Two snapshots of minors are taken, one halfway through the season and the second at the end of season which is around September sometime. This three part series will cover AAA , AA, and A+ minor leagues. AAA is the highest where many players get moved up and down from MLB. AA is next and A+ last. Japanese and other leagues are not covered for simplicity reasons as most MLB players will at some point end up in one of the three league covered here.
The first part to this series will cover AAA. Both Cubs and White Sox teams will be shown as well as the top 25 players ranked according to this data model.
Iowa Cubs Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -24.3 | 84.7 | 430 | 374 | 48 | 36 | -2.0 | -2.3 | Iowa_Cubs_pcl_aaa_CHN |
This is the old form team status table showing runs scored (Rs) , Runs Scored Against (Ra) and LR (Lucky Runs). Lucky runs are those scored where no one got an RBI. They are irrelevant but included for symmetry with UR (Unearned Runs above average) which is relevant.
The above shows Iowa has had pretty good pitching so far this season but batting suffered. They also have a winning record with a team WAA of 48-36= +8. Let’s drill down to their top players.
Top Iowa Cubs Players
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | WinPct | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +014+ | 3.88 | Colin_Rea_CHN | PITCH | 0.698 | 28 | |
| +109+ | 1.95 | Rowan_Wick_CHN | PITCH | 0.810 | 26 | |
| +145+ | 1.62 | Jim_Adduci_CHN | BAT | 0.635 | 34 | |
| +153+ | 1.57 | Matt_Carasiti_CHN | PITCH | 0.762 | 27 | |
| +154+ | 1.55 | Adbert_Alzolay_CHN | PITCH | 0.718 | 24 | |
| +164+ | 1.51 | Dakota_Mekkes_CHN | PITCH | 0.727 | 24 | |
| +185+ | 1.41 | Tim_Collins_CHN | PITCH | 0.813 | 29 | |
| +195+ | 1.36 | Randy_Rosario_CHN | PITCH | 0.806 | 25 | |
| XXXXX | 1.28 | Robel_Garcia_CHN | BAT | 0.625 | 26 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Addison_Russell_CHN | BAT | 0.788 | 25 | |
| XXXXX | 0.82 | Alec_Mills_CHN | PITCH | 0.551 | 27 |
Nine out of these guys are ranked in top 200 of AAA which includes all 30 MLB franchise affiliates in both PCL and International leagues. This model treats the entire class of AAA equally like it treats both AL and NL in MLB equally.
Minor league ranks are not that important since players frequently move from league to league throughout the season. Minor league records displayed here include a WinPct calculated from WAA and PA or IP as described in this post. A WinPct greater than 0.500 is above average, above 0.600 good, and above 0.700 very good.
Age is also important for minor league players. At age 36, Jim Adduci has been a professional minor leaguer but his bat has been instrumental to the Iowa Cubs’ winning record this year.
Colin Rea started in 2013 and didn’t play well during his MLB career. Good numbers in minors don’t necessarily translate into good numbers in MLB. This model merely shows the past and what these players did this season. Alzolay for example came up to the MLB Cubs and got shelled. The above shows he dominated AAA but MLB is so much more difficult.
Note that the 0.788 WinPct for Addison Russell showed he dominated his time in AAA before coming up to the MLB team.
There is a lot more that goes into scouting players which is outside the scope of this data model. Let’s continue on to the White Sox.
Charlotte Knights Team Status
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.2 | -13.2 | 471 | 464 | 46 | 37 | 6.0 | 0.2 | Charlotte_Knights_int_aaa_CHA |
The Knights have a winning record ( +9 ) and decent UR. BAT slightly above water and the opposite for PITCH. Based on Pythagorean Expectation they should be around even steven for the year so they must be doing something right to exceed that.
Top Charlotte Knights Players
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | WinPct | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +144+ | 1.64 | Dylan_Covey_CHA | PITCH | 0.864 | 27 | |
| +148+ | 1.60 | Daniel_Palka_CHA | BAT | 0.616 | 27 | |
| +173+ | 1.47 | Matt_Skole_CHA | BAT | 0.595 | 29 | |
| +175+ | 1.47 | Zack_Collins_CHA | BAT | 0.637 | 24 | |
| +176+ | 1.47 | Odrisamer_Despaigne_CHA | PITCH | 0.848 | 32 | |
| +199+ | 1.34 | Jimmy_Cordero_CHA | PITCH | 0.975 | 27 | |
| XXXXX | 1.32 | Seby_Zavala_CHA | BAT | 0.639 | 25 | |
| XXXXX | 1.26 | Ross_Detwiler_CHA | PITCH | 0.632 | 33 | |
| XXXXX | 1.22 | Connor_Walsh_CHA | PITCH | 0.750 | 26 | |
| XXXXX | 1.22 | Evan_Marshall_CHA | PITCH | NA | 29 | |
| XXXXX | 1.20 | Dylan_Cease_CHA | PITCH | 0.579 | 23 |
Dylan Cease just had his MLB debut and Evan Marshall is also on the MLB team now. Don’t follow the White Sox so don’t know any other player above.
Top 25 AAA Players
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | WinPct | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +001+ | 7.22 | Zac_Gallen_MIA | PITCH | 0.856 | 23 | |
| +002+ | 6.93 | Kevin_Cron_ARI | BAT | 0.940 | 26 | |
| +003+ | 5.71 | Ty_France_SDN | BAT | 0,945 | 24 | |
| +004+ | 5.50 | Yordan_Alvarez_HOU | BAT | 0.917 | 22 | |
| +005+ | 4.51 | Elieser_Hernandez_MIA | PITCH | 0.923 | 24 | |
| +006+ | 4.45 | Hector_Noesi_MIA | PITCH | 0.704 | 32 | |
| +007+ | 4.16 | Seth_Brown_OAK | BAT | 0.768 | 26 | |
| +008+ | 4.03 | Wyatt_Mathisen_ARI | BAT | 0.765 | 25 | |
| +009+ | 4.03 | Trevor_Kelley_BOS | PITCH | 0.981 | 25 | |
| +010+ | 3.99 | Mitch_Keller_PIT | PITCH | 0.755 | 23 | |
| +011+ | 3.99 | Cole_Irvin_PHI | PITCH | 0.813 | 25 | |
| +012+ | 3.95 | Jake_Woodford_SLN | PITCH | 0.690 | 22 | |
| +013+ | 3.91 | Aaron_Wilkerson_MIL | PITCH | 0.850 | 30 | |
| +014+ | 3.88 | Colin_Rea_CHN | PITCH | 0.698 | 28 | |
| +015+ | 3.84 | Jarrett_Parker_ANA | BAT | 0.764 | 30 | |
| +016+ | 3.72 | Jose_Rojas_ANA | BAT | 0.720 | 26 | |
| +017+ | 3.67 | Sam_Hilliard_COL | BAT | 0.700 | 25 | |
| +018+ | 3.63 | Sheldon_Neuse_OAK | BAT | 0.707 | 24 | |
| +019+ | 3.61 | Carter_Kieboom_WAS | BAT | 0.743 | 21 | |
| +020+ | 3.57 | Burch_Smith_MIL | PITCH | 0.760 | 29 | |
| +021+ | 3.57 | Roberto_Ramos_COL | BAT | 0.732 | 24 | |
| +022+ | 3.57 | Jose_Pirela_SDN | BAT | 0.892 | 29 | |
| +023+ | 3.53 | Kyle_Tucker_HOU | BAT | 0.704 | 22 | |
| +024+ | 3.46 | Skye_Bolt_OAK | BAT | 0.802 | 25 | |
| +025+ | 3.30 | Andres_Machado_KCA | PITCH | 0.807 | 26 |
I don’t know any of these players so can’t comment. The numbers speak for themselves. There are some extremely high WinPct here and as always, just because a player dominates AAA does not mean they can even make in MLB. Even Javier Baez struggled his first couple of MLB seasons.
That is all for AAA league. AA is next and then Aplus and then … All Star break. Until then ….