Cubs White Sox Matchup

Tonight the Cubs play White Sox at Comiskey.  Let’s see how the White Sox have been doing since these two teams last met.

CHA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHA 34 36 -39.6 -19.7 1.5 20190618
CHA 41 43 -48.7 -21.9 0.5 20190706

Since June 18 the White Sox went 7-7 , completely even steven.  BAT declined and PITCH remained around the same, both underwater.  The White Sox are -70 in run differential right now and they are quite fortunate being only 2 games under 0.500.

CHN CHA 07_06_7:15_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 4 0.535 0.549 102 1.45 0.55 0.23
CHA -2 0.488 0.451 92 -2.04 3.00 0.30

Cubs have a better team WAA, and Lineup today, relief about the same between these two teams.  White Sox have a maxed out tier 3 starter pitching tonight. Vegas and TC Sim based upon the above tier numbers are very close, both favoring the Cubs a little, so both lines in this game would be discard.

Let’s see who today’s starters are.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jon_Lester_CHN 1.18 0.560 88.0 0.55
Lucas_Giolito_CHA 4.68 0.720 96.0 3.00

Giolito is their ace and Lester has had some rough outings this season but still above average.  Starting advantage definitely favors White Sox based upon this year’s numbers.  Last season Giolito was number one in the bottom 200 of this data model making him the least valuable player in MLB.  Somehow this season he has turned it around.  Simulations are currently only based upon current year data.  If you factor in career stats Lester is a far better overall pitcher.

CHA Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 4.68 Lucas_Giolito_CHA 96.0
XXXXX 0.40 Ross_Detwiler_CHA 11.0
XXXXX NA Dylan_Cease_CHA 5.0
-032- -2.44 Ivan_Nova_CHA 94.3
-014- -3.51 Reynaldo_Lopez_CHA 98.0
Total -0.93 0.486

A sub 0.500 starting rotation with Giolito carrying the load.

CHA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+081+ 2.25 Aaron_Bummer_CHA 31.3
+088+ 2.21 Alex_Colome_CHA 34.7
XXXXX 1.01 Evan_Marshall_CHA 22.0
XXXXX 0.61 Juan_Minaya_CHA 26.0
XXXXX -0.25 Jace_Fry_CHA 27.7
XXXXX -0.32 Josh_Osich_CHA 29.0
XXXXX -0.88 Jose_Ruiz_CHA 22.0
-062- -2.02 Kelvin_Herrera_CHA 30.7
Total 2.61 0.553

This is around a current league average relief squad based upon current MLB team rosters.  Mediocre relief and below average starters explain their poor PITCH in team status.  If the White Sox decide to become buyers at trade deadline this could change.  Not sure they have the horses to make the playoffs however.

CHA Lineup 07042019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.40 Leury_Garcia_CHA CF-RF-SS 322
XXXXX 0.97 Yoan_Moncada_CHA 3B 322
XXXXX 1.28 Jose_Abreu_CHA 1B-DH 356
XXXXX 0.34 James_McCann_CHA CR 238
XXXXX 0.23 Eloy_Jimenez_CHA LF 238
-054- -2.29 Jose_Rondon_CHA 2B-3B 132
-035- -2.31 Yolmer_Sanchez_CHA 2B 262
-160- -1.11 Ryan_Cordell_CHA RF-CF 158
XXXXX -0.99 Charlie_Tilson_CHA RF-LF-CF 138
Total -4.28 0.462

The above lineup is from their last game  July 4 and it’s below average which one would expect from their very below average BAT in team status.

Not much more to say about these White Sox.   More minor league posts coming next.  Until then ….