2019 Minor Leagues — AA

This part will focus on the AA minor league.  As always this model compiles data from all AA class players which include  30 MLB affiliates from Southern League, Texas League, and Eastern league as described here.  All AA class players are thrown into one soup bowls and ranked together, batters and pitcher, exactly how it’s done for MLB and any other league.

Players can only be compared to players of the same class.  This means stats from AAA league cannot be combined with stats from AA or A league or MLB league.

This model takes two minor league snapshots, one at halftime (now) and one after season is over for historical purposes.  This report will cover the Cubs and White Sox because — just because ….

Tennessee_Smokies Team Status

6.3 -40.2 336 378 38 43 -4.3 -3.9 Tennessee_Smokies_sl_aa_CHN

This is an old form team status record showing the run differential used to calculate BAT and PITCH.  It shows PITCH is very under water, BAT slightly above water, and slightly below  Unearned Runs above average (UR).

Top Tennessee_Smokies Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct Age
+032+ 2.31 Tyson_Miller_CHN PITCH 0.618 23
+054+ 1.95 Robel_Garcia_CHN BAT 0.907 26
+064+ 1.89 Craig_Brooks_CHN PITCH 0.790 26
+132+ 1.26 Wyatt_Short_CHN PITCH 0.665 24
XXXXX 0.99 Connor_Myers_CHN BAT 0.586 25
XXXXX 0.84 Roberto_Caro_CHN BAT 0.555 25
XXXXX 0.84 Vimael_Machin_CHN BAT 0.561 25
XXXXX 0.69 Jesse_Hodges_CHN BAT 0.599 25
XXXXX 0.67 P.J._Higgins_CHN BAT 0.546 26
XXXXX 0.61 Jared_Young_CHN BAT 0.540 23

WinPct and Age are necessary for minor league reports to show context to the WAA value.  Players move around and sometimes there are players who spend most their career in minor leagues who never could make it in MLB.   The Age column helps determine those players.

This model never sorts on rates unlike what occurs in much of Sabermetrics..  You can’t say a car traveling 65 mph traveled farther than the car traveling 55 mph because you’re missing an important component to the equation — time.   Baseball stats are frequently used by sports announcers and others to deceive by cherry picking favorable time intervals using rates ( hello OPS/OPS+  ) to justify some narrative.  But I digress …. The WinPct rate is included in these minor league tables for informational purposes only.

Can’t comment on any of these players except Robel Garcia who just got called up to the MLB Cubs and hit a couple of home runs already.  His 0.907 rate is quite exceptional.   He’ll show up on our radar the rest of the season and hopefully for a long time in the future.

Birmingham_Barons Team Status

-13.7 -31.0 314 367 35 46 -2.3 -5.9 Birmingham_Barons_sl_aa_CHA

White Sox’ AA team also having a bad year.  Both BAT and PITCH under water.  LR is lucky runs, runs scored without anyone receiving an RBI, like from a balk or wild pitch.  They’re called lucky because it takes no skill from the team that benefits from such tomfoolery but those runs still count when determining who wins a game.

Unlike UR, there is absolutely nothing a team can do to improve Lucky Runs which is why they’re now left out of the MLB team status record.  They’re included in the long form because it’s symmetrical with UR.  LR is part of the BAT books, UR is part of the PITCH books.  All books must balance in this data model; every run must be accounted for.

Top Birmingham_Barons Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct Age
+059+ 1.93 Gavin_Sheets_CHA BAT 0.619 23
+090+ 1.57 Luis_Robert_CHA BAT 0.633 21
+091+ 1.55 Kyle_Kubat_CHA PITCH 0.644 26
+106+ 1.45 Danny_Dopico_CHA PITCH 0.673 25
XXXXX 1.05 Hunter_Schryver_CHA PITCH 0.611 24
XXXXX 0.86 Matt_Foster_CHA PITCH NA 24
XXXXX 0.84 Nick_Madrigal_CHA BAT 0.677 22
XXXXX 0.69 Bernardo_Flores_Jr._CHA PITCH 0.562 23
XXXXX 0.59 Tanner_Banks_CHA PITCH 0.540 27
XXXXX 0.40 Matt_Tomshaw_CHA PITCH 0.551 30

Can’t comment on any of these players because don’t know who they are.  The rankings and WinPct are commentary enough.  Notice that there are a lot of pitchers in Barons’ top ten which doesn’t jive with the very below average PITCH in their team status.   BAT and PITCH are derived from run differential which is a seasonal stat.  Minor league teams are in much more flux than MLB teams and the above shows top ten, not the complete set of players who played this season.  High negative value comes off the books when a player leaves a team and new guys to a league  start out at WAA=0.

Top 25 AA Players

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct Age
+001+ 3.97 Ibandel_Isabel_CIN BAT 0.797 24
+002+ 3.91 Edward_Olivares_SDN BAT 0.732 23
+003+ 3.84 Mitch_Nay_CIN BAT 0.834 25
+004+ 3.72 Gabriel_Cancel_KCA BAT 0.747 22
+005+ 3.67 Anthony_Kay_NYN PITCH 0.749 24
+006+ 3.34 Jake_Fraley_SEA BAT 0.748 24
+007+ 3.32 Dylan_Carlson_SLN BAT 0.694 20
+008+ 3.32 Abraham_Toro_HOU BAT 0.698 22
+009+ 3.17 Cody_Thomas_LAN BAT 0.704 24
+010+ 3.15 Casey_Mize_DET PITCH 0.773 22
+011+ 3.13 Hunter_Owen_PIT BAT 0.726 25
+012+ 3.11 Tucker_Davidson_ATL PITCH 0.682 23
+013+ 3.09 Dairon_Blanco_OAK BAT 0.705 26
+014+ 2.98 Rico_Garcia_COL PITCH 0.697 25
+015+ 2.96 Griffin_Jax_MIN PITCH 0.706 24
+016+ 2.86 Trey_Supak_MIL PITCH 0.633 23
+017+ 2.83 Beau_Sulser_PIT PITCH 0.748 25
+018+ 2.77 Alex_Wells_BAL PITCH 0.667 22
+019+ 2.73 Cody_Poteet_MIA PITCH 0.646 24
+020+ 2.69 Sam_McWilliams_TBA PITCH 0.650 23
+021+ 2.67 Darick_Hall_PHI BAT 0.664 23
+022+ 2.62 Alexander_Guillen_COL PITCH 0.764 23
+023+ 2.58 Heath_Holder_COL PITCH 0.737 26
+024+ 2.56 Pedro_Vasquez_PIT PITCH 0.655 23
+025+ 2.46 Matt_Manning_DET PITCH 0.628 21

These are the top 25 in AA class baseball which encompasse Southern, Texas, and Eastern leagues.  This model does not project prospect value. The above only shows the number of wins they brought their respective teams this season. The above top 25 dominated AA class baseball this season.

Note: In the off WordPress site it will be possible to click on any player above to see his entire career across all 4 leagues covered here; A+ , AA, AAA, and MLB.

All Star break now and there’s one more minor league, A+ , to cover.  Simulation reboot still a work in progress.  That will unfold second half of this season until the playoffs.

The Playoff Horse Race does not look that much different than Part 4 of that series so no need to publish another one of those for a couple of weeks.  A baseball season is a marathon and most teams move either up, down, or sideways at a glacial pace.

That is all for not.  Until then ….