Today, July 7, reminds me of the date 7/7/77 so thought it would be interesting to dive into the historical dataset of this data model The historical dataset is derived from retrosheet.org event data that has been compiled to calculate tier numbers for lineups, starters, and relief for each day of each season.
Below is raw data model output for the Cubs game on 7/7/77. It was too much work to figure out how to present this game data using html so just copy/pasted raw data. Explanation for all these numbers below the fold.
processing CHN197707070
--------LINES----------
ELO SLN 0.447 CHN 0.553
SIM SLN 0.438 CHN 0.562
---------EV------------
-----------------------
AWAY SLN 000000000 --> 0
HOME CHN 10000100 --> 2
--------------------------
TIERDATA SLN CHN 197707070 -1 -1 1 -3 -5 CHN
---- AWAY L -> HOME S -- -1 -- AWAY L -> HOME R -- -1 --
AWAY LINEUP 8.76 SLN --> 1.72
HOME STARTER 5.29 Rick_Reuschel_CHN 120.7 --> 3.00
HOME RELIEF 5.98 CHN --> 3.00
---- HOME L -> AWAY S -- 1 -- HOME L -> AWAY R -- -3 --
HOME LINEUP 3.11 CHN --> 0.10
AWAY STARTER -0.42 Larry_Dierker_SLN 31.7 --> -0.62
AWAY RELIEF 4.47 SLN --> 2.65
---- DELTAWAA ---- -5 -------
DELTAWAA SLN 44 37 CHN 49 29 (13 -5)
Cubs played the Cardinals and won 2-0 in 8.5 innings. ELO and TCSim had almost identical expected probabilities for this game, both favoring the Cubs at around 55%. Our Vegas lines only go back to 2011 so no Expected Value (EV) can be calculated.
Rick Reuschel started for the Cubs who we all know and Larry Dierker for the Cardinals. Cubs fielded a maxed out tier 3.00 for Starter and Relief. Reuschel had his second best season in 1977.
Cardinals (AWAY) fielded a much better lineup that day. The DELTAWAA record shows Cardinals were 44-37 (+7) at the start of day 7/7/77 and Cubs were 49-29. (+20) producing a deltaWAA of +13 in favor of the HOME team Cubs.
This produces a TIERDATA record which gets piped into the simulation script to produce a winpct which is an expected probability of this day’s outcome.
At +20 the Cubs were pretty good. Let’s look at the NL East at the end of that day.
NL_East 19770707
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 50 | 29 | 6.3 | 44.3 | -8.6 | |
| PHI | 47 | 32 | 28.8 | 17.3 | 12.4 | |
| SLN | 44 | 38 | 22.8 | 16.3 | 4.4 | |
| PIT | 42 | 38 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 7.4 | |
| WAS | 37 | 43 | -19.2 | -14.7 | -8.6 | |
| NYN | 31 | 51 | -85.7 | 28.3 | 12.4 |
Cubs were in first place and +21 after today’s win. PITCH was way above water as evidenced by maxed out starters and relief in today’s game. Let’s look at the top Cubbies on 7/7/77.
Top Ten Cubs 7/7/77
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +003+ | 6.09 | Rick_Reuschel_CHN | PITCH | |
| +006+ | 5.42 | Bruce_Sutter_CHN | PITCH | |
| +041+ | 2.98 | Bobby_Murcer_CHN | RF | |
| +053+ | 2.62 | Paul_Reuschel_CHN | PITCH | |
| +057+ | 2.46 | Willie_Hernandez_CHN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.99 | Jerry_Morales_CHN | CF | |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Gene_Clines_CHN | LF-RF | |
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Larry_Biittner_CHN | 1B-LF | |
| XXXXX | 0.67 | Greg_Gross_CHN | LF-CF | |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | Steve_Renko_CHN | PITCH |
Plop plop fizz fizz oh what a relief it is Bruce Sutter ranked in top ten of MLB on this day 1977. Five guys in the top 100 including 4 pitchers which one would expect based upon their PITCH in team status.
Note: Paul Reuschel, Rick’s brother, doesn’t finish the year very well and ends up at WAA= -1.05. It was all happy happy joy joy today in 1977 however.
NL_East 1977
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 101 | 61 | 121.0 | 45.0 | 10.2 | |
| PIT | 96 | 66 | 6.0 | 51.0 | 7.2 | |
| SLN | 83 | 79 | 11.5 | 33.0 | 2.2 | |
| CHN | 81 | 81 | -29.5 | -10.0 | -6.8 | |
| WAS | 75 | 87 | -56.5 | -15.0 | 2.2 | |
| NYN | 64 | 98 | -144.0 | 43.0 | 16.2 |
By the end of the 1977 season Cubs drop to 4th place with an even steven record which means they went 31-52 losing a whopping 21 games. BAT tanked and PITCH tanked even more. An end of season top ten list for CHN could be posted but everyone helped out in that losing streak. Winning and losing is usually a team effort for baseball teams.
Instead let’s reminisce and look at the top ten MLB player on this day 1977.
Top Ten MLB 7/7/77
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +001+ | 7.98 | Frank_Tanana_ANA | PITCH | |
| +002+ | 6.72 | Nolan_Ryan_ANA | PITCH | |
| +003+ | 6.09 | Rick_Reuschel_CHN | PITCH | |
| +004+ | 6.03 | Steve_Garvey_LAN | 1B | |
| +005+ | 6.01 | George_Foster_CIN | LF-CF | |
| +006+ | 5.42 | Bruce_Sutter_CHN | PITCH | |
| +007+ | 5.29 | Dave_Winfield_SDN | RF | |
| +008+ | 4.89 | Steve_Rogers_WAS | PITCH | |
| +009+ | 4.83 | Rod_Carew_MIN | 1B |
Cubs had two guys in the top ten on this day 1977. Unfortunately for that team the MLB commissioner determines who goes to the playoffs based upon record after the last game is played — not mid season.
AL_West 19770707
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 47 | 32 | 70.3 | -7.7 | 4.4 | |
| MIN | 46 | 36 | 73.3 | -24.7 | 7.4 | |
| KCA | 43 | 36 | 23.8 | 20.3 | 3.4 | |
| ANA | 39 | 39 | -14.7 | 65.3 | -9.6 | |
| TEX | 39 | 41 | -34.7 | 28.3 | 9.4 | |
| OAK | 34 | 46 | -67.2 | 11.3 | -4.6 | |
| SEA | 35 | 50 | -32.2 | -55.7 | -4.6 |
Sox were +15 and in first place as well. Visions of a subway series started to form along with fear of irrational exuberance and major disappointment which usually happens to Chicago baseball fans and actually did happen (again) in 1977.
Although White Sox gained 3 games the rest of that season, they finished third so both north and south side fans had to watch other teams play in post season. The White Sox had great hitting and mediocre pitching which was opposite of the first place Cubs team on this day 1977.
An here were the top players in the White Sox on this day 1977.
Top Ten White Sox 7/7/77
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +034+ | 3.19 | Richie_Zisk_CHA | RF-DH | |
| +050+ | 2.69 | Lerrin_LaGrow_CHA | PITCH | |
| +087+ | 1.81 | Oscar_Gamble_CHA | DH-RF | |
| +094+ | 1.72 | Lamar_Johnson_CHA | DH-1B | |
| +103+ | 1.62 | Jim_Spencer_CHA | 1B | |
| +107+ | 1.55 | Chet_Lemon_CHA | CF | |
| +109+ | 1.53 | Jim_Essian_CHA | CR | |
| XXXXX | 1.18 | Steve_Stone_CHA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.01 | Jorge_Orta_CHA | 2B | |
| XXXXX | 0.76 | Francisco_Barrios_CHA | PITCH |
They also had 4 guys in the top 100. Most players in top ten were hitters as one would expect looking at their very above average BAT in team status.
That’s all for now. Minor league AA edition coming next. Until then ….