some point end up in one of the three league covered here.

The first part to this series will cover AAA.  Both Cubs and White Sox teams will be shown as well as the top 25 players ranked according to this data model.

Iowa Cubs Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-24.3 84.7 430 374 48 36 -2.0 -2.3 Iowa_Cubs_pcl_aaa_CHN

This is the old form team status table showing runs scored (Rs) , Runs Scored Against (Ra) and LR (Lucky Runs).  Lucky runs are those scored where no one got an RBI.  They are irrelevant but included for symmetry with UR (Unearned Runs above average) which is relevant.

The above shows Iowa has had pretty good pitching so far this season but batting suffered.  They also have a winning record with a team WAA of 48-36= +8.  Let’s drill down to their top players.

Top Iowa Cubs Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct Age
+014+ 3.88 Colin_Rea_CHN PITCH 0.698 28
+109+ 1.95 Rowan_Wick_CHN PITCH 0.810 26
+145+ 1.62 Jim_Adduci_CHN BAT 0.635 34
+153+ 1.57 Matt_Carasiti_CHN PITCH 0.762 27
+154+ 1.55 Adbert_Alzolay_CHN PITCH 0.718 24
+164+ 1.51 Dakota_Mekkes_CHN PITCH 0.727 24
+185+ 1.41 Tim_Collins_CHN PITCH 0.813 29
+195+ 1.36 Randy_Rosario_CHN PITCH 0.806 25
XXXXX 1.28 Robel_Garcia_CHN BAT 0.625 26
XXXXX 0.84 Addison_Russell_CHN BAT 0.788 25
XXXXX 0.82 Alec_Mills_CHN PITCH 0.551 27

Nine out of  these guys are ranked in top 200 of AAA which includes all 30 MLB franchise affiliates in both PCL and International leagues.  This model treats the entire class of AAA equally like it treats both AL and NL in MLB equally.

Minor league ranks are not that important since players frequently move from league to league throughout the season.  Minor league records displayed here include a WinPct calculated from WAA and PA or IP as described in this post. A WinPct greater than 0.500 is above average, above 0.600 good, and above 0.700 very good.

Age is also important for minor league players.  At age 36, Jim Adduci has been a professional minor leaguer but his bat has been instrumental to the Iowa Cubs’ winning record this year.

Colin Rea started in 2013 and didn’t play well during his MLB career.   Good numbers in minors don’t necessarily translate into good numbers in MLB.  This model merely shows the past and what these players did this season.   Alzolay for example came up to the MLB Cubs and got shelled.  The above shows he dominated AAA but MLB is so much more difficult.

Note that the 0.788 WinPct for Addison Russell showed he dominated his time in AAA before coming up to the MLB team.

There is a lot more that goes into scouting players which is outside the scope of this data model.  Let’s continue on to the White Sox.

Charlotte Knights Team Status

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
14.2 -13.2 471 464 46 37 6.0 0.2 Charlotte_Knights_int_aaa_CHA

The Knights have a winning record ( +9 ) and decent UR.  BAT slightly above water and the opposite for PITCH.  Based on Pythagorean Expectation they should be around even steven for the year so they must be doing something right to exceed that.

Top Charlotte Knights Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct Age
+144+ 1.64 Dylan_Covey_CHA PITCH 0.864 27
+148+ 1.60 Daniel_Palka_CHA BAT 0.616 27
+173+ 1.47 Matt_Skole_CHA BAT 0.595 29
+175+ 1.47 Zack_Collins_CHA BAT 0.637 24
+176+ 1.47 Odrisamer_Despaigne_CHA PITCH 0.848 32
+199+ 1.34 Jimmy_Cordero_CHA PITCH 0.975 27
XXXXX 1.32 Seby_Zavala_CHA BAT 0.639 25
XXXXX 1.26 Ross_Detwiler_CHA PITCH 0.632 33
XXXXX 1.22 Connor_Walsh_CHA PITCH 0.750 26
XXXXX 1.22 Evan_Marshall_CHA PITCH NA 29
XXXXX 1.20 Dylan_Cease_CHA PITCH 0.579 23

Dylan Cease just had his MLB debut and Evan Marshall is also on the MLB team now.  Don’t follow the White Sox so don’t know any other player above.

Top 25 AAA Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct Age
+001+ 7.22 Zac_Gallen_MIA PITCH 0.856 23
+002+ 6.93 Kevin_Cron_ARI BAT 0.940 26
+003+ 5.71 Ty_France_SDN BAT 0,945 24
+004+ 5.50 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU BAT 0.917 22
+005+ 4.51 Elieser_Hernandez_MIA PITCH 0.923 24
+006+ 4.45 Hector_Noesi_MIA PITCH 0.704 32
+007+ 4.16 Seth_Brown_OAK BAT 0.768 26
+008+ 4.03 Wyatt_Mathisen_ARI BAT 0.765 25
+009+ 4.03 Trevor_Kelley_BOS PITCH 0.981 25
+010+ 3.99 Mitch_Keller_PIT PITCH 0.755 23
+011+ 3.99 Cole_Irvin_PHI PITCH 0.813 25
+012+ 3.95 Jake_Woodford_SLN PITCH 0.690 22
+013+ 3.91 Aaron_Wilkerson_MIL PITCH 0.850 30
+014+ 3.88 Colin_Rea_CHN PITCH 0.698 28
+015+ 3.84 Jarrett_Parker_ANA BAT 0.764 30
+016+ 3.72 Jose_Rojas_ANA BAT 0.720 26
+017+ 3.67 Sam_Hilliard_COL BAT 0.700 25
+018+ 3.63 Sheldon_Neuse_OAK BAT 0.707 24
+019+ 3.61 Carter_Kieboom_WAS BAT 0.743 21
+020+ 3.57 Burch_Smith_MIL PITCH 0.760 29
+021+ 3.57 Roberto_Ramos_COL BAT 0.732 24
+022+ 3.57 Jose_Pirela_SDN BAT 0.892 29
+023+ 3.53 Kyle_Tucker_HOU BAT 0.704 22
+024+ 3.46 Skye_Bolt_OAK BAT 0.802 25
+025+ 3.30 Andres_Machado_KCA PITCH 0.807 26

I don’t know any of these players so can’t comment.  The numbers speak for themselves.  There are some extremely high WinPct here and as always, just because a player dominates AAA does not mean they can even make in MLB.  Even Javier Baez struggled his first couple of MLB seasons.

That is all for AAA league.  AA is next and then Aplus and then … All Star break.  Until then ….